Decline in Both Raw Material Prices Drives Cost Downward; Weak Prebaked Anode Prices Unlikely to Change in Short Term [SMM Analysis]
An aluminum enterprise in Shandong has adjusted the benchmark tender price for prebaked anodes in May 2025, with a decrease of 266 yuan/mt MoM. Meanwhile, a major domestic prebaked anode sales company has also lowered its sales prices, with a MoM decline of 466 yuan/mt. The performance of the raw material side has become a key factor in market fluctuations. Prices of petroleum coke and coal tar pitch have both declined. According to SMM data, as of May 9, the comprehensive cost of prebaked anodes in China had dropped to 4,985 yuan/mt, a significant decrease of 7.08% from April 7. The easing of cost-side pressure has supported the industry's profitability: Based on a one-month production cycle, despite prebaked anode enterprises still operating at a loss, the theoretical loss amount has narrowed by approximately 103 yuan/mt MoM, indicating clear signs of market recovery. Currently, the petroleum coke market is experiencing a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. On the one hand, an increase in the number of refineries undergoing maintenance has provided bottom support for prices. On the other hand, the persistent sluggishness in downstream procurement enthusiasm and strong wait-and-see sentiment have led to significant downward pressure on petroleum coke prices. SMM expects petroleum coke prices to continue their downward trend in May, thereby exerting a sustained impact on the cost side of prebaked anodes. Considering the aforementioned factors, SMM expects prebaked anode prices to remain in the doldrums next month.
