Based on SMM processed data from market exchanges, China's refined tin production in November 2024 increased slightly by 1.1% YoY and rose significantly by 9.1% MoM. With the supply of scrap replenished in November, the total production of tin ingots showed a moderate growth trend.
In Yunnan, the quantity of tin ore imported from Myanmar remained low, resulting in continued pressure on local raw material supplies. Most smelting enterprises maintained their current production scale or slightly reduced output. If the tin ore ban in Myanmar persists, it is expected that the production of smelting enterprises in Yunnan will continue to decline.
Meanwhile, smelting enterprises in Jiangxi have actively adopted strategies to address raw material supply challenges, such as expanding the procurement channels for rap tin scrap. Thanks to the seasonal release of some industry scrap, some smelting enterprises had relatively sufficient raw material supplies in November, achieving a slight increase in production. However, given the seasonal impact on scrap supply, it is difficult to maintain the current level, and it is expected that the production schedule of smelting enterprises in Jiangxi will be slightly adjusted downward. In Inner Mongolia and Guangxi, smelting enterprises' production activities remained stable. However, in Anhui and other regions, due to increased difficulty in obtaining raw materials, the production of smelting enterprises was somewhat affected, and it is expected that maintaining future production levels will face challenges.
Considering the above factors, we forecast that in December, the national production of tin ingots may see a slight decline. Given the ongoing uncertainty regarding tin ore imports from Wa State in Myanmar and the increasing prominence of raw material supply issues for smelters, market participants need to remain highly vigilant and closely monitor the latest developments in the raw material market to respond promptly to potential market fluctuations.
