》Check SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis
SMM, January 22:
Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2503 contract opened at 20,335 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,375 yuan/mt, a low of 20,275 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,315 yuan/mt, down 0.56%. Trading volume was 108,000 lots, and open interest was 193,000 lots.
SMM Comments: Macro side, with Trump officially taking office, market sentiment was uncertain regarding the tariff hike policy, leading to fluctuations in the US dollar index, which initially fell and then rose, putting pressure on base metals. Fundamentals side, supply-side disruptions decreased, and with sufficient supply, the cost side of the aluminum industry eased significantly. The domestic aluminum immediate full average cost fell to around 19,000 yuan/mt. Specifically, alumina costs accelerated downward over the past week, and the market's purchase willingness for high-priced alumina weakened. Spot alumina prices are expected to continue pulling back, weakening cost support for aluminum. Demand side, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, aluminum processing plants began to shut down gradually during the week, leading to a noticeable weakening in demand. Social inventories may enter the inventory buildup cycle during the holiday. In the short term, attention should focus on the pace of changes in domestic and overseas macro sentiment, the impact of falling spot alumina prices on aluminum costs, as well as downstream shutdowns and the continuity of pre-holiday restocking.
Today, the most-traded alumina 2502 contract opened at 3,810 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,831 yuan/mt, a low of 3,774 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,801 yuan/mt, down 0.08%. Trading volume was 94,000 lots, and open interest was 51,000 lots.
SMM Comments: Recently, the weekly operating rate of alumina continued to increase slightly, with no significant changes on the demand side. The price center of spot alumina transaction prices continued to decline, though the rate of decline narrowed compared to earlier periods. As of now, alumina capacity has not entered a large-scale loss-making state. In the short term, alumina operating rates are expected to remain high, and the supply and demand fundamentals are expected to maintain a slight surplus. Overall, spot alumina prices are expected to continue their downward trend in the short term. Close attention should be paid to bauxite transaction prices, alumina costs, and overseas spot alumina prices.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]