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Macro
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01
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【The Third Session of the 16th Beijing Municipal People's Congress to Be Held on January 14】
The Third Session of the 16th Beijing Municipal People's Congress will be held on January 14, 2025. The proposed agenda includes: hearing and reviewing the Beijing Municipal Government Work Report; reviewing the report on the implementation of Beijing's 2024 National Economic and Social Development Plan and the draft 2025 plan, and examining and approving the report on the implementation of the 2024 plan and the 2025 plan; reviewing the report on the implementation of Beijing's 2024 budget and the draft 2025 budget, and examining and approving the report on the implementation of the 2024 budget and the 2025 budget; hearing and reviewing the work report of the Standing Committee of the Beijing Municipal People's Congress; hearing and reviewing the work report of the Beijing High People's Court; and hearing and reviewing the work report of the Beijing People's Procuratorate.
02
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【Caixin China Services PMI Rose to 52.2 in December 2024 as Supply and Demand Accelerated Expansion】
The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) for December 2024, released today, recorded 52.2, rebounding 0.7 percentage points from November, marking the highest level since June 2024 and indicating accelerated expansion in service sector activities. The Caixin China Composite PMI for December pulled back 0.9 percentage points to 51.4.
03
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【Financial News Under PBOC: Multiple Positive Factors to Support RMB Exchange Rate Stability】
An article in Financial News, supervised by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), stated that in 2025, there will be multiple positive factors supporting the stability of the RMB exchange rate. First, China's macroeconomic fundamentals will become more solid. The package of incremental support measures introduced since September 2024 will gradually take effect. This year, the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies will further consolidate the positive momentum of China's economic recovery. International opinion widely believes that China's recent major decisions will inject strong momentum into its economy and bring more opportunities for the world to share in China's development dividends. Second, China's international balance of payments is expected to remain balanced. From January to November 2024, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 39.79 trillion yuan, up 4.9% YoY; the goods trade surplus was $884.6 billion, a record high for the same period, up 18.4% YoY. In recent years, supported by high-quality domestic economic development, China's foreign trade enterprises have continuously improved their resilience and ability to cope with external shocks. In 2025, China's current account is expected to maintain a surplus, providing strong support for balancing foreign exchange supply and demand. Third, China's foreign exchange market remains resilient. Market participants' trading behavior has become more rational, and the concept of exchange rate risk neutrality among business entities has strengthened, providing an important micro-foundation for the stable operation of the foreign exchange market and the balance of foreign exchange supply and demand.
04
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【Financial News Under PBOC: PBOC Sends Clear Signal to Stabilize Exchange Rate】
An article in Financial News, supervised by the PBOC, noted significant changes in the wording regarding the exchange rate in the press release of the PBOC Monetary Policy Committee's Q4 2024 meeting. It emphasized "enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilizing market expectations, strengthening market management, resolutely addressing behaviors that disrupt market order, firmly preventing the formation and self-fulfillment of one-sided expectations, and resolutely guarding against the risk of exchange rate overshooting, maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level." Compared to the Q3 meeting, this press release conveyed a clearer and stronger signal to stabilize the exchange rate, removing the phrase "enhancing exchange rate flexibility" and emphasizing "strengthening market management, resolutely addressing behaviors that disrupt market order, firmly preventing the formation and self-fulfillment of one-sided expectations, and resolutely guarding against the risk of exchange rate overshooting," while reinstating the previous "three resolutes" expression. This demonstrates the PBOC's firm determination to maintain RMB exchange rate stability and serves as an important basis for judging the future direction of exchange rate policy, helping stabilize foreign exchange market expectations. Past experiences of multiple rounds of RMB exchange rate appreciation and depreciation show that the PBOC has a well-equipped toolbox and extensive experience to address RMB depreciation and is capable of maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
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Industry and Downstream
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01
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【Shougang Jingtang's 1,420 Acid Rolling Line Accelerates Production and Efficiency】
At the beginning of 2024, discussions in the acid rolling operation area about the annual production target plan and increasing rolling speed were met with doubts and concerns. Facing challenging market conditions, the acid rolling operation area launched the "Lighthouse Action" to achieve the goal of "monthly production capacity exceeding 85,000 mt and stable production at 1,750 meters per minute." Through in-depth discussions, analyzing market conditions, and identifying internal advantages and potential, the team addressed issues such as "vibration during high-speed rolling" and "stable operation of edge trimming shears at increased speeds" by engaging directly with on-site operators and inspectors. The operation area emphasized uniting efforts to achieve the annual target with no room for retreat.
02
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【HBIS Tangsteel Rolls Out Ultra-Thin SiMn Alloy Spring Steel】
Recently, HBIS Group Tangsteel successfully rolled out ultra-thin SiMn alloy spring steel with a thickness of only 2.0 mm, reaching the industry's limit. Testing confirmed that the product's surface quality, dimensional accuracy, and other indicators met process design requirements. SiMn alloy spring steel is a high-end product with high elastic limits, fatigue strength, and strong plasticity and toughness. It also features excellent properties such as conductivity, non-magnetic characteristics, high-temperature resistance, and corrosion resistance, making it widely applicable in automotive and machinery manufacturing, as well as electronic components production. Tangsteel closely aligns with market and customer needs, accurately captures market trends, leverages new area advantages, and actively promotes the R&D and marketing of differentiated products.
03
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【Global Manufacturing PMI Rose MoM in December 2024 as Global Economy Weakly Recovered】
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the Global Manufacturing PMI for December 2024 today (6th). The index rose slightly for two consecutive months, indicating a weak recovery in the global economy. In December 2024, the Global Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM. The index has risen slightly for two consecutive months, reaching a new high since H2 2024, showing a steady upward trend in global manufacturing.
04
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【Henan Plans to Issue 200 Million Yuan in Consumption Vouchers to Boost New Year Spending】
The Henan Provincial Government Information Office held a press conference on the morning of January 6 to announce policies and measures to ensure a "good start" for the economy in Q1 2025. Wang Zhenli, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Director of the Provincial Department of Commerce, answered questions about specific measures to promote consumption and stabilize foreign trade in Henan in 2025, particularly in Q1. The province plans to issue 200 million yuan in New Year consumption vouchers, focusing on key areas such as retail, catering, culture and tourism, and accommodation, while encouraging local governments to follow suit.
05
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【China's Retail Industry Prosperity Index Rose Significantly in January】
According to the China General Chamber of Commerce, China's retail industry prosperity index rose significantly in January, with retail enterprises showing steadily increasing confidence in the consumer market. The latest data from the China General Chamber of Commerce showed that in January, China's retail industry prosperity index reached 51.1%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM and 0.2 percentage points YoY. Among them, the commodity operation index was 51.8%, up 1.8 percentage points MoM; profitability and per-customer transaction value indices rose 4.9 and 2.0 percentage points MoM, respectively, both hitting new highs in nearly a year. The data indicates that with the implementation of Chinese New Year consumption and a new round of trade-in policies for household appliances and other goods, county-level market consumption has become more active, significantly boosting consumption.
06
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【Chongqing's 2025 National Subsidy Policy for Trade-In of Home Appliances and Furniture to Launch Soon】
Chongqing's 2025 national subsidy policy for the trade-in of home appliances and furniture is set to launch soon. The policy covers eight categories, including televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, computers, water heaters, range hoods, and household stoves, as well as kitchen and bathroom renovations, smart home upgrades, old house refurbishments, and senior-friendly furniture. Consumers can enjoy government subsidies of 15%-20% in the form of direct payment reductions.
07
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【Shanghai's 2024 Major Projects Investment Reached 238.3 Billion Yuan, Setting a New Record】
According to the Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Management Committee and the Major Projects Office, Shanghai's major projects investment in 2024 reached a new record of 238.3 billion yuan, completing 103.6% of the annual plan of 230 billion yuan, up 5.6% YoY. This marks the third consecutive year since 2022 that investment has exceeded 200 billion yuan. At the beginning of the year, officials from the Major Projects Office stated that the 2024 investment plan for major projects was guided by the implementation of national strategies and aimed at stimulating industry vitality. Over the year, a number of large-scale projects exceeded investment expectations, with 21 new projects started and 35 completed, significantly surpassing the initial targets of 10 and 25, respectively. Investments in major infrastructure projects such as rail transit, municipal roads and bridges, and water conservancy exceeded 100 billion yuan, laying a solid foundation for investment.
08
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【Henan to Implement Low Valley Industrial Electricity Prices During Chinese New Year】
The Henan Provincial Government issued the "Several Policy Measures to Ensure a 'Good Start' for the Economy in Q1 2025." The measures include implementing low valley industrial electricity prices during Chinese New Year, adjusting the period from 11:00 to 14:00 from January 28 to February 6, 2025, to a valley period. Industrial enterprises' electricity consumption during this period will be charged at valley electricity prices, encouraging continuous production during the holiday and greater consumption of new energy electricity.
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Other Hot Topics
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⭕【Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 Index Expected to Rise to 6,500 Points by Year-End】
Goldman Sachs released a report predicting that the S&P 500 Index will rise to 6,500 points by year-end, driven primarily by corporate profit growth. Earnings per share are estimated to grow by 11% this year and 7% next year, with the price-to-earnings ratio expected to remain at around 21.5 times by year-end. Goldman Sachs noted that last year, the S&P 500 Index achieved a total return of 25%, marking the second consecutive year with returns exceeding 20%. The last time the S&P 500 Index achieved consecutive annual returns above 20% was in 1998 and 1999.
⭕【Trump: Largest Tax Cut in US History to Be Implemented】
Trump stated on Truth Social, "US Congress members are working on a strong bill. We must ensure border security, develop American energy, and renew the Trump tax cuts, which are the largest tax cuts in history. We will implement a no-tax policy on tips."
⭕【Biden Officially Blocks Nippon Steel's Acquisition of US Steel; Foreign Ministry Responds】
At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on January 6, a reporter asked about US President Biden's recent decision to officially block Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel, which has drawn criticism from various sectors in the US and Japan as being unfair. Some reports also suggested that the Chinese government and steel industry were pleased with this decision. In response, spokesperson Jiakun Guo stated, "We have noted the relevant reports. Regarding specific commercial cooperation between the US and Japan, China has no comment. China has always advocated that all countries should adhere to the principles of fair competition and WTO rules, playing a positive role in ensuring the orderly operation of global markets and the healthy development of international trade."
