SMM

Lithium Ore:

This week, spodumene prices remained stable MoM, while lepidolite prices rose slightly. For spodumene, due to the current low inventory levels at overseas mines, overall shipment pressure was relatively small. Coupled with cost factors, the sentiment to stand firm on quotes persisted, with quotations all at or above CIF $860/mt. Occasional transactions were concluded at or above CIF $840/mt, providing some support for the relatively high quotations. Domestically, due to the decent operating rates of smelters on the demand side and previous high-level hedging activities, there was strong demand for high-grade spodumene. However, due to the limited circulation of spot lithium concentrate, domestic high-grade spot spodumene prices did not show a significant downward trend in line with the newly published lithium chemical prices, remaining stable overall. For lepidolite, as the market is currently in a state of undersupply, some non-integrated lithium chemical smelters continued to have purchasing demand. Therefore, suppliers maintained their sentiment to stand firm on quotes despite the downward trend in lithium chemical prices. Additionally, the relatively high auction transaction prices from major lepidolite suppliers recently led to an upward trend in lepidolite prices in the market. Based on the current circulation of lithium ore, lithium ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a range.

Lithium Carbonate:

This week, lithium carbonate spot prices remained stable. From the current market transaction perspective, upstream lithium chemical smelters had previously shipped large volumes to traders, resulting in relatively low inventory levels and minimal shipment pressure. Moreover, as it is the period for negotiating long-term contracts for the coming year, the sentiment to stand firm on quotes remained strong. Downstream material plants showed stronger purchasing sentiment recently, with some active transactions occurring in preparation for stockpiling before January 2025. However, most transactions were conducted with traders. Overall, the transaction price center for lithium carbonate remained stable this week. Looking at the actual supply and demand situation for lithium carbonate, some upstream lithium chemical smelters are expected to undergo maintenance during the Chinese New Year, reducing supply. Meanwhile, downstream material plants also anticipate a reduction in orders. Under the scenario of simultaneous supply and demand reductions, combined with the current market circulation levels of lithium carbonate inventory, spot prices for lithium carbonate are expected to have slight downside room, accompanied by rangebound fluctuations.

Lithium Hydroxide:

This week, lithium hydroxide prices rose slightly. On the supply side, most companies quoted spot orders at or above 70,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, most ternary cathode material companies had limited spot order demand after stockpiling in the previous two weeks. Additionally, some traders conducted transactions based on the monthly average price listed on websites without discounts, which provided some support for the current price increase. Regarding new long-term contracts for the new year, the discount rate was around 98%, a significant increase compared to the end of last year. In terms of production, most companies followed their production schedules, with overall output showing little change from expectations. Some smelters are expected to undergo maintenance and take a break during the Chinese New Year in January, leading to a continued reduction in supply. On the demand side, ternary cathode material plants showed slight growth in December, but overall production is expected to decline in January due to the Chinese New Year holiday and reduced output from small and medium-sized enterprises. Lithium hydroxide prices are expected to continue fluctuating within the current range.

Refined Cobalt:

This week, refined cobalt prices dropped slightly. On the supply side, mainstream refined cobalt smelters maintained stable operating rates, ensuring sufficient spot supply. On the demand side, overseas demand was weak during the Christmas holiday, while domestic demand softened as year-end approached, following some sporadic stockpiling earlier. Overall, the market was relatively quiet, with limited inquiries and transactions, putting downward pressure on spot prices. Looking ahead, as stockpiling demand is largely completed, the short-term supply-demand pattern is expected to remain unchanged, and spot prices are likely to stay weak.

Intermediate Products:

This week, cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable. On the supply side, port inventories were sufficient. On the demand side, cobalt smelters faced high costs and weak demand for finished cobalt products, leading to low willingness to restock raw materials. The raw material market remained relatively calm, with little fluctuation in spot prices. Looking ahead, as the surplus in the forward market is already evident, cobalt intermediate product prices are unlikely to rise.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):

This week, cobalt salt prices continued to decline. On the supply side, cobalt salt smelters maintained low operating rates. On the demand side, the market only saw just-in-time procurement, with overall demand remaining weak and unable to accept high-priced cobalt salts. Transactions were relatively quiet during the week. As year-end approached, some cobalt salt smelters sold at prices below the market level due to cash flow considerations, further depressing spot prices. Next week, the supply-demand pattern is unlikely to change, and spot prices are expected to continue declining.

Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):

This week, Co3O4 prices remained stable. On the supply side, Co3O4 smelters reduced their operating rates. On the demand side, only a few companies placed sporadic new orders, and demand in the LCO market was mediocre, primarily driven by just-in-time restocking. The overall market remained weak on both supply and demand sides. Next week, some companies may lower prices to clear year-end inventories, coupled with the continued decline in raw material cobalt salt prices, weakening cost support for Co3O4. Spot prices are likely to drop slightly.

Nickel Sulphate:

As of today, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,377 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate between 26,000 and 26,920 yuan/mt, and the average price rose slightly WoW. From a cost perspective, the recent rebound in LME nickel prices provided some cost support. On the demand side, this week marked a traditional procurement period for nickel salts, with some precursor plants inquiring in the market, though overall market activity was low. Considering the firm pricing stance of smelters, most chose to wait and see. On the supply side, nickel salt smelters maintained their sentiment to stand firm on quotes, with low inventory levels and limited circulation of nickel salts. In the context of weak demand from both buyers and sellers, nickel sulphate prices are expected to remain stable.

Ternary Cathode Precursors:

This week, prices for 5-series consumer-grade and 8-series power-grade ternary cathode precursors rose slightly, while 6-series consumer-grade prices remained stable. In terms of raw materials, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices rose slightly, while cobalt sulphate prices declined slightly. On the demand side, overall demand for ternary cathode materials was strong this month, with increased production schedules at material plants. On the supply side, production at top-tier ternary cathode precursor enterprises in December showed slight increases, although the year-end surge seen in previous years was limited this year due to inventory control measures by some top-tier enterprises. Looking at January production schedules, top-tier enterprises are expected to reduce production to varying degrees, mainly due to the Chinese New Year shutdowns and logistics issues. Overall, January precursor production is expected to weaken slightly. In summary, with the nickel salt market in a supply-demand balance, ternary cathode precursor prices are likely to remain stable.

Ternary Cathode Materials:

This week, ternary cathode material prices rose slightly, with 6-series and 8-series materials showing more significant increases compared to 5-series. Metal sulphate prices for raw materials showed little change WoW. For lithium chemicals, lithium carbonate prices stopped declining and rebounded slightly this week, while lithium hydroxide prices continued their slight upward trend. As a result, the metal material costs for 5-, 6-, and 8-series ternary cathode materials increased, with high-nickel grades experiencing more pronounced cost increases due to the larger rise in lithium hydroxide prices.
In terms of ternary cathode material production, domestic top-tier ternary material producers maintained high operating rates in December, while small and medium-sized producers significantly reduced or halted production. Moving forward, the production schedule of top-tier ternary material enterprises in January is expected to remain at a high level, driven by battery enterprises' expectations for a rush in power battery installations and exports. Some ternary material enterprises are seeing an upward trend in January orders compared to the current level. However, due to the Chinese New Year break and the continued production cuts by small and medium-sized ternary material enterprises, the total production of ternary materials in January is expected to slightly decline compared to December. Demand side, downstream battery manufacturers' demand remained robust at year-end. The expected decline in the production schedule of power battery manufacturers in January is also relatively small, and market activity remains high. LFP: This week, LFP prices showed little change overall, with a slight increase. Lithium carbonate prices stabilized this week after previous declines, and next year's long-term contracts are expected to be signed mostly without discounts or with minimal discounts. Processing fees saw little change this week, remaining largely in line with long-term contract prices and relatively stable. However, material producers have shown strong intentions to raise processing fees next year, with a clear sentiment to stand firm on quotes. This week, a tender for LFP by a battery manufacturer failed, as upstream and downstream parties have yet to reach a consensus and are currently in a negotiation phase. Operating rates of top-tier and second-tier LFP enterprises remained high this week, and China's LFP production in December is not expected to see significant reductions. Overall, the LFP market continued to operate at a high level of prosperity this week, with no signs of order declines. Iron Phosphate: Iron phosphate prices continued to rise recently, with sulphuric acid and industrial ammonium prices remaining high and stable. Ferrous sulphate prices continued to increase, with the delivered price reaching approximately 450 yuan/mt and showing an upward trend. The production costs of iron phosphate using ammonium and sodium methods continued to rise. Driven by both high costs and robust demand, iron phosphate enterprises showed strong sentiment for price increases, raising prices by 300-500 yuan/mt, with transaction prices concentrated around 10,500-11,000 yuan/mt. This week, being both month-end and year-end, price negotiations for iron phosphate are still ongoing. LCO: This week, LCO prices remained stable, with the latest prices for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V LCO at 134,000/138,000/150,000 yuan/mt, unchanged from last week. On the raw material side, prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate and Co3O4 showed no significant changes this week, keeping LCO costs stable with little fluctuation in market prices. On the supply side, LCO production in December declined due to slower year-end stockpiling by enterprises, as downstream companies mostly purchased as needed, leading to weaker demand. LCO prices are expected to show a slight downward trend in the future. Anode: This week, anode prices remained stable. Cost side, downstream anode demand remained high, with low-sulphur petroleum coke refineries performing well in shipments and maintaining low inventory levels. Low-sulphur petroleum coke prices remained high this week. Oil-based green needle coke prices were stable but remained low, with the overall industry operating rate still low. Downstream anode manufacturers had limited demand, and with new capacity expected to be released, needle coke producers are likely to adopt a price stabilization strategy in the short term. Graphitisation outsourcing faced high electricity costs during the dry season, leading to price increase expectations. However, due to sluggish demand for outsourced graphitisation, price hikes are difficult to implement, and prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Demand side, downstream customers were actively stockpiling, supporting good demand for anodes. Downstream buyers mainly focused on securing procurement, resulting in low sentiment for price suppression. Against the backdrop of low anode prices and persistently high raw material costs, anode manufacturers showed strong sentiment for price increases during a tender with a top-tier battery cell enterprise. However, as the procurement price of this enterprise had been below the industry average, the expected price increase is more of a correction for previous low prices and may have limited impact on boosting overall industry procurement prices. Artificial graphite anode prices are expected to remain stable in the future. Separator: This week, lithium battery separator material prices remained stable. Domestic customers were rushing installations at year-end, while overseas customers were stockpiling in advance. Downstream demand remained relatively assured, keeping separator production schedules at high levels. Separator enterprises maintained high operating rates, with good material production and sales performance. On the price side, after previous price wars and customer price suppression, separator material prices are now at relatively low levels. Separator enterprises, with good order conditions, are focusing on stable pricing to reduce competition intensity. Downstream customers, aiming to ensure stable material supply, have also temporarily eased price suppression, ensuring procurement volumes. However, given the current surplus in separator capacity and the gradual release of new capacity, separator material prices may continue to decline in the future. Electrolyte: This week, electrolyte prices remained stable. On the supply side, LiPF6 prices were stable, and the market was in a negotiation phase, with electrolyte manufacturers mainly purchasing LiPF6 as needed. On the demand side, battery cell manufacturers' demand for electrolytes remained relatively stable. Cost side, prices for LiPF6, solvents, and additives were temporarily stable. Currently, electrolyte prices are primarily influenced by LiPF6 prices. However, due to price suppression by battery cell manufacturers, electrolyte prices remained stable. The prices for ternary power battery electrolyte ranged from 21,100 to 29,550 yuan/mt, while LFP battery electrolyte prices ranged from 16,800 to 25,550 yuan/mt. In the short term, cost fluctuations are expected to cause electrolyte prices to oscillate within a certain range. Sodium-Ion Battery: This week, with the continued decline in prices of major materials and battery cells, the cost-effectiveness of sodium-ion batteries has become increasingly prominent, and market acceptance is expected to further improve. The commissioning of polyanion cathode material production lines not only marks the expansion of industry capacity but also injects confidence into the market with the early confirmation of 2025 sales orders. By 2025, the sodium-ion battery market size is expected to reach approximately 5 GWh, indicating significant growth potential. Against this backdrop, hard carbon anode materials, known for their low cost and high cost-effectiveness, have garnered attention and are expected to become a new hot topic in the industry. As the year-end approaches, sodium-ion battery enterprises are actively planning new product development and marketing strategies for the coming year to seize market opportunities. Recycling: This week, lithium battery recycling scrap prices showed a slight downward trend. On the material side, affected by year-end market demand, lithium carbonate spot prices continued to weaken this week. Although prices rebounded on Friday, the impact on scrap prices was limited. Meanwhile, nickel prices rose slightly due to increased demand, while cobalt prices continued to decline. Under the dual influence of material price fluctuations and weakened downstream market demand, LFP battery scrap prices declined, but the price drop was limited due to year-end stockpiling by some recycling enterprises and the sentiment to stand firm on quotes among battery manufacturers. NCM battery scrap prices remained stable, influenced by various material price fluctuations. In terms of actual market transactions, with the peak of energy storage and power battery installations at year-end having passed, and a bearish outlook for the Q1 market, recycling enterprises showed low stockpiling willingness, and overall market transactions remained sluggish. Downstream and End-User: On December 21, LG Energy Solution's US subsidiary announced an agreement with US new energy investor Excelsior Energy Capital to provide 7.5 GWh of energy storage systems, along with integration and full life cycle services. The first batch is scheduled for delivery in April 2026, with all projects meeting US domestic requirements. All projects will adopt LG Energy Solution's latest containerized energy storage solutions and LFP batteries, aiming to optimize energy efficiency and enhance safety. LG Energy Solution will provide all system integration services, AEROS™ software control systems, and related services to support the systems and operators throughout the project lifecycle. This agreement builds on LG's growth in the US grid-scale battery energy storage market. Previously, LG signed a four-year battery energy storage system supply agreement with US company Terra-Gen, under which LG will supply up to 8 GWh of modular containerized LFP battery energy storage systems from 2026 to 2029, with these systems manufactured in North America. 》Subscribe to view SMM new energy product spot historical prices 》Click to view SMM new energy industry chain database News: 【CATL's subsidiary Funeng Times New Energy increases registered capital from 10 million yuan to 3 billion yuan】 Tianyancha shows that recently, Ningde Runkang Technology Co., Ltd. underwent a business change, with its name changed to Ningde Funeng Times New Energy Co., Ltd., and its registered capital increased from 10 million yuan to 3 billion yuan. Its business scope changed from the production and sales of daily-use masks (non-medical) to battery manufacturing, battery sales, and new energy technology R&D. The legal representative changed from Yusheng He to Le Zhang, along with changes in several senior executives. The company was established in June 2020 and is wholly owned by CATL. 【Xiaomi Auto collaborates with NIO's charging and energy replenishment network】 According to Cailian Press, Xiaomi Auto announced a collaboration with NIO's charging and energy replenishment network, integrating over 14,000 NIO charging piles into Xiaomi's charging map. 【CPCA: Passenger car retail sales reached 1.692 million units from December 1-22, up 25% YoY】 CPCA data shows that from December 1-22, passenger car retail sales reached 1.692 million units, up 25% YoY and 14% MoM. Year-to-date retail sales reached 21.95 million units, up 6% YoY. From December 1-22, new energy passenger car retail sales reached 817,000 units, up 60% YoY and 4% MoM. Year-to-date retail sales reached 10.413 million units, up 43% YoY. SMM New Energy Research Team Cong Wang 021-51666838 Rui Ma 021-51595780 Ziya Lin 86-2151666902 Ye Yuan 021-51595792 Disheng Feng 021-51666714 Ying Xu 021-51666707 Yanlin Lü 021-20707875 Yujun Liu 021-20707895 Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711