SMM, January 2:
Price Review:
As of this Thursday, the SMM regional weighted index stood at 5,675 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt WoW. Specifically, Shandong reported 5,660-5,720 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt WoW; Henan reported 5,590-5,670 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt WoW; Shanxi reported 5,600-5,700 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt WoW; Guangxi reported 5,680-5,780 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; Guizhou reported 5,680-5,800 yuan/mt, flat WoW; and Bayuquan reported 5,860-5,940 yuan/mt.
Overseas Market:
As of January 2, 2025, FOB Western Australia alumina prices were $670/mt, with ocean freight rates at $22.45/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.32, translating to an external selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 5,807 yuan/mt, 132 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remained closed. No new overseas spot alumina transactions were reported this week.
Domestic Market:
According to SMM data, as of this Thursday, the national weekly operating rate for alumina increased by 0.34 percentage points WoW to 86.27%. Among them, Shandong's weekly operating rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points WoW to 92.11%; Shanxi's weekly operating rate increased by 0.17 percentage points WoW to 77.40%; Henan's weekly operating rate increased by 0.83 percentage points WoW to 70.00%; and Guangxi's weekly operating rate increased by 0.97 percentage points WoW to 93.93%. During the period, spot alumina transaction prices maintained a slight downward trend. This week, aluminum smelters in Xinjiang tendered for some spot alumina, with reported transaction prices at 5,740-5,770 yuan/mt delivered to Xinjiang. Additionally, an aluminum smelter in Xinjiang purchased 2,000 mt of spot alumina at a transaction price of 5,750 yuan/mt delivered to Xinjiang, sourced from Shanxi and Henan. In Qinghai, an aluminum smelter purchased 15,000 mt of spot alumina at a transaction price of 5,880 yuan/mt delivered to Qinghai. In Henan, 2,000 mt of spot alumina were transacted at an ex-factory price of 5,530 yuan/mt. In Shanxi, 2,000 mt of spot alumina were transacted at an ex-factory price of 5,400 yuan/mt. In Guangxi, 1,600 mt of spot alumina were transacted at a price of 5,580 yuan/mt.
Overall:
Recently, weekly operating rates for alumina showed a slight rebound, with a slight increase in alumina supply. Meanwhile, alumina demand slightly declined due to technological transformations and production cuts in aluminum smelters in Guangxi, Sichuan, and other regions. The previously tight alumina supply situation has improved. By the end of December, aluminum smelters' alumina raw material inventories slightly rebounded, while downstream restocking and purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Acceptance of high-priced spot alumina decreased, and with reports of some low-price transactions, suppliers' willingness to sell increased. In the short term, spot alumina prices are expected to maintain a slight downward trend.
