Lithium Ore:
This week, lithium ore prices remained basically flat WoW. For spodumene, Australian and Brazilian mines showed no significant changes in their firm pricing stance, with quotes generally maintained at CIF $850/mt and above. African ore prices, influenced by the recent continuous fluctuations in futures prices, were mostly determined by miners and traders based on these prices, resulting in little WoW change. Domestic ore, affected by lower temperatures in recent months impacting mining costs and production levels, saw a slight reduction in output. Sellers exhibited stronger reluctance to sell, with most transactions conducted under long-term contracts and few spot orders available.
For lepidolite, due to sustained demand from some high-operating-rate enterprises and the lack of significant improvement in supply, high-grade lepidolite prices remained at elevated levels with little WoW change.
In the short term, lithium ore prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound along with lithium carbonate prices.
Lithium Carbonate:
This week, the center of spot transaction prices for lithium carbonate shifted downward. The weekly average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,100 yuan/mt, and for industrial-grade lithium carbonate, it was 71,800 yuan/mt, both down by approximately 500 yuan/mt WoW. Based on current market transactions, as this week coincided with the year-end period, some enterprises were focused on annual financial reports, leading to weaker procurement sentiment. Additionally, in January 2025, both supply and demand for lithium carbonate are expected to decline. Some upstream lithium chemical plants have maintenance schedules, and under the pessimistic impact of weakening downstream demand, lithium carbonate production in January is projected to decrease by 9% MoM. Downstream material plants have mostly completed pre-Chinese New Year inventory stocking, and with reduced production schedules expected in January, procurement sentiment has further weakened. Considering the anticipated dual decline in supply and demand for lithium carbonate, along with the available inventory levels, lithium carbonate spot prices are expected to exhibit sideways movement.
Lithium Hydroxide:
This week, lithium hydroxide prices increased slightly by 250 yuan/mt WoW.
In the market, upstream lithium chemical plants continued to quote prices at 70,000 yuan/mt and above. The frequently reported January maintenance-related production reductions further supported their firm pricing stance. Meanwhile, downstream ternary cathode material plants and end-users showed some inquiry activity, but due to the current high price levels and the lack of bulk just-in-time procurement plans, their purchase willingness remained weak.
Overall, lithium hydroxide prices have shown no significant upward momentum recently due to declining downstream demand and the completion of most pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream sectors. Prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound.
Refined Cobalt:
This week, refined cobalt prices dropped slightly. Supply side, mainstream refined cobalt smelters maintained high operating rates, and overall spot inventories in the market were sufficient. Demand side, downstream demand for alloys and magnetic materials remained limited. Market-wise, year-end stockpiling across various sectors has largely concluded, and market trading sentiment was subdued during the week. Overall, the short-term supply-demand relationship is unlikely to reverse, with a severe surplus expected in the future. Therefore, refined cobalt spot prices are unlikely to rise in the short term.
Intermediate Products:
This week, cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable. Supply side, port inventories were sufficient. Demand side, downstream cobalt smelters significantly reduced production, and bulk demand was limited. Market-wise, the year-end market was relatively calm, with little change in the overall supply-demand pattern, and spot prices remained stable. Next week, the overall market situation is expected to persist, with spot prices fluctuating downward.
Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):
This week, cobalt salt prices pulled back slightly. Supply side, cobalt salt production decreased due to generally low operating rates at smelters. Demand side, the ternary cathode precursor and Co3O4 markets remained sluggish, with cobalt salt demand still weak. Market-wise, cobalt salt demand was sporadic, and some producers sold below market prices due to cash flow pressures, leading to a decline in spot prices. Next week, cobalt salt prices are expected to continue falling, but as they have already dropped below cost levels, the downside room is limited.
Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):
This week, Co3O4 market prices remained stable. Supply side, market supply from Co3O4 smelters slightly decreased. Demand side, LCO market demand was mediocre, mainly driven by rigid restocking needs, with limited trading volume. Looking ahead to next week, as raw material cobalt salt prices continue to decline, cost support for Co3O4 will weaken, and spot prices may drop slightly. However, as downstream LCO inventories are low and procurement demand persists, the downside room for Co3O4 prices is limited.
Nickel Sulphate:
This week, the LFP market price saw a slight decline, with an overall average decrease of about 110 yuan/mt. Lithium carbonate prices dropped rapidly this week, down by approximately 450 yuan/mt. Although processing fees showed no significant changes this week, upstream producers' sentiment to stand firm on quotes suggests that processing fees may rise slightly in the near term. Currently, the market mainly follows December's long-term agreement prices, which remain relatively stable. Recently, leading battery manufacturers have been negotiating with downstream enterprises regarding next year's LFP supply. According to market research agency SMM, LFP processing fees are expected to rise slightly overall. Supply side, the LFP industry's operating rate remained high this week. Demand side, year-end production schedules at downstream battery cell manufacturers remained robust, with significant YoY growth.
Ternary Cathode Precursors:
This week, prices for consumer-grade 5-series, 6-series, and power-grade 8-series ternary cathode precursors remained unchanged from last week. Raw material-wise, nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate prices remained stable. Demand side, overall demand for ternary cathode materials weakened in December due to downstream control of finished product inventories. Looking ahead to January, demand for ternary cathode material production is expected to remain sluggish. Supply side, production at leading ternary cathode precursor enterprises increased slightly, with an overall industry production rise of about 1% MoM. In January, production is expected to decline significantly due to weak downstream demand, the Chinese New Year holiday, and production line maintenance at some major enterprises. Price forecast: Cost side, nickel sulphate prices are expected to remain stable, while cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate prices may decline, leading to varying degrees of price drops across ternary cathode precursor series. High-nickel products are likely to see smaller declines, while low-nickel products may face more significant price adjustments.
Ternary Cathode Materials:
This week, with no changes in sulphate prices, the significant drop in lithium carbonate prices on Monday led to varying cost reductions for 5-series and 6-series ternary materials. Meanwhile, 8-series high-nickel ternary materials maintained synchronized increases due to the stable upward trend in lithium hydroxide prices. In December, domestic ternary cathode material production decreased by 6.5% MoM but increased by 7.2% YoY. This month, leading enterprises maintained high concentration levels, while production levels at small and medium-sized enterprises further declined. Coupled with year-end adjustments in finished product inventories by some downstream battery enterprises, orders for ternary cathode materials decreased. Demand side, domestic ternary power battery cell production in December also dropped by about 6% MoM, as battery enterprises reduced production schedules due to inventory control and weakening rush-for-installations expectations. Looking ahead to January 2025, domestic ternary cathode material production is expected to decrease by 4.5% MoM. Market concentration among leading enterprises is expected to increase further, with most manufacturers showing slight production reductions in January, except for a few enterprises with expected production increases.
LFP:
This week, LFP market prices saw a slight decline, with an overall average decrease of about 110 yuan/mt. Lithium carbonate prices dropped rapidly this week, down by approximately 450 yuan/mt. Although processing fees showed no significant changes this week, upstream producers' sentiment to stand firm on quotes suggests that processing fees may rise slightly in the near term. Currently, the market mainly follows December's long-term agreement prices, which remain relatively stable. Recently, leading battery manufacturers have been negotiating with downstream enterprises regarding next year's LFP supply. According to market research agency SMM, LFP processing fees are expected to rise slightly overall. Supply side, the LFP industry's operating rate remained high this week. Demand side, year-end production schedules at downstream battery cell manufacturers remained robust, with significant YoY growth.
Iron Phosphate:
Iron phosphate prices continued to rise, with phosphate prices showing slight increases, industrial ammonium prices remaining stable, and ferrous sulphate prices showing an upward trend. Iron phosphate production costs are expected to continue rising before the Chinese New Year. In January, iron phosphate production will maintain high operating rates, with only a few enterprises scheduling maintenance during the holiday, slightly impacting overall production. At the beginning of January, iron phosphate enterprises showed strong sentiment for price increases, raising prices by 300-500 yuan/mt, with transaction prices concentrated around 10,500-11,000 yuan/mt and some reaching as high as 11,500 yuan/mt. Iron phosphate enterprises have begun price negotiations with downstream LFP enterprises.
LCO:
This week, LCO prices remained stable, with 4.2V, 4.4V, and 4.5V LCO priced at 134,000 yuan/mt, 138,000 yuan/mt, and 150,000 yuan/mt, respectively, unchanged from last week. The main reason was the stable prices of raw materials, including battery-grade lithium carbonate and Co3O4, keeping LCO costs steady. In December, LCO production decreased by 3% MoM. As the year-end approached, end-use demand weakened, and battery cell manufacturers mainly purchased as needed, leading to slight order declines and reduced production schedules. Looking ahead, LCO prices are expected to show a slight downward trend due to continued weak downstream demand and slower year-end stockpiling, with the short-term supply-demand pattern unlikely to change.
Anode:
This week, anode prices remained stable. Cost side, low-sulphur petroleum coke prices remained high, with slight increases at some refineries. Oil-based needle coke, previously at low prices with limited profitability, showed some upward pricing tendencies. However, due to weak downstream demand, prices remained in a state of negotiation and are expected to remain stable in the short term. Graphitisation costs remained high during the dry season due to elevated electricity costs. Combined with price suppression from downstream anode manufacturers, graphitisation outsourcing profits approached cost levels, leading to upward pricing tendencies. However, weak market demand for graphitisation outsourcing made price increases difficult to achieve, keeping prices relatively stable in the short term. Demand side, downstream customers were still in a rush-for-installations phase before the year-end, with demand at annual highs and shipments in an ideal state. With anode prices at low levels and raw material costs remaining high, anode enterprises faced significant pressure on survival and profitability, resulting in strong desires for price increases. However, constrained by price suppression from downstream battery cell manufacturers, prices remained stagnant.
Separator: This week, lithium battery separator prices remained stable.
Supply-demand-wise, domestic downstream end-users were actively rushing installations at year-end, while overseas customers also advanced stockpiling due to the early Chinese New Year in 2025. Overall, downstream demand remained strong, supporting separator enterprises in maintaining high operating rates and ensuring stable separator material production and optimistic sales. Price-wise, after previous rounds of competitive bidding, separator prices were already at low levels. With guaranteed operating rates, enterprises reduced bidding intentions and mainly sold at stable prices, resulting in minimal price fluctuations. However, as separator enterprises continued to expand capacity and faced surplus capacity, competition for market share is expected to persist. Additionally, year-end downstream customers began new rounds of bidding or price negotiations, with continued cost-reduction demands. Therefore, separator material prices are likely to remain under pressure, with potential for further declines.
Electrolyte:
This week, electrolyte prices remained stable. Supply side, LiPF6 prices were stable, and the market was in a negotiation phase, with electrolyte manufacturers mainly purchasing LiPF6 as needed. Demand side, battery cell manufacturers' demand for electrolytes remained stable. Cost side, prices of LiPF6, solvents, and additives were temporarily stable. Currently, electrolyte prices are primarily influenced by LiPF6 prices. However, price suppression from battery cell manufacturers kept electrolyte prices stable. Prices for ternary power battery electrolyte ranged from 21,100-29,550 yuan/mt, while LFP battery electrolyte prices ranged from 16,800-25,550 yuan/mt. In the short term, cost fluctuations are expected to cause electrolyte prices to fluctuate within a certain range.
Sodium-Ion Battery:
Recently, prices for key materials and battery cells in sodium-ion batteries have continued to decline, effectively reducing production costs and enhancing market competitiveness. This trend is expected to persist in the near future, further promoting the adoption and application of sodium-ion batteries. The successful commissioning of polyanion cathode material production lines marks an accelerated pace of capacity expansion in the industry. This will help alleviate supply-demand imbalances and meet growing market demand.
Recycling:
This week, the lithium battery recycling scrap market remained stable overall. Year-end market fluctuations were minimal, with lithium carbonate spot prices showing rangebound fluctuations and slight declines this week, having little impact on scrap prices.Meanwhile, due to demand factors, nickel prices have remained basically stable recently, and cobalt prices have only slightly decreased. Against the backdrop of material price fluctuations and stable downstream market demand, LFP battery scrap prices have been almost unaffected. As some recycling companies stockpile at year-end, battery producers continue to support prices, with few plans to lower scrap battery prices before the year-end. Prices for uncrushed materials remain firm. Under relatively stable material prices, the coefficient for ternary battery scrap has also remained basically stable. In terms of actual transactions, with the end of the year-end peak period for ESS and power battery installations, and cautious expectations for the Q1 market next year, recycling companies' willingness to stockpile has decreased, and overall market transactions have been sluggish. Downstream and End-User: On December 30, the EPC bid results for the Shandong Independent Shared ESS Power Station Project were announced. The total construction scale of the project is 700MW/2.8GWh, including the 300MW/1,200MWh Independent Shared ESS Power Station in Dawang Town, Guangrao, Dongying, Shandong; the 200MW/800MWh Independent Shared ESS Power Station in Shunwang Town, Zhucheng, Shandong; and the 200MW/800MWh Independent Shared ESS Power Station in Xialu Town, Donggang, Shandong. The project owner is Yankai (Guangrao) Energy Technology Co., Ltd., and the project is located in Guangrao County, Dongying City, Shandong Province. The first bid winner is the consortium of China Gezhouba Group Three Gorges Construction Engineering Co., Ltd. and China Gezhouba Group Electric Power Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 4.611 billion yuan, equivalent to 1.647 yuan/Wh. The second bid winner is the consortium of Henan Dacheng Construction Engineering Co., Ltd. and Henan Yuhong Construction Group Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 4.5229 billion yuan, equivalent to 1.615 yuan/Wh. The third bid winner is the consortium of Haotian Construction Group Co., Ltd. and Shandong Xinda Engineering Design Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 4.6133 billion yuan, equivalent to 1.648 yuan/Wh. 》Subscribe to view historical spot prices of SMM new energy products 》Click to view the SMM New Energy Industry Chain Database News: 【CATL, BAIC, and Xiaomi Auto Joint Venture Renamed as Times BAIC】 Beijing Times Power Battery Co., Ltd. recently underwent a business registration change, with its company name changed to Times BAIC (Beijing) New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. The business scope has been expanded to include technical services, technical development, technical consulting, technical exchange, technical transfer, technical promotion, battery sales, and import and export of goods. Additionally, some key personnel have been changed. The company was established in May 2024, with Meng Xiangfeng as the legal representative and a registered capital of 1 billion yuan. It is jointly held by CATL, BAIC Hailanxin Energy Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd., Xiaomi Auto Technology Co., Ltd., and Beijing Jingneng Technology Co., Ltd. 【LG Energy Solution to Adjust Investment Plans and Cut Costs to Address EV Demand Slowdown】 South Korean battery manufacturer LG Energy Solution stated on Thursday that it will readjust its investment plans and cut additional costs to address the long-term slowdown in EV sales. The company's CEO, Dong-Myung Kim, mentioned in a New Year message to employees: "We will take measures to address unprecedented challenges." Kim expects EV sales to rebound after 2026. 【Li Auto Launches "Trade-In Subsidy" Guarantee Offering 15,000 Yuan Cash Subsidy Per Vehicle】 Li Auto has launched a trade-in subsidy guarantee. Users who order and take delivery of Li Auto vehicles between January 1 and January 31, 2025, and whose "car purchase invoice location has not introduced a local trade-in subsidy" or "car purchase invoice location has introduced a local trade-in subsidy but the user does not meet the conditions for the local subsidy" by March 31, can enjoy a cash subsidy of 15,000 yuan per vehicle provided by Li Auto. If a local trade-in subsidy policy is announced in the region before vehicle delivery, the above guarantee will be terminated. SMM New Energy Research Team Cong Wang 021-51666838 Rui Ma 021-51595780 Ziya Lin 86-2151666902 Ye Yuan 021-51595792 Disheng Feng 021-51666714 Ying Xu 021-51666707 Yanlin Lü 021-20707875 Yujun Liu 021-20707895 Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711
