SMM

On May 13th: According to SMM statistics, in terms of domestic aluminum billet inventory in two locations, the inventory of aluminum billet in Guangdong was 79,100 mt, and the inventory of aluminum billet in Wuxi was 16,900 mt, totaling 96,200 mt, down 1,000 mt MoM.

[Steel Mill Price Adjustment] Anhui Changjiang Steel's guidance price for construction materials on May 13: Rebar increased by 40 yuan/mt, while coiled rebar and wire rod both increased by 50 yuan/mt. Current ex-factory prices from Hefei, Ma'anshan, and Nanjing mills are as follows: Earthquake-resistant rebar at 3,290 yuan/mt, earthquake-resistant coiled rebar at 3,530 yuan/mt, and high-speed wire rod at 3,530 yuan/mt. Prices for ordinary, non-earthquake-resistant products of the same specifications are the same. [SMM Steel]

Overseas alumina transactions: On May 12, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $359/mt FOB Western Australia, or $356.5/mt FOB Eastern Australia, with a July shipment schedule.

Overseas alumina transactions: On May 9, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $358/mt FOB Western Australia, with a July shipment schedule.

According to SMM statistics, the social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 8,030 mt on May 13, an increase of 55 mt from the previous trading day.

[Probability of US Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 88.4%] According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 88.4%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 11.6%. The probability of the US Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 59.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 37%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point interest rate cut is 3.8%.

[Consolidating the Stabilization Trend of the Real Estate Market, More Financial Support Policies May Be Implemented in Q2] Recently, the People's Bank of China released the "Implementation Report on China's Monetary Policy for the First Quarter of 2025". Regarding the main ideas for monetary policy in the next phase, the report proposed expanding the scope of using re-lending for affordable housing, continuously consolidating the stable trend of the real estate market, improving the fundamental system of real estate finance, and supporting the construction of a new model for real estate development. Experts interviewed believe that, against the backdrop of continuously consolidating the stable trend of the real estate market, more financial support policies may be implemented in the second quarter of this year. Looking ahead, the fundamental system of real estate finance will also be gradually established, and a series of financing systems compatible with the new model of real estate development are expected to be improved.

[Multiple Regions Continue to Strengthen "Program of Large-Scale Equipment Upgrades and Consumer Goods Trade-ins" to Stimulate Consumption Vitality] Recently, multiple regions across the country have continued to strengthen the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins," adopting various measures to stimulate consumption vitality by optimizing service processes and expanding the scope of subsidies. For example, the Implementation Plan for Special Actions to Boost Consumption in Guangdong Province, issued by the General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province, proposes supporting cities and prefectures in exploring a model of "financial subsidies + enterprise concessions + financial empowerment" based on their industrial development and residents' consumption needs, and providing subsidies for the trade-in of large durable consumer goods. It also continues to support the replacement and renewal of vehicles, expanding the scope of support for vehicle scrappage and renewal, and including eligible China IV vehicle emission standards fuel-powered passenger vehicles in the scope of scrappage and renewal subsidies.

[CICC: If Tariffs Are Further Eased, the US Fed May Be Likely to Cut Interest Rates] A CICC research report stated that if tariffs are further eased, the US Fed may be likely to cut interest rates. Currently, the growth pressure is not evident, with the April non-farm payrolls remaining strong and the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs maintaining resilience. Even if the US Fed wants to take a preemptive response, there is insufficient justification. Moreover, with Powell's term ending in May next year, the risk of an overreaction is significant. Therefore, amidst the "dilemma" of balancing inflation and growth, the US Fed is more likely to choose a wait-and-see approach rather than "pre-emptive action." However, if the subsequent tariff risks can be further eased, the US Fed will have the opportunity to cut interest rates in Q3 and Q4 to alleviate the growth pressure at that time.