Behind the Sharp Rises and Falls: The Debate Over 'Black Swans' and 'Gray Rhinos' in the SHFE Tin Market [SMM Analysis]
【SMM Analysis: The Debate Over 'Black Swan' and 'Gray Rhino' in the SHFE Tin Market Amid Sharp Price Swings】Since April 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) has experienced significant volatility. At the beginning of the month, driven by supply-side disruptions such as the earthquake in Myanmar and the suspension of tin mining in the DRC, prices surged to 299,990 yuan/mt, approaching the 300,000 yuan threshold and hitting a new high for the year. However, as the US tariff hike on China took effect (effective April 9) and expectations for the resumption of operations at the Bisie mine in the DRC intensified, market risk aversion surged. The SHFE tin night session recorded a single-day drop of over 9%, hitting a low of 252,000 yuan/mt, the lowest in nearly a month. Subsequently, as the US government announced a 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on certain countries, the intraday decline in SHFE tin narrowed to less than 2%, showing an oversold rebound. As of April 10, the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated weakly within the range of 254,100-266,280 yuan/mt, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensifying......
