SMM

As of Thursday, November 21, SMM copper inventories in major regions across the country increased by 2,100 mt compared to Monday, reaching 161,300 mt, but decreased by 3,000 mt compared to last Thursday, marking the fifth consecutive week of destocking, although the destocking speed is slowing down. Compared to Monday, inventories varied across regions, with only Guangdong and Jiangsu showing declines. Total inventory was 104,300 mt higher compared to 5,700 mt in the same period last year, with Shanghai 82,300 mt higher, Jiangsu 16,700 mt higher, and Guangdong 6,000 mt higher.

Specifically, Shanghai's inventory increased by 6,700 mt compared to Monday, reaching 128,700 mt, due to concentrated arrivals of imported copper this week. Jiangsu's inventory decreased by 4,400 mt to 19,100 mt, as consumption in Jiangsu was moderate and arrivals decreased this week. Guangdong's inventory decreased by 1,400 mt to 10,900 mt, as the Shanghai-Guangdong price difference narrowed, reducing southbound shipments. Additionally, downstream enterprises rushed to export, improving consumption towards the end of the week, which is also reflected in the rebound of Guangdong's daily outflows from warehouses.

Looking ahead, we understand that domestic copper supply next week is still expected to be limited, but the arrivals of imported copper will increase, leading to a total supply increase compared to last week. On the downstream consumption side, copper prices remain low, and some copper semis enterprises are rushing to export, so consumption is expected to improve compared to this week. Therefore, we believe that next week will see an increase in both supply and demand, with weekly inventory expected to continue decreasing, but the decline will not be significant.