SMM

Lithium Ore:

At the beginning of this week, lithium ore prices were basically flat WoW. For spodumene, overseas mines showed no significant changes in their firm pricing stance, with quotations remaining at previously high levels. Although there were occasional rumors of higher transaction prices, overall, from the demand side, purchase willingness was weak. For lepidolite, the supply from small and medium-sized miners was limited, with inconsistent quality and uncertain sustainability. Thus, despite high market quotations, transaction prices for low-grade lepidolite were generally below previous auction prices, while high-grade lepidolite prices showed little change WoW.
Lithium ore prices are expected to fluctuate in tandem with lithium carbonate prices.

Lithium Carbonate:

At the beginning of this week, the center of spot transaction prices for lithium carbonate moved upward. From the demand side, although downstream production schedules in January showed some reductions, they were still better than the same period in previous years. Additionally, some material plants still had pre-holiday stocking demand, making market transactions relatively active. From the supply side, January supply is expected to decrease, and there is a firm stance on discounts for 2025 long-term contracts and spot prices. As a result, downstream material plants are primarily transacting with traders. Considering the dual reduction trend in supply and demand for January, combined with the market's circulating inventory levels, lithium carbonate spot prices are expected to exhibit sideways movement.

Lithium Hydroxide:

At the beginning of this week, lithium hydroxide prices were basically flat WoW. On the supply side, production proceeded as expected with maintenance activities, and spot order quotations were generally without discounts and above 70,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, most ternary cathode material plants had completed stocking in December and currently showed no strong purchase willingness. Traders continued to receive inquiries from downstream demand, but progress was slow due to the firm pricing stance of most upstream suppliers, with few large-volume spot transactions observed in the market.
In terms of supply-demand balance, with supply reductions outpacing demand reductions this month, destocking is expected to continue.
Lithium hydroxide prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a range.

Refined Cobalt:

This week, refined cobalt prices declined slightly. From the supply side, mainstream refined cobalt smelters maintained high operating rates, and overall market spot inventories were sufficient. From the demand side, demand from downstream alloy and magnetic material sectors was relatively limited. In terms of market conditions, year-end stocking activities across various segments had mostly concluded, and market transaction activity during the week was subdued. Overall, the short-term supply-demand relationship is unlikely to change significantly, and with expectations of severe surplus in the future, refined cobalt spot prices are unlikely to rise in the short term.

Intermediate Products:

This week, cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable. From the supply side, port inventories were currently sufficient. From the demand side, downstream cobalt smelters had significantly reduced production, and spot demand was limited. Considering the overall market situation, the year-end market was relatively quiet, with little change in the overall supply-demand pattern, and spot prices remained stable. Next week, the overall market situation is expected to persist, with spot prices fluctuating downward.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):

This week, cobalt salt prices pulled back slightly. On the supply side, due to generally low operating rates at smelters, cobalt salt production decreased. On the demand side, the ternary cathode precursor and Co3O4 markets remained weak, with cobalt salt demand still sluggish. Overall, the market showed sporadic demand for cobalt salts, with some manufacturers selling below market prices due to cash flow pressures, leading to a decline in spot prices. Next week, cobalt salt prices are expected to continue declining, but as prices have already fallen below cost, the downside room is limited.

Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):

This week, Co3O4 market prices remained stable. From the supply side, market supply from Co3O4 smelters slightly decreased. On the demand side, demand from the LCO market was relatively mediocre, primarily driven by rigid restocking needs, with limited transaction volumes. Looking ahead to next week, as raw material cobalt salt prices continue to decline, cost support for Co3O4 will gradually weaken, and spot prices may see a slight downward adjustment. However, due to limited LCO inventories downstream and ongoing procurement demand, the downside room for Co3O4 prices is also limited.

Nickel Sulphate:

As of today, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price stood at 26,382 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate between 26,000 and 26,920 yuan/mt, and the average price remained flat WoW. On the demand side, market inquiries and transactions were relatively subdued. On the supply side, most nickel sulphate manufacturers are expected to cut production this month due to weak demand and losses, while spot market inventories for scattered orders remained extremely low, with limited market circulation. The coefficient of quotations from salt plants remained at last week's level. In the short term, the supply-demand relationship is expected to remain weak on both sides, with insufficient driving forces for nickel sulphate prices to move either upward or downward. Nickel sulphate prices are expected to remain stable in the near future.

Ternary Cathode Precursors:

At the beginning of this week, prices for 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary cathode precursors remained flat WoW.
In terms of raw materials, prices for nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate remained stable. From the demand side, due to downstream control of finished product inventories, overall demand for ternary materials weakened in December. Looking ahead to January, demand for ternary materials production is expected to remain sluggish. On the supply side, production from leading ternary cathode precursor companies increased slightly, with overall industry production up approximately 1% MoM. However, due to weak downstream demand, the Chinese New Year holiday, and production line maintenance by some major companies, production is expected to decline significantly in January.
Future Price Forecast. Cost side, nickel sulphate prices are expected to remain stable, while cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate may have room for downward adjustments. As a result, prices of various ternary cathode precursor series may experience declines to varying degrees. Among them, high-nickel products are likely to see relatively smaller price drops, while low-nickel products may face more significant price adjustments. Ternary Cathode Material: On Monday, with no changes in sulphate prices, the rebound in lithium carbonate prices that day led to varying degrees of cost increases for 5-series and 6-series ternary cathode materials. In January, leading producers of ternary cathode materials maintained high concentration levels, while production volumes of small and medium-sized enterprises further declined. Coupled with adjustments in finished cathode material inventories by some downstream battery companies at year-end, orders for ternary cathode materials decreased this month. However, as orders for ternary power battery terminals have not significantly declined, January's ternary cathode material production schedule in China is expected to drop by only 4.5% MoM, performing relatively well compared to the same period in previous years. Pre-holiday stockpiling of raw materials for cathode markets is still ongoing, with an active atmosphere observed on Monday. LFP: On Monday, LFP market prices rose slightly, with an average increase of about 180 yuan/mt. Lithium carbonate prices surged by 700 yuan/mt this week. Processing fees remained unchanged, but producers showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and processing fees are expected to rise slightly in the near term. Currently, the market mainly follows long-term agreement prices from December, keeping prices relatively stable. Leading battery manufacturers are negotiating with downstream companies regarding LFP supply for the coming year. According to market research by SMM, LFP processing fees are expected to rise slightly overall. Supply side, the LFP industry's operating rate remained high this week. Demand side, year-end production schedules for downstream battery cell manufacturers remained robust, showing significant growth compared to the same period last year. Iron Phosphate: Iron phosphate prices continued to rise, with phosphate prices increasing slightly recently. Industrial ammonium prices remained stable, while ferrous sulphate prices showed an upward trend. Iron phosphate production costs are expected to continue rising before the Chinese New Year. In January, iron phosphate production maintained high operating rates, with only a few companies planning maintenance during the holiday, which may impact overall production. Early January saw strong sentiment for price increases among iron phosphate producers, with prices rising by 300-500 yuan/mt. Transaction prices were concentrated around 10,500-11,000 yuan/mt, with some prices surging to 11,500 yuan/mt. Iron phosphate producers have begun price negotiations with downstream LFP companies. LCO: This week, LCO prices remained stable, with 4.2V, 4.4V, and 4.5V LCO priced at 134,000 yuan/mt, 138,000 yuan/mt, and 150,000 yuan/mt, respectively, unchanged from last week. The main reason is the stable prices of raw materials such as battery-grade lithium carbonate and Co3O4, keeping LCO costs stable. LCO production in December fell by 3% MoM. As year-end approached, end-use demand weakened, and battery cell manufacturers mainly purchased as needed. Orders declined slightly, leading to reduced production schedules. Looking ahead, LCO prices are expected to show a slight downward trend due to continued weak downstream demand and slower year-end stockpiling, with the short-term supply-demand pattern unlikely to change. Anode: This week, anode prices remained stable. Cost side, low-sulphur petroleum coke prices remained high this week, with slight increases at some refineries. Oil-based needle coke, previously at low prices with limited profit margins, showed some upward pricing tendencies. However, due to weak downstream demand, prices are still under negotiation and are expected to remain stable in the short term. Graphitisation, high electricity costs during the dry season and price suppression by downstream anode manufacturers have pushed graphitisation outsourcing profits close to cost levels, leading to upward pricing tendencies. However, due to weak market demand for graphitisation outsourcing, price increases are difficult to achieve, and prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short term. Demand side, downstream customers were still in a rush for installations and stockpiling before the holiday, with demand at an annual high and shipments in an ideal state. With anode prices at low levels and raw material costs remaining high, anode manufacturers face significant pressure on survival and profitability, creating strong desires for price increases. However, constrained by price suppression from downstream battery cell manufacturers, prices remain stagnant. Separator: This week, lithium battery separator prices remained stable. Supply and demand, domestic downstream terminals were actively rushing for installations at year-end, while overseas customers also advanced stockpiling due to the early Chinese New Year in 2025. Overall, downstream demand remained strong, supporting high operating rates for separator manufacturers, ensuring stable production and optimistic sales. Price-wise, after previous rounds of bidding, separator prices are currently at low levels. With stable production, bidding intentions have decreased, and most sales are at stable prices, with little overall price fluctuation. However, as separator manufacturers continue to expand capacity and there is still some surplus capacity, competition for market share will persist. Additionally, year-end downstream customers are starting new rounds of bidding or price negotiations, with continued cost-reduction demands. As a result, separator material prices will remain under pressure and may decline further. Electrolyte: This week, electrolyte prices remained stable. Supply side, with stable LiPF6 prices and ongoing negotiations, electrolyte manufacturers mainly purchased LiPF6 as needed. Demand side, demand for electrolytes from battery cell manufacturers remained stable. Cost side, prices of LiPF6, solvents, and additives remained stable. Currently, electrolyte prices are primarily influenced by LiPF6 prices. However, price suppression from battery cell manufacturers has kept electrolyte prices stable. Prices for ternary power battery electrolyte ranged from 21,100-29,550 yuan/mt, while LFP battery electrolyte prices ranged from 16,800-25,550 yuan/mt. In the short term, cost fluctuations are expected to cause electrolyte prices to fluctuate within a certain range. Sodium-Ion Battery: Recently, prices of key materials and battery cells for sodium-ion batteries have continued to decline, effectively reducing production costs and enhancing market competitiveness. This trend is expected to continue in the near future, further promoting the adoption and application of sodium-ion batteries. The successful commissioning of polyanion cathode material production lines marks an accelerated pace of capacity expansion in the industry. This will help alleviate supply-demand imbalances and meet growing market demand. Recycling: This week, the lithium battery recycling scrap market remained stable overall. Material side, spot lithium carbonate prices showed volatile declines this week due to reduced supply and demand ahead of the Chinese New Year. Meanwhile, nickel prices remained stable due to demand factors, and cobalt prices saw only slight decreases. Under the backdrop of slightly lower material prices and declining downstream market demand, LFP battery scrap prices remained stable. Despite fluctuations in various material prices, coefficients for ternary battery scrap also remained stable. Some recycling companies stockpiled at year-end, and battery manufacturers continued to support prices, with no plans to lower scrap prices before year-end. As a result, prices for unbroken scrap remained firm. In terms of transactions, with the end of the year-end ESS grid connection and power battery installation peak, recycling companies generally held cautious expectations for the Q1 market. Stockpiling intentions were low, and market transactions were primarily driven by just-in-time demand. Downstream and Terminal: On December 30, the list of candidates for the EPC contract of the Shandong Independent Shared ESS Power Station Project was announced. The project has a total construction scale of 700MW/2.8GWh, including the 300MW/1,200MWh Independent Shared ESS Power Station in Dawang Town, Guangrao, Dongying, Shandong; the 200MW/800MWh Independent Shared ESS Power Station in Shunwang Town, Zhucheng, Shandong; and the 200MW/800MWh Independent Shared ESS Power Station in Xialu Town, Donggang, Shandong. The project owner is Yankai (Guangrao) Energy Technology Co., Ltd., and the project is located in Guangrao County, Dongying City, Shandong Province. The first candidate is the consortium of China Gezhouba Group Third Engineering Co., Ltd. and China Gezhouba Group Electric Power Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 4.611 billion yuan, equivalent to 1.647 yuan/Wh. The second candidate is the consortium of Henan Dacheng Construction Engineering Co., Ltd. and Henan Yuhong Construction Group Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 4.5229 billion yuan, equivalent to 1.615 yuan/Wh. The third candidate is the consortium of Haotian Construction Group Co., Ltd. and Shandong Xinda Engineering Design Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 4.6133 billion yuan, equivalent to 1.648 yuan/Wh. 》Subscribe to view SMM New Energy product spot historical prices 》Click to view SMM New Energy Industry Chain Database News: [Fuzhou: Continue to Promote Trade-In Activities for Consumer Goods This Year] According to the Fuzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce, trade-in subsidy activities for automobiles, home appliances, home renovation kitchen and bathroom products, and electric bicycles began on January 1, 2025. The home appliance trade-in subsidy activity started on January 2, and the home renovation kitchen and bathroom subsidy activity started on January 3. Subsidy application portals for vehicle scrappage and renewal, replacement, and electric bicycle subsidies will be launched after system adjustments. All ongoing activities are transitional, and before the 2025 provincial trade-in policy for consumer goods is issued, subsidy details will follow the 2024 policy standards. [Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Commerce: Implementation of 2025 Shenzhen Home Appliance Trade-In Subsidy Policy Started on January 1] The Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Commerce announced the trade-in policy for automobiles, home appliances, and electric bicycles. Starting January 1, 2025, the first batch of subsidized home appliance categories includes refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, water heaters, household stoves, and range hoods. Consumers purchasing products meeting Level 2 or higher energy or water efficiency standards will receive a trade-in subsidy of 15% of the product's selling price. An additional 5% subsidy will be provided for products meeting Level 1 or higher standards. Each consumer can receive a subsidy for one unit per product category, with a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan per unit. [CITIC Securities: Policies Likely to Continue, Automotive Industry Recovery in Sight] CITIC Securities reviewed four major automotive consumption stimulus policies in history and found that the marginal strength of 2024 policies significantly increased, with single-vehicle discounts rising to 9% (higher than the previous 5% and 2.5%). The study also found that the marginal multiplier effect of policy leverage has stabilized at around 3.0, with increasingly front-loaded market responses. Therefore, the "closing phase" of 2024 policies is relatively safe. The trade-in policies introduced in H2 2024 effectively supported sales, and the likelihood of policy continuation is high, with the possibility of additional diversified stimulus policies. Under a neutral scenario, passenger vehicle sales in 2025 are expected to reach 29.24 million units (up 6.4% YoY), signaling the end of cut-throat competition in the industry. SMM New Energy Research Team Cong Wang 021-51666838 Rui Ma 021-51595780 Ziya Lin 86-2151666902 Ye Yuan 021-51595792 Disheng Feng 021-51666714 Ying Xu 021-51666707 Yanlin Lü 021-20707875 Yujun Liu 021-20707895 Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711