SMM

During the period from November 11 to December 10, SMM prebaked anode prices slightly rose. The benchmark purchase price of a Shandong aluminum enterprise in December 2024 was 3,747 yuan/mt, up 2.10% MoM. According to SMM, the export order price for prebaked anodes in December followed the domestic raw material price increase, adjusting by about 10-20 $/mt. As of now, the anode prices in East China closed at 3,747-6,140 yuan/mt, and the prebaked anode prices in North-West China closed at 4,197-4,537 yuan/mt. Raw material side: During this period, the low-sulphur petroleum coke market saw multiple price increases due to low inventory levels at refineries in North-East China and continued purchasing demand from downstream anode material enterprises, improving the overall sentiment in the petroleum coke market. The supply of medium-sulphur goods remained tight, with overall shipments of these goods performing well; the prices for high-sulphur regular petroleum coke improved, with downstream buyers showing moderate purchasing enthusiasm; overall, petroleum coke prices continued to rise. SMM survey data showed that as of December 10, the average price of petroleum coke at local refineries was about 1,863 yuan/mt, up 15.64% from November 11. In terms of coal tar pitch, prices fluctuated and fell during the period, with the average price as of December 9 at 3,815 yuan/mt, down 9.17% from November 11. Overall, the cost support for prebaked anodes strengthened. Supply side: In November, the operating situation of domestic prebaked anode enterprises did not change significantly. During the month, some areas in Henan, Hebei, and Shandong were subject to emergency controls due to heavy pollution weather, limiting production at some enterprises, while new projects in North-West China continued to release production, making prebaked anode supply relatively sufficient. Demand side: As of the end of November, SMM statistics showed that the existing capacity of domestic aluminum was about 45.71 million mt, with operating capacity at approximately 43.68 million mt. The industry's operating rate increased by 0.46 percentage points YoY to 95.56%. Currently, the operating capacity of domestic aluminum enterprises is mixed, with increases mainly from new projects at an aluminum enterprise in Xinjiang and the resumption of production at aluminum enterprises in Sichuan and Guizhou; reductions mainly from partial production cuts at a Henan aluminum enterprise due to environmental protection requirements and technical maintenance at some enterprises in Chongqing and Guangxi. Entering December 2024, the resumption and new capacity ramp-up are expected to further increase domestic aluminum operating capacity, but due to a potline stoppage for technical modifications at a Guangxi aluminum enterprise expected to affect 100,000 mt/year capacity, and small-scale potline stoppages for technical modifications at enterprises in Sichuan and Chongqing, the overall increase in operating capacity in December is expected to slow down. SMM forecasts that by the end of December, the annualized operating capacity of domestic aluminum will reach 43.69 million mt/year. The prebaked anode industry continues to see strong domestic demand. Brief comment: During the period, a Shandong aluminum enterprise announced its benchmark price for prebaked anodes in December 2024, up 77 yuan/mt MoM. Simultaneously, a major domestic prebaked anode sales company also announced its pricing for December, up 103 yuan/mt MoM. During the period, raw material petroleum coke prices continued to rise, with low-sulphur coke supply tightening and good demand driving prices upwards, continuously improving the overall market. According to SMM calculations, as of December 9, the cost of prebaked anodes in China was about 4,152 yuan/mt, with enterprises still in a loss-making stage on average. Although the industry's profitability is poor, and environmental protection controls will become more frequent as the heating season begins in North China, downstream demand remains strong, and the input of new projects will help stabilize the market. The overall operating rate of the prebaked anode industry is expected to remain relatively stable. Future attention should continue to be paid to the operating rates of prebaked anode and downstream aluminum enterprises.