Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2501 contract opened at 20,555 yuan/mt, reached a high of 20,570 yuan/mt, a low of 20,320 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,415 yuan/mt, down 130 yuan/mt from the previous day, a decrease of 0.63%. Yesterday, LME aluminum opened at $2,606/mt, reached a high of $2,630/mt, a low of $2,581/mt, and closed at $2,602/mt, down $7/mt, a decrease of 0.27%.
Summary: On the macro front, the anticipated tariffs by Trump on Canada, Mexico, and China may trigger a global tariff and trade war, putting pressure on the non-ferrous metals market. Although a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel has been confirmed by multiple parties, geopolitical uncertainties remain high, and market risk aversion sentiment continues to rise. Domestically, positive signals have been released, with the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issuing the "Action Plan for Effectively Reducing the Overall Logistics Costs of Society," and seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issuing the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Digital Finance." On the fundamentals side, aluminum costs fluctuate at highs, raising concerns about production cuts at high-cost enterprises. Downstream demand has slightly rebounded in the short term, stimulated by a rush to export. Regarding inventory, multiple sources report that railway shipments in Xinjiang have continued to improve, temporarily alleviating backlog pressure. With the concentrated arrival of goods in transit, despite continued outflows from warehouses in the past week, inventory buildup is expected this week. The off-season inventory turning point is expected to arrive soon, potentially easing the tight spot market in China. The support from low inventory for aluminum prices has gradually weakened. In the short term, the support logic of high costs and low inventory for domestic aluminum remains, but the support for aluminum prices has weakened. Coupled with the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum semis on medium and long-term aluminum demand, overall market sentiment is under pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the near term.
