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Macro
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01
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【National Bureau of Statistics: Manufacturing PMI in December at 50.1%, Continuing Expansion】
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing PMI in December stood at 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.2%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing a significant rebound in non-manufacturing activity. The composite PMI output index was 52.2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting an accelerated expansion in the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises.
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Industry and Downstream
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01
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【SMM HRC Inventory: Zhangjiagang and Shenyang Inventories Continue to Decline】
This week, HRC inventory in Zhangjiagang was 458,000 mt, down 27,000 mt WoW (-5.57%); YoY decline was 11.41% (Gregorian calendar) and 14.87% (Lunar calendar).
This week, HRC inventory in Shenyang was 86,000 mt, down 1,700 mt WoW (-1.94%). YoY decline was 35,300 mt (-29.1%).
02
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【December SMM Steel Mill Using Externally Purchased Billets Operating Rate】Operating Rates of Steel Mills Using Externally Purchased Billets Continue to Decline, January to See Concentrated Shutdowns
According to an SMM survey, as of December 31, the operating rate of steel mills using externally purchased billets, mainly producing construction materials, was 25.29%, down 0.92 percentage points MoM, but up 2.93 percentage points YoY.
03
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【SMM HRC Shipments】Mixed Changes in Arrivals in South and East China Markets This Week
SMM Steel reported on December 31 that, according to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipment volume of mainstream markets this week was 269,300 mt, down 31,600 mt WoW.
04
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【Leyoujia Research Center: Shenzhen Real Estate Market Recorded 92,459 Residential Transactions in 2024, Up 44% YoY】
According to Leyoujia Research Center, in 2024, Shenzhen recorded 37,972 new residential presale contracts and 54,487 second-hand residential contracts, totaling 92,459 transactions, up 44% YoY compared to 64,389 transactions in 2023. Additionally, second-hand transaction prices slightly declined by 3%, but the decline was significantly narrower compared to the -12% in 2023. In Q4, the market showed a comprehensive "stabilization and recovery" trend.
05
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【China's Annual Water Conservancy Investment Reached a Record High】
On December 31, the Ministry of Water Resources released data showing that in 2024, China implemented 47,000 water conservancy projects, completing an investment of 1.35 trillion yuan, setting a new annual record. Over 20,000 rural water supply projects were completed, improving water supply security for over 100 million rural residents. More than 1,300 irrigation projects were constructed or modernized, accelerating the foundation for rural revitalization. Efforts to implement water-saving policies and restore river and lake ecosystems were intensified, with 94 inter-provincial and 375 inter-city river water allocations completed, achieving full coverage of key river and lake ecological flow targets. Nationwide, groundwater over-extraction was reduced by 31.9% compared to 10 years ago, and new soil erosion control areas covered 64,000 square kilometers.
06
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【Henan: Lifting Restrictions on Commercial Housing Policies, Encouraging Ready-to-Move-In Sales】
On December 30, the Henan Provincial Government website disclosed the "Notice on Several Policy Measures to Accelerate High-Quality Development of the Service Industry." The notice mentioned fully boosting housing consumption by lifting restrictions on commercial housing policies, encouraging ready-to-move-in sales, supporting local governments in reasonably increasing the upper limit of housing provident fund loan amounts, and allowing an increase of up to 20% for multi-child families and high-level talents. It also supports the use of provident fund loans for purchasing allocated affordable housing with a minimum down payment ratio of 15%. Flexible employment personnel are encouraged to adopt a loan-based contribution system, and local governments are encouraged to promote commercial-to-public and combined loan businesses.
07
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【Starting Today, Existing Individual Housing Provident Fund Loan Rates Are Lowered】
Starting January 1, 2025, individual housing provident fund loan rates are reduced. On May 17, 2024, the People's Bank of China announced the "Notice on Lowering Individual Housing Provident Fund Loan Rates," reducing the rates by 0.25 percentage points. According to the regulations, housing provident fund loans issued before this date will adopt the new rates starting January 1, 2025.
08
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【SMM Rebar Inventory: Mixed Changes in Rebar Inventory This Week】
This week, rebar inventory in Hangzhou was 438,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of 4,000 mt WoW, up 0.92%.
This week, rebar inventory in Beijing was 388,300 mt, with an inventory reduction of 3,500 mt WoW, showing a slight decline and easing inventory pressure.
As of December 31, total construction material inventory in Xi'an this week was 460,800 mt, up 43,300 mt WoW (+10.37%).
As of December 31, total construction material inventory in Guiyang this week was 33,700 mt, down 900 mt WoW (-2.6%). Among them, rebar inventory was 15,400 mt, down 2,600 mt WoW, while wire rod inventory was 18,400 mt, up 1,800 mt WoW.
09
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【SMM Electric Furnace Operating Rate】Electric Furnace Operating Rates Slightly Increased, Most Steel Mills Have Announced Annual Shutdown Plans
According to an SMM survey, as of December 31, the operating rate of 50 electric furnace steel mills mainly producing construction materials was 38.20%, up 0.44% WoW. The capacity utilization rate was 39.88%, up 0.67% WoW. The daily average production of construction materials was 88,800 mt, up 1,500 mt WoW.
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Other Hot Topics
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⭕【PBOC: 7,204.55 Billion Yuan of Bonds Issued in November】The People's Bank of China released the financial market operation data for November 2024, showing that 7,204.55 billion yuan of bonds were issued in November. Treasury bonds accounted for 878.43 billion yuan, local government bonds 1,314.11 billion yuan, financial bonds 1,110.94 billion yuan, corporate credit bonds 1,349.7 billion yuan, credit asset-backed securities 12.06 billion yuan, and interbank certificates of deposit 2,500.11 billion yuan.
⭕【Han Wenxiu of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission: Reasonably Control New Real Estate Land Supply, Activate Idle Land and Commercial Properties】Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Office, emphasized in an article the importance of effectively preventing and resolving risks in key areas. The focus is on mitigating risks in the real estate market, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions, ensuring no systemic risks occur. Efforts should continue to stabilize the real estate market, accelerate urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, and fully unleash the potential of rigid and improved housing demand. Measures include reasonably controlling new real estate land supply, activating idle land and commercial properties, and advancing the disposal of unsold commercial housing. The aim is to establish a new model for real estate development, build foundational systems, and provide "good houses" that meet the high-quality living needs of the people. Risks in local small and medium-sized financial institutions should be addressed prudently, with coordinated efforts from central and local governments to combat illegal financial activities.
⭕【Shanghai Second-Hand Housing Single-Day Trading Volume Hits Annual High】 According to online real estate data, on December 28 (Saturday), Shanghai recorded 1,466 second-hand housing transactions in a single day, surpassing the previous record of 1,334 transactions on October 13, setting a new annual high. On December 29 (Sunday), the trading volume remained high, with 1,248 transactions. Over the weekend, a total of 2,714 transactions were recorded, marking the highest weekend trading volume of the year. Additionally, online real estate data showed that during the nine weekend days in December, second-hand housing (including commercial properties) trading volume exceeded 1,000 units daily, with an average of 1,256 units per day.
⭕【BYD: NEV Sales Reached 4.2721 Million Units in 2024, Up 41.26% YoY】BYD announced that its NEV sales in December 2024 reached 514,800 units, with cumulative NEV sales for January-December totaling 4.2721 million units, up 41.26% YoY.
