Latest Update in the SMM Aluminum Market

In terms of aluminum billet inventory, according to SMM statistics, as of May 29, the inventory of aluminum billets in major domestic consumption areas reached 128,300 mt, a decrease of 1,900 mt from Monday this week and a decrease of 2,500 mt WoW from Thursday last week. Despite signs of a slowdown in the destocking of aluminum billet inventory, the overall inventory still hovered around 130,000 mt, a low level compared to the same period in the past three years, indicating that inventory levels remained relatively low. From the perspective of outflows from warehouses data, the total outflows from warehouses of domestic aluminum billets during the period from May 20 to May 25 was 44,600 mt, a decrease of 4,900 mt WoW and a decrease of 7,300 mt YoY. Affected by the continuous impact of truck shipments, shipments showed little sign of improvement, indicating a significant weakening in the trading activity of the aluminum billet market and a growing off-season atmosphere. From a regional perspective, there was a gradual increasing trend in the arrival of aluminum billets in the Wuxi area, as manufacturers increased shipments to warehouses due to weakened downstream consumption. Meanwhile, the current Guangdong-Shanghai price spread had widened to 150 yuan/mt, and the price difference of "strong in the east and weak in the south" may promote the flow of aluminum billets between regions. It is necessary to continue to monitor the pace of changes in domestic consumption and the changes in the Guangdong-Shanghai price spread.

[SMM Weekly Aluminum Price Review: Social Inventory Drawdown Exceeds Expectations, Aluminum Prices and Spot Premiums Supported at High Levels] Overall, on the macro side, the domestic favorable atmosphere remains unchanged, while uncertainties persist in overseas macro conditions. On the fundamental side, the unexpected drawdown in domestic aluminum ingot inventory has provided support for aluminum prices and spot premiums. Currently, some industries are expected to weaken during the off-season, but the overall decline is better than anticipated, with demand resilience remaining. Subsequent focus should be on changes in inventory and demand. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade around 20,000-20,500 yuan/mt, while LME aluminum is expected to trade around $2,430-2,490/mt.

[SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review: Market Arrivals Expected to Remain Low, Suppliers Show Clear Reluctance to Budge on Prices]

To better serve our customers and enhance the efficiency of the SMM database, we will optimize and adjust the existing classification of the non-ferrous database in June 2025. This adjustment will not involve any changes to the data.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,636.5/mt. It initially rose to a high of $9,645.0/mt, then fluctuated downward.