Behind the Surge in Lead Prices in March 2025: Multidimensional Impacts of the Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers, Favorable Policies, and Environmental Protection-Driven Production Restrictions, and the April Market Outlook [SMM Analysis]
【SMM Analysis: Behind the Surge in Lead Prices in March 2025: Multi-dimensional Impacts of Supply-Demand Tug-of-War, Policy Benefits, and Environmental Protection-Driven Production Restrictions, and Outlook for April】SMM, March 26: Driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and a favorable macroeconomic environment, the center of lead prices in March 2025 significantly rose compared to February. In early March, the news of the US imposing additional tariffs continued to ferment, increasing market concerns and suppressing the performance of non-ferrous metal futures. After the conclusion of China's Two Sessions, a series of policies to boost consumption were proposed, creating a favorable macro front. However, the imbalance between lead ingot supply increments and raw material supply persisted, leading to a stalemate in the SHFE lead futures market, with the price center hovering around 17,250 yuan/mt. In the spot market, end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery sector remained largely unchanged, with major enterprises maintaining stable production and a weekly comprehensive operating rate of 70-80%. As the traditional off-season approaches, dealers have adopted a cautious approach to procurement, particularly e-bike battery dealers, with most actively maintaining lower inventory levels. Some producers reported a slowdown in new orders, and if battery inventories rise again, production cuts or holidays are being considered for late March.
