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SMM, January 2: Raw Material Market: Silica: This week, silica prices remained stable. Currently, the mine-mouth price of low-grade silica in Yunnan is 340-350 yuan/mt. The mine-mouth price of high-grade silica in Inner Mongolia is 360-390 yuan/mt, in Hubei is 420-450 yuan/mt, and in Jiangxi is 440-460 yuan/mt.
Entering January, due to the impact of New Year's Day and upcoming Chinese New Year restrictions, mining activities have become increasingly constrained, coupled with tightening transportation capacity. Downstream silicon metal raw material procurement for the Chinese New Year has mostly concluded, and recent demand for silica from downstream silicon enterprises is not strong. Overall, demand and order activity at mine-mouths are expected to recover significantly in February-March next year.
Silicon Coal: Silicon coal prices remained stable this week. Currently, the ex-factory price of silicon coal (granular) in Ningxia is 1,420-1,530 yuan/mt, silicon coal (mixed) in Ningxia is 1,260-1,280 yuan/mt, in Xinjiang is 2,100-2,150 yuan/mt, and in Shaanxi is 940-960 yuan/mt.
Recently, some large-scale silicon coal enterprises in Xinjiang signed 2025 silicon coal supply agreements with leading downstream silicon enterprises. From the order situation, downstream silicon enterprises' demand for silicon coal is weakening further before the Chinese New Year. Most silicon metal manufacturers have completed stocking silicon coal raw materials for the Chinese New Year. Coupled with the further weakening of operating rates among silicon metal manufacturers in south-west China by the end of 2024, silicon coal market demand is expected to decline further starting in January, with downstream procurement demand for silicon coal likely to recover in February-March next year.
Electrodes: This week, electrode prices remained stable. Currently, the ex-factory price of ordinary power carbon electrodes (diameter 960-1,100mm) is 7,400-7,800 yuan/mt. The ex-factory price of ordinary power graphite electrodes (diameter 960-1,100mm) is 11,000-12,000 yuan/mt, for diameter 1,272mm is 12,000-13,000 yuan/mt, and for diameter 1,320mm is 13,000-14,000 yuan/mt.
The demand for electrodes used in silicon production remains weak under the continued impact of production cuts by silicon enterprises in south-west China by the end of 2024. Although recent electrode costs have been strongly supported, the long production cycle of electrodes used in silicon production slows the transmission of cost fluctuations. Coupled with weak downstream demand, the overall upward momentum for prices is limited, and prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short term.
Petroleum Coke: During the week, petroleum coke prices showed slight weakness amidst stability. Mainstream refineries maintained steady shipments, while local refineries experienced relatively average shipment conditions. As most downstream enterprises had completed stockpiling earlier, current restocking is mainly based on rigid demand. SMM expects petroleum coke prices to remain stable with slight adjustments in the short term. As of now, the average price of petroleum coke from local refineries is approximately 1,863 yuan/mt, down 1.48% from last Thursday. Meanwhile, Formosa coke prices range from 1,080 to 1,130 yuan, with prices remaining relatively stable due to slightly weak downstream demand.
Silicon Metal Market:
This week, silicon metal market prices declined further, with market sentiment remaining sluggish. In the spot market, as of January 2, the price of above-standard #553 silicon metal in east China was 11,200-11,300 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon metal was 11,500-11,700 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; and #421 silicon metal (for silicone) was 12,300-12,500 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. Spot silicon metal supply remains abundant, with suppliers engaging in cut-throat competition on prices. Downstream procurement transaction centers continued to weaken. In the futures market, the most-traded Si2502 contract fluctuated downward during the week, hitting a new low. On Tuesday, the intraday low fell below 11,000 yuan/mt, while on Thursday, the futures market recovered to around 11,050 yuan/mt.
On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises' operating rates remained basically stable this week. During the Chinese New Year, polysilicon enterprises are expected to maintain normal production. Due to the production cuts in December, the reduction will be reflected in January, leading to a slight MoM decrease in demand for silicon metal in January. Recently, some polysilicon enterprises released silicon powder tender orders. From the mindset of some completed transactions or negotiations, due to the decline in silicon block prices, silicon powder prices also showed a downward trend. Operating rates of silicone enterprises remained basically stable this week, with some monomer plants expected to undergo small-scale maintenance before the Chinese New Year. Recently, silicone monomer enterprises mainly focused on destocking and restocking based on demand. Primary aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises maintained stable operating rates, while secondary aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises experienced weaker operating rates due to environmental protection factors, though the overall impact was relatively limited. Aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises procured in an orderly manner based on demand.
From December to January, silicon metal supply and demand continued to show mutual weakness. According to SMM data, silicon metal production in December was around 332,000 mt, down 18% MoM. Silicon metal production in January is expected to decline further. Based on supply-demand balance calculations, including supplies of silicon metal (Si≥97%) and secondary silicon, without new large-scale production cuts or shutdowns on the supply side, the silicon industry is unlikely to achieve effective destocking.
In the past 1-2 weeks, downstream users concentrated on restocking before the Chinese New Year, leading to slightly improved transaction activity compared to before. Spot supply in the market remains abundant, and industrial silicon spot prices are expected to remain at low levels in the near term.
Silicone Market:
This week, domestic silicone DMC prices ranged from 12,900 to 13,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 13,200 yuan/mt, temporarily stable. D4 prices ranged from 12,900 to 14,100 yuan/mt, with an average price of 13,500 yuan/mt, temporarily stable. Silicone oil prices ranged from 14,700 to 16,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 15,350 yuan/mt, temporarily stable. 107 silicone rubber prices ranged from 13,200 to 13,500 yuan/mt, temporarily stable. Raw silicone rubber prices ranged from 13,800 to 14,200 yuan/mt, temporarily stable.
This week, domestic silicone DMC prices remained stable. Downstream enterprises showed low enthusiasm for procurement, but enthusiasm is expected to increase due to pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling. Current market transaction activity is average, but monomer enterprises have low inventory levels and no willingness to offer discounts. Downstream product trading volumes slightly increased compared to last week. Some end-user enterprises, anticipating price increases, have started early procurement, though stockpiling volumes have not shown explosive growth, with overall performance showing steady growth. For 107 silicone rubber, due to the gradual holiday shutdown of the real estate construction sector, pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling has started, leading to increased transaction volumes. However, silicone oil and raw silicone rubber enterprises have not seen significant changes in procurement activity, maintaining stability overall. Subsequent price centers for various product series are expected to continue to rise.
Polysilicon Market:
Polysilicon: This week, mainstream transaction prices for P-type dense material ranged from 36 to 38 yuan/kg, while N-type silicon material transaction prices ranged from 39 to 43 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices showed slight fluctuations amidst stability this week. With the listing of futures, market activity increased slightly. Coupled with downstream manufacturers exceeding expectations in order signing for Chinese New Year stockpiling, polysilicon inventory at the end of December dropped to just over 200,000 mt. Some polysilicon manufacturers subsequently raised their quotations, with the highest price reaching 45 yuan/kg. However, downstream acceptance remains limited, with both upstream and downstream parties largely adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Silicon Wafers: This week, domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers were priced at 1.05-1.1 yuan/piece, N-type 210R wafers at 1.15 yuan/piece, and N-type 210mm silicon wafers at 1.42-1.45 yuan/piece. Silicon wafer prices continued to rise slightly this week, mainly for 210R and 210 sizes. Currently, overall silicon wafer supply remains slightly tight, with strong market sentiment for price increases. On January 2, an earthquake in Ningxia caused power outages at some manufacturers, which is expected to reduce January silicon wafer production.
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