SMM

Secondary copper experts predict that domestic copper scrap demand will reach approximately 5.65 million mt in the future, with imports accounting for about 2.1 million mt, mainly sourced from developed countries. Since 2005, China has begun large-scale utilization of copper resources. Considering the 15–20-year scrap cycle, copper scrap resources are expected to gradually increase starting from 2025, with production projected to exceed 4 million mt by then. In terms of national policies, the goal is for recycled metal supply to account for more than 24% of the total by 2025.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and two other departments have set goals for the development of the secondary metals industry, aiming to achieve a production of 4 million mt of secondary copper and 11.5 million mt of secondary aluminum by 2025. By then, the share of secondary metal supply is expected to exceed 24%. To this end, the recycling and comprehensive utilisation system for secondary non-ferrous metal resources will be improved, while regions with high output of scrap metals will be guided to establish resource comprehensive utilisation bases, and a number of regional recycling, pre-treatment, and distribution centers will be planned. In addition, standards for secondary non-ferrous metal raw materials will be improved, enterprises will be encouraged to import high-grade secondary resources, the standardisation of resource comprehensive utilisation will be promoted, and the level of resource conservation and utilisation will be enhanced.

[US November PCE Data Cooled Across the Board, Copper Prices Edged Up Last Friday Night] Macro side, data released last Friday showed that US November PCE data cooled across the board. The annual rate of the November PCE price index recorded 2.40%, below the expected 2.50% and the previous value of 2.30%; the monthly rate recorded 0.10%, below the expected 0.20% and the previous value of 0.20%. Market expectations for the US Fed to cut interest rates warmed up, the US dollar index fell back from two-year highs, benefiting copper prices.....

[SMM Coal and Coke Shipping] The total volume of coal arrivals at Chinese ports tracked by SMM was 9.7327 million mt, up 1.8% MoM. Among them, the total arrivals at 11 main ports were 4.036 million mt (up 13.9% MoM), while arrivals at Guangzhou Port totaled 1.083 million mt (up 21.9% MoM), accounting for 11.1% of the total arrivals.

Last week (2024.12.14-2024.12.20), the total steel shipment volume from ports nationwide tracked by SMM was 7.5196 million mt, down 1.1562 million mt MoM, a decrease of 13%. Among them, the total shipment volume from six major northern ports (Jingtang Port, Caofeidian Port, Bayuquan Port, Tianjin Xingang Port, Huanghua Port, Jinzhou Port) was 2.7557 million mt, down 734,300 mt MoM, accounting for 37% of the total shipment volume. The total shipment volume from three major ports in east China (Shanghai Port, Zhangjiagang Port, Lanbei Port) was 545,200 mt, down 42,800 mt MoM, accounting for 7% of the total shipment volume. The total shipment volume from two major ports in south China (Zhanjiang Port, Fangchenggang) was 532,800 mt, up 125,700 mt MoM, accounting for 7% of the total shipment volume.

[SMM Analysis: Strong Performance in Prebaked Anode Exports in November 2024, Export Volume Hits Annual High] Overall, China's prebaked anode export volume in 2024 saw significant growth, with November's export volume reaching a new annual high. Supported by the strong performance of the domestic raw material market, export prices in December were also adjusted upward. According to SMM's estimates, the total export volume of prebaked anodes in 2024 is expected to exceed 2 million mt, significantly higher than the export level in 2023.

[SMM Popular Science: A Brief Introduction to the Sources of Recycled Materials and Battery Structure] Lithium batteries are rich in valuable metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese. These resources are highly priced, and to carry out lithium battery recycling, it is essential to first understand the raw material sources of lithium battery scrap, as well as the battery structure and pole piece composition.

[SMM Analysis: Domestic Petroleum Coke Demand Improves, November Petroleum Coke Imports Show Recovery] Overall, in November 2024, petroleum coke imports showed recovery as downstream demand for low-sulphur imported coke in the domestic market improved since October, driving strong sales performance. Coupled with slightly tight port spot supply of low-sulphur coke, the price of low-sulphur imported coke continued to rise. This trend has led to a sustained recovery in the domestic petroleum coke market, with port inventory gradually decreasing and traders' sales significantly improving. Against this backdrop, the market overall performed positively, and SMM expects Q4 petroleum coke imports to increase QoQ.

[SMM Analysis: How Chinese Automakers Address Challenges of Going Global] The expansion of Chinese automakers in the European market is no longer a simple "product going global," but a comprehensive competition involving the industry chain, brand strength, and policy coordination.