This week, the ferrous metals series prices fluctuated rangebound. On the news front, at the beginning of the week, the fiscal work conference emphasized the need to implement a more proactive fiscal policy by 2025 and to deploy a stimulus policy package. Meanwhile, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference highlighted the goal of stabilizing the real estate market by 2025. In the spot market, steel prices stabilized after earlier declines during the week, with end-user purchasing sentiment improving and transactions showing WoW improvement.
In the short term, with winter stockpiling expectations, raw material prices are unlikely to exhibit a clear trend. For steel, steel inventory continued to decline this week, with demand resilience remaining strong despite the off-season, while export data fluctuated at high levels, and the imbalance in steel fundamentals remained relatively small. Recently, the spread of HRC-rebar profit margins has narrowed, raising concerns about further price fluctuations and potential impacts on production switch. In the absence of macro policy stimulus, short-term steel prices are not likely to rise.
