Before the holiday, namely on September 30, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2411 contract opened at 20,355 yuan/mt, with bears reducing positions, reaching a high of 20,635 yuan/mt, a low of 20,330 yuan/mt, and closing at 20,460 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.52%. Yesterday (October 7), LME aluminum opened at $2,622.5/mt, with a high of $2,669/mt, a low of $2,641.5/mt, and closed at $2,654/mt, down $9.5/mt, a decrease of 0.36%.
Summary: On the macro front, during the holiday, with the release of major overseas macro data, the market adjusted expectations for a significant US Fed interest rate cut. The US dollar index fluctuated upward, and overseas macro sentiment was slightly volatile. However, intensive domestic macro policies continued to strongly support the aluminum market. On the fundamentals, domestic aluminum market supply slightly increased, and the reduction expectation in Yunnan decreased. On the cost side, the spot alumina market remained in tight balance, making domestic aluminum costs more likely to rise than fall. On the demand side, during the domestic holiday, most large and medium-sized downstream processing enterprises maintained normal operations. Post-holiday, demand in sectors such as new energy and photovoltaics remained positive, boosting future aluminum consumption expectations. Overall, in the short term, with a favorable macro atmosphere and stable fundamentals, the aluminum market is expected to hover at highs. Continued attention is needed on post-holiday domestic consumption and changes in macro sentiment both domestically and abroad.
