Latest Update in the SMM Lithium Market

Recently, the special meeting on ensuring supply and stabilising prices for phosphate fertilizers and the release of Yuntianhua’s initiative aimed to stabilise the domestic fertilizer market for spring plowing. However, the underlying reality of "high sulfur prices" and the strong regulatory measures of "domestic priority and export restrictions" may have a significant impact on the new energy industry, particularly in the field of LFP batteries.

December 12 news: Northern ports: South African high-iron ore at 30-30.5 yuan/mtu, up 1.34% WoW; South African semi-carbonate ore at 34-34.5 yuan/mtu, down 0.58% WoW; Gabon ore at 41.9-43.5 yuan/mtu, up 2.61% WoW; Australian lumps at 41-41.7 yuan/mtu, up 5.56% WoW; South African medium-iron ore at 36.4-37.4 yuan/mtu, up 0.81% WoW. Southern ports: South African high-iron ore at 30.3-30.8 yuan/mtu, down 1.61% WoW; South African semi-carbonate ore at 36.4-37.3 yuan/mtu, down 1.34% WoW; Gabon ore at 41.1-42 yuan/mtu, up 1.22% WoW; Australian lumps at 41.5-42.2 yuan/mtu, up 2.45% WoW; South African medium-iron ore at 37.1-37.6 yuan/mtu, down 1.32% WoW. The manganese ore market continued its previous firm trend, with differentiated performance among varieties, among which the transaction price of high-grade manganese ore rose particularly prominently.

This week, domestic spot refined cobalt prices maintained a fluctuating trend. Supply side, supported by raw material costs, smelters continued to hold prices firm; mid-week, cobalt futures fluctuated significantly amid various market news disturbances, leading to chaotic market quotations. Some traders, concerned about continued price declines, sold off at low prices, while simultaneously, traders outside the industry were actively bullish on cobalt prices, preparing to stockpile. Demand side, amid sharp price fluctuations, downstream procurement remained cautious, maintaining a just-in-time procurement pace. The current price evolution pattern for refined cobalt has not changed, still awaiting cobalt salt price increases to drive its own upward movement.

The cobalt intermediate products market continued its strong trend this week, with limited available supply, maintaining an overall "price without market" pattern. On the supply side, some overseas miners were selected as pilot enterprises and approved to ship trial cargoes, but suppliers held prices firm, with mainstream offers anchored around $25.0/lb. On the demand side, the DRC signed a strategic partnership agreement over the weekend, prompting some domestic enterprises to worry about future shortages of cobalt intermediate products in China, leading to active inquiries and small transactions concluded near $24.5/lb. As of Thursday this week, aside from the pilot enterprises, export procedures for other companies remained slow. Considering shipping schedules and the impact of holidays such as Christmas and the Chinese New Year, it is expected that domestic raw materials may not arrive until after March next year. The logic of structural tightness in raw materials remains unchanged, providing continued support for intermediate product prices to rise.

The cobalt sulphate market was active this week, with the price center gradually moving upward. On the supply side, raw material costs provided rigid support, and smelters held prices firm: offers for MHP and scrap-derived routes were raised to 90,000–92,000 yuan/mt, while intermediate product offers remained at 95,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, some downstream enterprises actively stockpiled, leading to a rapid decline in the availability of low-priced spot goods, and prices gradually increased. Some old stocks priced at 85,000–86,000 yuan/mt last week have now risen to around 88,000–90,000 yuan/mt. Overall, after continued depletion of social inventory, some buyers turned to inquire about high-priced new material from smelters, and a small number of transactions were concluded for MHP and scrap-derived cobalt sulphate. Cobalt sulphate prices still have upward momentum in the short term, and it is expected that recent low prices will stabilize above 90,000 yuan/mt.

Cobalt sulphate prices rose slightly this week, while nickel sulphate prices dropped slightly, and lithium carbonate prices fluctuated. LFP black mass payables per % lithium fluctuated with lithium chemicals this week. As the purchase period for recycling from late November to early December ended, coupled with significant fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures prices due to capital and market sentiment, market purchases were relatively cautious. Meanwhile, upstream grinding enterprises, after observing lithium carbonate supply-demand dynamics and policies, remained relatively optimistic about future prices. Although prices adjusted with futures, the decline was limited. Taking LFP pole piece black mass as an example, current prices stood at 3,600-3,750 yuan/mtu, unchanged WoW from the weekly average, with minor fluctuations in the high-low range. For ternary black mass, nickel and cobalt payables for ternary pole piece black mass currently range from 75.5-77%, up 0.25% WoW, while lithium payables range from 73-75%, also rising slightly WoW. The main reason was the continued increase in cobalt sulphate prices this week: most enterprises held relatively limited cobalt inventory, and after clearing old stock, they had to purchase new material from smelters, pushing prices higher. Additionally, the strategic partnership agreement between the DRC and the US announced on Monday boosted purchasing sentiment among domestic enterprises. The rise in cobalt sulphate prices gradually passed through costs to ternary and LCO segments, driving up both payables and prices for ternary and LCO black mass.

This week, the solid-state battery sector gained significant momentum, with multiple domestic enterprises achieving key breakthroughs in environmental approvals, sample deliveries, and mass production, while overseas players in South Korea and the U.S. intensified technological competition. The industry chain advanced simultaneously across all segments, from cathode and anode materials and electrolytes to battery cell manufacturing, entering a phase of intensive validation and capacity building.