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[SMM Analysis] Monthly Refined Nickel Production Analysis
Dec 31, 2024, at 3:49 pm
The new year is approaching. Although the end of January is affected by the New Year holiday, leading refined nickel enterprises have not yet shown intentions to cut production. However, some small and medium-sized domestic refined nickel enterprises may implement small-scale production cuts due to relatively small profit margins combined with holiday factors. In January 2025, national refined nickel production is expected to decrease 0.3% MoM and increase 27.68% YoY.
In December 2024, national refined nickel production increased 2.2% MoM and was up 27.6% YoY. The industry's monthly operating rate stood at 73%, basically flat compared to the previous month, with a slight increase. The growth was still primarily driven by the continuous production expansion of top-tier enterprises.
From a fundamental perspective: December is traditionally an off-season, and domestic alloy electroplating demand did not show significant improvement. However, nickel prices in December were predominantly on a downward trend. Coupled with the arrival of some Russian nickel long-term contracts in late December, the reflow of Jinchuan-branded nickel plates from exports, and shipments from some refined nickel enterprises, spot premiums/discounts were under pressure. The absolute price for downstream purchases was relatively low, and overall purchase willingness was moderate.
Regarding export profitability: Export profitability narrowed significantly during the month, which may have dampened the enthusiasm of refined nickel enterprises with export and LME delivery qualifications to expand production.
As the new year approaches, although the New Year holiday at the end of January may have some impact, top-tier refined nickel enterprises have not yet shown intentions to cut production. However, domestic small and medium-sized refined nickel enterprises may implement small-scale production cuts due to limited profit margins and holiday factors.
It is expected that in January 2025, national refined nickel production will decrease 0.3% MoM while increasing 27.68% YoY.