【SMM Analysis：Expectations for the peak season remain; manganese ore imports in October increased MoM.】According to the latest release from the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics show that China's total manganese ore imports in October 2024 were 2.93 million mt, up 7.34% MoM and up 8.15% YoY. The cumulative imports from January to October were 24.59 million mt, down 5.94% YoY. The main reasons for the MoM increase in manganese ore imports in October are: on one hand, overseas market quotations fell, and market sentiment was high as traders, who had been observing earlier, were bearish on the price outlook. On the other hand, October is still the peak season for regular manganese ore purchases, and alloy plants increased their procurement enthusiasm. Looking ahead, current manganese ore inventories in both northern and southern regions are at a relatively high level, and alloy plants are expected to slightly reduce production schedules, leading to cautious manganese ore procurement. The price outlook for manganese ore is expected to fluctuate downward.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on Nov 20, 2024

According to customs data, China imported 690,900 mt of FeNi in October 2024, down 6.3% MoM and down 23.7% YoY. In terms of metal content, the total nickel content in imported FeNi was 85,000 mt, down 5.8% MoM and down 26.6% YoY. Despite the increase in NPI production and exports from Indonesia, FeNi production in New Caledonia and Colombia was affected by domestic turmoil and market downturns, respectively, leading to reduced supply. It is expected that China's FeNi imports will continue to decline in the short term, while Indonesia's NPI exports will reach a historical high.

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The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on Nov 19, 2024