》Check SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis
SMM, January 22:
Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2503 contract opened at 20,160 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,425 yuan/mt and a low of 20,160 yuan/mt, closing at 20,400 yuan/mt, up 1.07%. Trading volume was 125,000 lots, and open interest was 173,000 lots.
SMM Comments: Macro side, on Thursday, Trump called for lower interest rates, coupled with slightly higher-than-expected US weekly jobless claims, leading to a sideways movement in the US dollar index. Domestically, six departments issued a plan for long-term capital market inflows, signaling a warming macro sentiment. Fundamentals side, supply disruptions eased as supply remained sufficient, and aluminum industry costs showed significant loosening. The immediate full average cost of domestic aluminum has dropped to 18,426 yuan/mt, weakening cost-side support for aluminum. Demand side, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, aluminum processing enterprises entered a holiday mode this week, with the operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises falling by 6.3 percentage points, indicating significant seasonal demand impact. Inventory side, social inventory may enter a continuous buildup cycle during the Chinese New Year period, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory expected to reach around 500,000 mt before the holiday. In the short term, attention should focus on the pace of changes in domestic and international macro sentiment, the impact of falling spot alumina prices on aluminum costs, and the effect of holiday schedules on downstream demand.
Today, the most-traded alumina 2502 contract opened at 3,668 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,689 yuan/mt and a low of 3,606 yuan/mt, closing at 3,634 yuan/mt, down 2.65%. Trading volume was 72,000 lots, and open interest was 28,000 lots.
SMM Comments: This week, the weekly operating rate of alumina remained at a high level, with no significant reduction in alumina supply observed. As the Chinese New Year break approaches, spot alumina transactions were relatively sluggish. Overall, spot alumina transaction prices in north China showed a significantly narrowed decline, with current transaction prices nearing the theoretical marginal cost of alumina production in the region. In south China, spot alumina prices accelerated their decline, and the price difference between north and south China narrowed during the week. In the short term, no large-scale production cuts for alumina have been observed, and the spot alumina market is expected to remain relatively loose, with prices likely to continue their downward trend in the short term. Alumina profit margins are narrowing, and cost support is gradually emerging. Continuous attention is needed on bauxite transaction prices and changes in alumina capacity.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]