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What Happened in the Cobalt Market After the DRC's Export Ban? And What's Next?
On February 24, 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world's largest cobalt supplier, announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports to address the persistent decline in cobalt prices due to oversupply in the international market. The policy took effect on February 22 and is scheduled for a three-month review to assess its impact and decide on potential adjustments. Since its announcement, this policy has garnered worldwide attention and ignited enthusiasm in the cobalt product market. According to SMM prices, as of March 14, the prices of all cobalt products have seen significant increases. Specifically, the cumulative price increase for cobalt sulfate, cobalt chloride, and cobalt intermediates has exceeded 80%. Why Did This Ban Attract So Much Attention? .....
Supply and Demand Fundamentals Turn Looser, Leading to Inventory Buildup of Bauxite at Ports
SMM March 16 News: According to data from March 14, the weekly domestic port arrivals of bauxite reached 4.145 million metric tons, reflecting a week-over-week increase of 256,000 metric tons. Meanwhile, the weekly departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totaled 4.593 million metric tons, an impressive rise of 1.375 million metric tons compared to the previous week. Similarly, Australia's main ports reported weekly bauxite departures of 1.127 million metric tons, marking an increase of 291,000 metric tons week-over-week.
SMM March 16 News: According to data from March 14, the weekly total port arrivals of bauxite at domestic ports reached 4.145 million mt, an increase of 256,000 mt compared to the previous week. The weekly total port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports reached 4.593 million mt, an increase of 1.375 million mt compared to the previous week. The weekly total port departures of bauxite from Australia's main ports reached 1.127 million mt, an increase of 291,000 mt compared to the previous week.
[SMM Analysis: Tight Supply May Lead to Short-Term Fluctuations in Rare Earth Prices] From the demand perspective, emerging fields such as humanoid robots and the low-altitude economy have brought new growth opportunities to the rare earth industry, potentially boosting the market valuation of rare earth permanent magnet companies. It is estimated that by 2025, the global supply-demand gap for Pr-Nd oxide will reach 4,500 mt, and the improvement in the supply-demand relationship will further support the rebound in rare earth prices.
[SMM Analysis: Short Month Hinders February Prebaked Anode Production Increase, Operating Recovery Fails to Reverse Output Decline] In February 2025, the production of prebaked anodes continued to decline, but overall operating conditions improved compared to the previous month. However, as February is a short month, overall production did not increase significantly. Currently, prebaked anode enterprises are producing based on orders, and industry supply remains relatively sufficient. On the demand side, it is expected that in March, with aluminum enterprises reaching full production after restarting their pots, the demand for prebaked anodes will perform well. Additionally, overseas orders for 2025 are also relatively optimistic, presenting a positive overall demand outlook. In the short term, prebaked anode enterprises are primarily focused on ensuring supply, while downstream aluminum enterprises are slightly increasing their operating rates steadily. SMM predicts that the operating conditions of prebaked anode enterprises may increase slightly in March. Further attention will be paid to the operating conditions of prebaked anode and downstream aluminum enterprises.
