Latest Update in the SMM Aluminum Market

【SMM Aluminum Futures Review: Macro Disturbances Suppress Price Flexibility, SHFE Aluminum's Fundamental Support and Demand Release Continue to Compete】Today, SHFE aluminum price fluctuations were primarily driven by macro sentiment. The unexpected acceleration of US core PCE inflation and the repeated disturbances from tariff policies suppressed price flexibility. Meanwhile, the fundamentals maintained bullish support, with the seasonal destocking of "Golden March and Silver April" accelerating, and aluminum ingot inventory approaching the 800,000 mt mark. Coupled with the recovery of downstream restocking demand and the rebound in operating rates, the bottom support for aluminum prices remained solid. Alumina also faced downward pressure, mainly due to the alleviation of supply tightness by imported bauxite, the reduction of procurement demand as aluminum plants actively destocked, and the ample supply of circulating goods. The market's short-term focus remained on the competition between macro policies and the actual release of demand.

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in March 2025 (31 days) increased by 3.7% YoY and 11.2% MoM. The operating capacity of domestic aluminum smelters rose MoM, mainly due to the gradual resumption of production at aluminum smelters, with some of the production resumed in February already yielding output. The proportion of liquid aluminum in domestic aluminum smelters rebounded to normal levels in March, with the industry's liquid aluminum proportion increasing by 3.2 percentage points MoM and 0.15 percentage points YoY to 74.2%. Additionally, due to losses, some downstream rod plants in Guangxi cut production recently, leading to a decline in the proportion of liquid aluminum at some local smelters by month-end. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, domestic aluminum casting ingot production in March increased by 3.1% YoY to around 958,000 mt.

SMM Data: Aluminum Resumption Evident, Proportion of Liquid Aluminum Rebounds to Normal Levels SMM March 31: According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in March 2025 (31 days) increased by 3.7% YoY and 11.2% MoM. The operating capacity of domestic aluminum smelters rose MoM, mainly due to the gradual resumption of production at aluminum smelters, with some resumptions in February already yielding output. The proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic aluminum smelters rebounded to normal levels in March, with the industry's proportion of liquid aluminum increasing by 3.2 percentage points MoM and 0.15 percentage points YoY to 74.2%. Additionally, due to losses, downstream rod plants in Guangxi recently cut production, leading to a decline in the proportion of liquid aluminum at some local smelters by month-end. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, domestic aluminum casting ingot production in March increased by 3.1% YoY to around 958,000 mt.