Lithium Ore:
This week, lithium ore prices fluctuated slightly WoW. For spodumene, overseas mines showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, with quotations remaining at high levels, and transaction prices occasionally reaching nearly $900/mt CIF. However, as domestic lithium chemical spot and futures prices are currently at low levels, demand for high-priced overseas lithium ore remains weak. In the domestic market, some traders have made relatively few purchases recently and also exhibit a certain sentiment to stand firm on quotes under the current lithium chemical prices. Coupled with the approach of the Chinese New Year, suppliers' willingness to negotiate prices has weakened due to logistical reasons, slowing the pace of shipments. Overall, spot circulation in the market is limited, and spodumene prices continue to fluctuate within the current range.
For lepidolite, with limited overall circulation of lepidolite concentrate in the market, supply-side quotations remain high. On the demand side, most non-integrated lepidolite smelters currently in operation maintain normal production rhythms and have ongoing demand for lepidolite concentrate, further supporting the sentiment to stand firm on quotes from the supply side. However, due to recent inconsistencies in the volume and quality of spot supply, buyers exhibit a certain desire to bargain down prices. Combined with the relatively low lithium chemical prices recently, lepidolite prices overall continue to fluctuate within the current range.
Lithium ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at current levels.
Lithium Carbonate:
At the beginning of this week, lithium carbonate spot prices rose due to multiple favorable news factors. Subsequently, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated within a range, with transaction centers largely stable. From the current market transactions, prices rebounded at the beginning of the week, but downstream material plants showed significantly weaker purchasing sentiment. Later, as prices gradually returned to normal transaction levels, transaction activity slightly improved due to some material plants' stocking demand ahead of the Chinese New Year. Upstream lithium chemical plants maintained strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and some traders' quotations also increased slightly compared to before. Considering that lithium chemical plants will gradually enter pre-holiday maintenance and downstream material plants still have some stocking demand, combined with the market's circulating lithium carbonate inventory levels, lithium carbonate spot prices are expected to fluctuate within a range.
Lithium Hydroxide:
This week, lithium hydroxide prices continued a slight upward trend. In production, with the Chinese New Year approaching, production days at some lithium chemical plants have decreased due to transportation and holiday factors, leading to a slight reduction in output MoM. In the market, supply-side lithium chemical plants maintained their previous sentiment to stand firm on quotes, with quotations remaining high. On the demand side, most ternary cathode material plants had already made some stockpiling moves earlier, resulting in limited demand this week and reduced frequency of spot order purchases. Market transactions were mostly limited to just-in-time procurement, with few large-scale transactions. Additionally, regarding new long-term contracts for the upcoming year, downstream buyers have shown increased acceptance of discounts following over a month of price hikes upstream. Some lithium chemical plants, considering inventory factors, are expected to soften their stance. Overall, long-term contract discounts are likely to increase YoY in 2024, with shorter contract durations.
Refined Cobalt:
This week, refined cobalt prices dropped slightly. On the supply side, spot availability in the market remains sufficient. On the demand side, the overall market is relatively quiet at year-end, with weak spot purchase willingness. From the market perspective, as the year-end is an off-season for industry demand, overall trading sentiment remains subdued. Next week, with logistics and transportation coming to a halt, spot market trading sentiment is expected to remain quiet, and refined cobalt prices are likely to show little fluctuation.
Intermediate Products:
This week, cobalt intermediate product prices dropped slightly. On the supply side, port arrivals remain steady, and spot supply is sufficient. On the demand side, downstream cobalt smelters have shown reduced just-in-time procurement willingness, resulting in limited overall trading volume. Considering the market situation, the current market is in a state of oversupply, putting downward pressure on spot prices, which have declined slightly.
Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):
This week, cobalt salt prices remained largely stable. On the supply side, due to generally low operating rates at smelters, cobalt salt production has decreased. On the demand side, the ternary cathode precursor and Co3O4 markets showed weak stocking willingness, leading to continued sluggish demand for cobalt salts. However, supported by raw material costs, cobalt salt producers have reduced their willingness to sell at low prices, keeping market prices temporarily stable. Next week, with no substantial changes expected in market supply and demand, spot prices may still face a slight downward risk.
Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):
This week, Co3O4 market prices remained stable. On the supply side, Co3O4 smelters' supply decreased slightly. On the demand side, demand in the LCO market remained relatively stable, primarily driven by basic inventory replenishment needs, with limited market trading volume. Next week, with low LCO inventory levels downstream, there may be some just-in-time procurement demand. As inquiry volumes increase, Co3O4 spot prices have the potential for a slight rise.
Nickel Sulphate:
As of today, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price stood at 26,411 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate between 26,030–26,950 yuan/mt, and the average price slightly up WoW. On the demand side, most precursor plants have completed their January stocking, with only a few enterprises still requiring restocking. Market trading volume remains limited, and overall transaction activity is at a low level. On the supply side, the market circulation of nickel salts has tightened, and nickel sulphate producers' finished product inventory days remain low. Some nickel salt producers with cost inventories have suspended shipments due to current losses. The tight supply situation and losses have further heightened nickel sulphate producers' sentiment to stand firm on quotes. In the short term, given the tight market supply, nickel sulphate prices are expected to continue rising.
Ternary Cathode Precursors:
This week, prices for 5-series consumer-grade, 6-series consumer-grade, and 8-series power-grade ternary cathode precursors all increased to varying degrees. In terms of raw materials, nickel sulphate prices rose slightly, cobalt sulphate prices remained stable, and manganese sulphate prices declined slightly. From the supply perspective, with the Chinese New Year approaching, demand in the spot order market is relatively weak, and precursor producers are primarily fulfilling long-term contracts. From the demand perspective, although some material enterprises expect production growth, most producers have reduced output, resulting in relatively weak overall demand. Looking ahead, from the cost side, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices are expected to rise further, while cobalt sulphate prices may decline. Therefore, prices for ternary cathode precursors across different series are likely to increase to varying extents, with high-nickel products seeing relatively larger price increases and low-nickel products experiencing smaller price gains.
Ternary Cathode Materials:
This week, from the cost side of ternary cathode materials, daily price fluctuations for sulphates were minimal. In contrast, prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide showed more significant increases due to robust pre-Chinese New Year restocking by downstream enterprises, providing some support to raw material costs for ternary cathode materials. Prices for 5-, 6-, and 8-series ternary cathode materials all rose to varying degrees this week.
From this week's supply and demand situation in the industry, domestic ternary material producers saw a slight decline in production schedules, with a relatively limited decrease, while overseas ternary material plants maintained low operating rates. Demand side, domestic battery manufacturers slightly reduced production schedules for ternary power batteries before the Chinese New Year, but the decline was relatively smaller compared to previous years. On the consumption side, purchase willingness for ternary materials at the current period remained mediocre.
LFP:
This week, LFP market prices showed signs of stabilizing and rising slightly, with an overall average increase of about 130 yuan/mt. The price increase this week was mainly due to a significant upward trend in lithium carbonate prices, which rose by about 600 yuan/mt. Processing fees remained basically stable this week, but given the recent upward trend in iron phosphate prices, coupled with the results of long-term contract negotiations between material manufacturers and downstream battery manufacturers, mid-to-high-end material processing fees are expected to rise slightly in the near term. In terms of supply, LFP material manufacturers maintained active operations this week, with no significant production cuts observed. Demand side, downstream battery cell manufacturers' production schedules remained relatively stable, showing significant YoY growth.
Iron Phosphate:
Price adjustments for iron phosphate at the beginning of January have been gradually completed, with prices remaining stable this week. Market demand for iron phosphate remained in line with previous expectations, with active transactions, and most downstream LFP customers have accepted the price increases. However, the price increase does not necessarily mean that iron phosphate enterprises can easily turn losses into profits. Due to prolonged losses and delayed payments from downstream, some iron phosphate enterprises may still face funding gaps at year-end. Enterprises need to reasonably adjust production plans to reduce operational risks. As each enterprise in the iron phosphate market adopts different strategies, price negotiations continue.
LCO:
This week, LCO prices dropped slightly, with prices for 4.2V, 4.4V, and 4.5V LCO at 134,000 yuan/mt, 138,000 yuan/mt, and 149,000 yuan/mt, respectively. The main reason was the weakening year-end consumer electronics demand, leading battery cell manufacturers to purchase as needed, resulting in a slight decline in orders and reduced production schedules. The market adopted a volume discount strategy, with some enterprises offering concessions to secure orders. Combined with weaker prices for lithium carbonate and Co3O4 raw materials, spot market prices faced significant resistance to rebound. Weak demand in the smartphone, digital, and e-cigarette markets, along with slower stocking by terminal manufacturers, further impacted LCO demand. Looking ahead, LCO prices are expected to continue a slight downward trend due to persistently weak downstream demand and the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday and the off-season at the beginning of the year, making it difficult to change the short-term supply-demand pattern.
Anode:
This week, anode prices remained stable. Cost side, downstream anode market demand remained strong, with smooth shipments from low-sulphur petroleum coke refineries and low inventory levels. Low-sulphur petroleum coke prices remained stable at high levels this week. However, due to limited demand from downstream anode manufacturers, the overall operating rate of oil-based green needle coke producers was low. In the short term, needle coke manufacturers are expected to adopt a price stabilization strategy. Graphitisation outsourcing faced high electricity costs during the dry season, making it difficult to sustain price reductions and creating expectations of price increases. However, with weak current demand, price adjustments are challenging, and prices remain stagnant. Demand side, current downstream demand for anodes is strong, with low sentiment to press prices, and anode manufacturers reported ideal shipment conditions. With extremely limited profit margins and the expected demand decline approaching the Chinese New Year, anode manufacturers showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Artificial graphite anode prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.
Separator:
This week, lithium battery separator material prices remained stable. Currently, domestic customers are rushing for installations, and overseas customers are also planning early stockpiling. Downstream demand overall remained strong, with good material sales and production conditions. Price side, due to previous price wars and continuous price suppression by customers, separator material prices were at a low range. With improved order conditions for separator enterprises and eased market competition, downstream customers paused price suppression to ensure stable supply, resulting in overall stable separator prices. However, given the existing surplus capacity and the gradual release of new capacity, separator enterprises may continue to compete for market share, potentially leading to slight price reductions in the future.
Electrolyte:
This week, electrolyte prices remained stable. Supply side, as the year-end approaches, market demand declined, and LiPF6 production was based on demand. Electrolyte manufacturers mainly purchased LiPF6 as needed, with prices stable. Demand side, battery cell manufacturers' demand for electrolytes remained relatively stable. Cost side, prices for LiPF6, solvents, and additives were temporarily stable. Currently, electrolyte prices are primarily influenced by LiPF6 prices. However, due to price suppression by battery cell manufacturers, electrolyte prices remained stable. Prices for ternary power battery electrolyte ranged from 21,100 to 29,550 yuan/mt, while LFP battery electrolyte prices ranged from 16,800 to 25,550 yuan/mt. In the short term, cost fluctuations are expected to cause electrolyte prices to fluctuate within a certain range.
Sodium-Ion Battery:
This week, the sodium-ion battery market remained relatively quiet, with sluggish transactions as the Chinese New Year approached. Market expectations for sodium-ion batteries are mainly focused on applications in two-wheelers, start-stop power supplies, and ESS. Sodium-ion batteries have advantages over lithium batteries in terms of C-rate and low-temperature performance but still require time for development and exploration. By 2025, supporting production lines for sodium-ion battery anodes, cathodes, and battery cells are expected to be gradually launched. If effective mass production is achieved, sodium-ion battery costs will further decrease, meeting the growing market demand.
Recycling:
This week, the lithium battery recycling scrap market saw a slight increase in LFP prices, while ternary coefficients remained stable. On the material side, lithium carbonate spot prices rose slightly at the beginning of the week due to positive news, followed by sideways movement. Meanwhile, nickel prices rose slightly due to demand, while cobalt prices remained basically stable. Influenced by rising material prices, high-end LFP battery scrap prices increased slightly at the beginning of the week and then stabilized. For ternary materials, despite slight increases in various material prices, ternary scrap coefficients remained stable due to recent demand factors. In terms of actual transactions, battery manufacturers continued to stand firm on quotes, with unbroken scrap prices remaining stable. Recycling enterprises, approaching the Chinese New Year, were reluctant to take significant actions. Combined with their traditionally cautious attitude toward the Q1 market, recycling enterprises' stockpiling remained primarily demand-driven, with sluggish market transactions.
Downstream and Terminal:
On January 8, Beijing Haibosi Chuang Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Haibosi Chuang") disclosed its prospectus, initiating its issuance and scheduled to subscribe on January 16 under the stock abbreviation Haibosi Chuang.
Haibosi Chuang plans to publicly issue 44.43 million shares, all as new shares, with a total post-issuance share capital of 177.73 million shares. The initial strategic placement issuance is 6.6566 million shares, accounting for approximately 14.98% of the total issuance. Before the clawback mechanism, the initial offline issuance is 26.44 million shares, accounting for 70.00% of the issuance after deducting the initial strategic placement, while the initial online issuance is 11.33 million shares, accounting for 30.00% of the issuance after deducting the initial strategic placement. The preliminary inquiry period for this issuance is scheduled for January 13 from 9:30 to 15:00, and the online roadshow is scheduled for January 15.
According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange website, Haibosi Chuang's STAR Market IPO was accepted on June 20, 2023, entered the inquiry stage on July 9, 2023, was approved by the committee on October 17, 2023, and submitted its registration application on November 29, 2023. On December 18, 2023, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Approval for the Initial Public Offering Registration of Beijing Haibosi Chuang Technology Co., Ltd.," approving Haibosi Chuang's IPO registration application.
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News:
【Fuzhou: Continue to Promote Trade-In Activities for Consumer Goods This Year】According to the Fuzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce, trade-in subsidy activities for automobiles, home appliances, home decoration kitchen and bathroom products, and electric bicycles began on January 1, 2025. It is reported that the trade-in subsidy activity for home appliances started on January 2, and the renewal subsidy activity for home decoration kitchen and bathroom products started on January 3. The application portals for vehicle scrappage and renewal, replacement renewal, and electric bicycle subsidies will be launched after system debugging is completed. Currently, all initiated activities are continuation activities. Before the 2025 provincial-level trade-in activity plan is issued, the relevant details of various subsidy activities will continue to follow the 2024 policy standards.
【Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Commerce: Implementation of 2025 Shenzhen Home Appliance Trade-In Subsidy Policy Started on January 1】The Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Commerce announced the trade-in policy for automobiles, home appliances, and electric bicycles. Starting January 1, 2025, the 2025 Shenzhen home appliance trade-in subsidy policy was implemented. The first batch of subsidized categories includes eight types of home appliances: refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, water heaters, household stoves, and range hoods. Individual consumers purchasing products meeting Level 2 or above energy or water efficiency standards will receive a trade-in subsidy of 15% of the product's selling price. An additional 5% subsidy will be provided for products meeting Level 1 or above standards. Each consumer can receive a subsidy for one unit per product category, with a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan per unit.
【CITIC Securities: Policies Likely to Continue, Automotive Industry Sees Dawn】CITIC Securities reviewed four major automotive consumption stimulus policies in history and found that the policy intensity in 2024 significantly increased, with single-vehicle discounts rising to 9% (higher than the previous 5% and 2.5%). The study also found that the policy leverage multiplier marginally decreased, stabilizing at around 3.0, with market feedback becoming increasingly front-loaded. Therefore, the "closing period" index for 2024 policies is relatively safe. The trade-in policies introduced in H2 2024 effectively supported sales, and the likelihood of policy continuation is high, with the possibility of other diversified stimulus policies. Under a neutral expectation, passenger car sales in 2025 are projected to reach 29.24 million units (YoY +6.4%), signaling the industry's emergence from cut-throat competition.
SMM New Energy Research Team
Cong Wang 021-51666838
Rui Ma 021-51595780
Ziya Lin 86-2151666902
Ye Yuan 021-51595792
Disheng Feng 021-51666714
Ying Xu 021-51666707
Yanlin Lü 021-20707875
Yujun Liu 021-20707895
Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711
