Lithium Ore:
This week, lithium ore prices showed a downward trend following lithium carbonate prices.
After the holiday, some smelters gradually resumed operations, maintaining a steady demand for ore purchases. However, as overseas lithium ore suppliers stood firm on quotes, lithium chemical plants began to adopt a price-suppressing mindset amid the downward trend in lithium carbonate prices, leading to a reduced acceptance of higher-priced lithium ore and overall mediocre transaction performance. Domestic lithium ore suppliers, with the resumption of operations and the arrival of pre-holiday orders, showed some willingness to quote and sell. Although quotations slightly declined in line with lithium carbonate prices, the overall sentiment to stand firm on quotes persisted, with transaction performance remaining mediocre.
For lepidolite, small and medium-sized suppliers continued to stand firm on quotes. However, due to pre-holiday auctions by large suppliers, non-integrated lithium chemical plants had certain inventories to maintain production during and after the holiday. As a result, they mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude toward the relatively small supply and high quotations from small and medium-sized suppliers, with their psychological acceptance price slightly pulling back in line with the decline in lithium carbonate prices. Additionally, the anticipated shipments from a large supplier and the expected resumption of production at a top-tier mine may alleviate the current undersupply situation of lepidolite.
Lithium ore prices are expected to continue pulling back in line with the downward trend in lithium carbonate prices.
Lithium Carbonate:
Following the Chinese New Year holiday, spot lithium carbonate prices fell by around 500 yuan/mt this week. Currently, the resumption of production at the mine-chemical integration end of a top-tier enterprise not only provides a strong supplement to domestic lithium carbonate production but also supports the customer supply levels of some material plants. Under this influence, downstream material plants may weaken their demand for spot purchases. Both upstream and downstream players are generally adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with few transactions observed. According to Chilean customs data, Chile exported 25,600 mt of lithium carbonate in January, up 27.5% MoM, of which 19,100 mt were exported to China, up 43% MoM. Considering the shipping cycle, these shipments are expected to arrive at Chinese ports between February-March. Both domestic lithium carbonate production and imported volumes have increased, significantly boosting domestic supply and further intensifying the surplus situation. Spot lithium carbonate prices are more likely to fall than rise.
Lithium Hydroxide:
This week, lithium hydroxide prices remained largely unchanged compared to pre-holiday levels. After the holiday, some enterprises resumed operations as planned. In market transactions, upstream salt plants continued to stand firm on quotes, particularly for long-term agreements with discounts. Supported by high ore prices, quotations did not change significantly despite the decline in lithium carbonate prices. Downstream ternary cathode material plants, having stocked up earlier, currently have no significant just-in-time procurement plans. Although some inquiries were made, no consensus was reached between suppliers and buyers on discounts and prices, resulting in overall mediocre transaction performance. From February's production schedule, demand is expected to decrease by nearly 10% MoM, coupled with low import and export volumes, leading to a tight balance in supply and demand for the month.
In the short term, lithium hydroxide prices are expected to fluctuate within a range.
Refined Cobalt:
Refined cobalt prices slightly declined after the holiday. On the supply side, mainstream refined cobalt smelters maintained relatively high operating rates during the Chinese New Year, ensuring sufficient market supply. On the demand side, overall market sentiment for inquiries and purchases was weak in the first week after the holiday, maintaining an oversupply situation. Looking ahead, as the short-term supply-demand pattern is unlikely to change, spot prices may continue to face some downward pressure.
Intermediate Products:
Cobalt intermediate product prices slightly declined after the holiday. On the supply side, spot availability in the market remained sufficient. On the demand side, downstream purchasing demand had yet to recover after the holiday, leaving the overall market relatively quiet. Considering the market situation, with sufficient raw material supply in the long term and high costs for downstream cobalt smelters, raw material prices are unlikely to hold and may face further downside room.
Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):
This week, cobalt salt prices remained stable. In terms of supply, some smelters reduced production due to the Chinese New Year holiday and weakened market demand, leading to a decrease in supply. On the demand side, early restocking activities were largely completed, and market inquiries and transactions were relatively quiet. With inactive market trading sentiment, prices remained temporarily stable. Next week, small-scale producers may slightly lower prices due to sales pressure, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate downward.
Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):
This week, Co3O4 prices remained stable. On the supply side, smelters maintained good operating rates. On the downstream demand side, the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude after the holiday, focusing on fulfilling existing orders, with almost no new orders and weak spot demand. Considering the market situation, as downstream players had already restocked before the holiday, the market remained stable this week, with spot prices holding steady. Next week, the Co3O4 market is expected to continue focusing on order deliveries, with prices remaining stable.
Nickel Sulphate:
As of Thursday this week, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price stood at 26,583 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate between 26,380 and 27,060 yuan/mt, showing a slight increase in the average price compared to last week.
On the demand side, due to weak orders and the Chinese New Year holiday, February's planned production for precursors was reduced, leading to weaker demand for nickel sulphate. Additionally, some precursor manufacturers had completed basic restocking but still had restocking needs. Inquiry volumes in the post-holiday market increased compared to pre-holiday levels. On the supply side, nickel salt smelters also reduced their planned production this month. This week, some nickel salt smelters began quoting and negotiating, while others had yet to resume operations. Considering the losses faced by nickel salt smelters, the industry generally maintained firm pricing, with no signs of concessions in current prices. Therefore, given the simultaneous weakening of supply and demand in the nickel sulphate market, prices are expected to remain stable in the near term.
Ternary Cathode Precursors:
This week, prices for 5-series consumer-grade, 6-series consumer-grade, and 8-series power-grade ternary cathode precursors remained stable. In terms of raw material costs, prices for nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate were slightly stable. As a result, ternary cathode precursor prices also remained steady. On the demand side, due to reduced production efficiency at ternary cathode material plants during the Chinese New Year and fewer working days overall, February's planned production decreased by approximately 10% compared to January, weakening precursor demand. On the supply side, the supply situation for precursors also weakened due to the holiday and reduced orders. Currently, long-term contract signing among precursor enterprises remains unsatisfactory, with ongoing negotiations between buyers and sellers. Looking ahead to next week, considering that nickel sulphate prices are expected to remain stable, cobalt sulphate prices may decline, and manganese sulphate prices may rise slightly, precursor prices are anticipated to show varying degrees of decline, with higher-priced products likely experiencing relatively larger decreases.
Ternary Cathode Materials:
As of February 6, during the first week after the Chinese New Year, costs and prices for 5-series and 6-series ternary cathode materials declined to varying degrees due to falling lithium carbonate prices. Costs for 8-series ternary cathode materials remained stable as lithium hydroxide and sulphate prices showed no changes.
In terms of production and supply, the production of ternary cathode materials declined overall due to the off-season period at the beginning of the year. In January, the overall operating rate of ternary cathode material enterprises was around 37%, showing a further decline compared to December. The traditional off-season led to a decrease in overall orders for ternary cathode materials, with only a few top-tier enterprises maintaining high production levels. Some ternary cathode material producers, mainly supplying overseas customers, experienced smaller order declines compared to others. Industry concentration further increased, with mid- and lower-tier enterprises seeing more significant order reductions. From the production schedule in February 2025, China's ternary cathode material production is expected to decrease by 9.6% MoM, mainly due to the Chinese New Year holiday and production line shutdowns. Except for a few producers with no holiday plans in February, most manufacturers are expected to see reduced production during the month.
LFP:
This week, the first week after the Chinese New Year holiday, the LFP market showed some changes in overall operation.
From a pricing perspective, influenced by the decline in lithium carbonate prices, LFP market prices saw a slight decrease, with an overall drop of about 120 yuan/mt. Lithium carbonate prices pulled back this week, decreasing by approximately 500 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, LFP processing fees remained unchanged after the previous adjustment. On the supply side, post-holiday operating conditions at LFP material plants were relatively stable, with top-tier producers maintaining stable production levels. However, some small- and medium-sized LFP plants experienced production cuts. On the demand side, some downstream battery cell manufacturers slightly reduced their LFP procurement volumes for February, indicating weaker downstream market demand. Additionally, minor adjustments were observed in some supply chain structures. Overall, LFP inventory is expected to increase in February, and the short-term supply-demand pattern may face some changes.
Iron Phosphate:
This week, after the Chinese New Year holiday, iron phosphate prices remained relatively stable.
Due to logistics suspension, iron phosphate enterprises actively stockpiled before the holiday, resulting in no raw material shortages. Prices of industrial ammonium and phosphoric acid remained stable. Most iron phosphate enterprises continued production during the holiday, while others opted for maintenance shutdowns and holiday breaks. Post-holiday, production has gradually resumed. Downstream demand has not seen significant adjustments and continues to follow planned supply schedules.
LCO:
This week, LCO prices slightly declined, with prices for 4.2V, 4.4V, and 4.5V specifications at 134,000 yuan/mt, 137,000 yuan/mt, and 149,000 yuan/mt, respectively.
Affected by the reduction in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices, LCO production costs also saw a slight decrease. Following the Chinese New Year holiday, most enterprises gradually resumed production, primarily fulfilling pre-holiday orders. Downstream smartphone manufacturers actively stockpiled, and with the support of national subsidy policies, LCO procurement demand increased significantly. Post-holiday market demand is expected to further recover. Overall, despite a short-term slight decline in production, the LCO market outlook remains optimistic as terminal digital market demand surges.
Anode:
This week, anode prices remained relatively firm.
Cost side, due to low inventory levels of low-sulphur petroleum coke and adjustments in tax policy, low-sulphur petroleum coke prices continued to rise this week. As low-sulphur petroleum coke prices approached those of oil-based green needle coke, demand for needle coke increased. Needle coke producers were also affected by tax policy adjustments, leading to a slight increase in oil-based green needle coke prices this week. Against the backdrop of integrated development, the outsourced graphitisation market continued to face oversupply and sluggish demand, with graphitisation prices remaining stable this week. On the demand side, downstream demand declined due to the Chinese New Year holiday. In summary, despite high production costs, anode producers showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. However, constrained by slightly weaker market demand during the holiday, prices remained stable this week. Anode material prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.
Separator:
This week, lithium battery separator material prices remained stable.
Due to prolonged price wars and price suppression by battery cell manufacturers, separator material prices had already been pushed to low levels. Additionally, downstream battery cell manufacturers' demand declined due to the Chinese New Year holiday, leading to reduced operating rates among separator enterprises. As a result, separator producers showed increasing sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Facing weak demand and supply, most downstream battery cell manufacturers ceased price suppression to ensure procurement, keeping separator prices stable this week. Looking ahead, with the gradual release of separator capacity, the separator market may continue to face oversupply. To compete for market orders, separator enterprises may adopt price reduction strategies.
Electrolyte:
This week, electrolyte prices remained stable.
On the supply side, after the Chinese New Year holiday, market demand was weak. LiPF6 production was order-based, and electrolyte producers delivered goods based on orders, with limited transactions and stable prices. On the demand side, battery cell manufacturers' demand for electrolytes gradually declined, with order-based procurement. On the cost side, prices of LiPF6, solvents, and additives remained stable. Currently, electrolyte prices are mainly influenced by LiPF6 prices. However, due to price suppression by battery cell manufacturers, electrolyte prices remained stable. Prices for ternary power battery electrolyte ranged from 21,100 to 29,550 yuan/mt, while LFP battery electrolyte prices ranged from 16,800 to 25,550 yuan/mt. In the short term, cost-side fluctuations are expected to cause electrolyte prices to oscillate within a certain range.
Sodium-Ion Battery:
After the Chinese New Year holiday, the sodium-ion battery market remained sluggish.
Due to the lack of significant downstream demand growth and tight upstream capacity expansion, post-holiday sodium-ion battery material enterprises faced difficulties in order fulfillment. However, new capacity is expected to be launched in February, and demonstration project tenders for 2025 will gradually begin. As marketization matures, new demand growth is anticipated.
Recycling:
This week, prices in the recycled scrap market remained stable.
On the supply side, due to the Chinese New Year holiday, most enterprises resumed operations only on Tuesday. Some small- and medium-sized crushing plants and traders are expected to remain on holiday until around the Lantern Festival, resulting in limited scrap circulation and relatively sluggish transactions. On the demand side, prices of nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate remained basically flat, while lithium carbonate prices slightly declined. Some LFP recycling enterprises faced more severe losses due to falling lithium chemical prices and stable black mass prices, leading to a wait-and-see attitude. Most large recycling enterprises, to avoid last year's post-holiday surge in scrap prices and high-cost black mass procurement, had stockpiled about one month's inventory before the holiday and showed low acceptance of high-priced black mass in the market. In the short term, black mass prices are expected to remain stable, influenced by nickel, cobalt, and lithium chemical prices, while black mass coefficients are likely to remain stable amid weak supply and demand.
Downstream and Terminal:
Post-holiday, DC side prices remained stable. The average price of 0.5C 5MWh battery cabins was 0.433 yuan/Wh, while 3.42MWh and 3.77MWh battery cabins averaged 0.435 yuan/Wh, consistent with pre-holiday prices.
This week, the winning bid result for the 1GW/2GWh flexible shared energy storage project in Lingshou County by Ruite New Energy was announced. Huizhou EVE Energy Co., Ltd. won the bid with 278.4 million yuan, with a tender scale of 200MW/400MWh, translating to a winning unit price of 0.696 yuan/Wh. In August 2024, the first phase of the project (300MW/600MWh) is scheduled for grid connection and operation, also supplied by EVE Energy. This bid continues EVE Energy's collaboration with the tendering party, Beijing State Grid Electric Power Technology Co., Ltd., providing energy storage systems including battery cabins, PCS integrated machines, energy management systems (EMS), and services such as design, manufacturing, on-site installation guidance, commissioning, grid-related testing, trial operation participation, acceptance assistance, and equipment maintenance during the warranty period.
According to the previously announced list of bid candidates, the second candidate was Shandong Electric Power Times Energy Technology Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 278.79 million yuan, translating to 0.697 yuan/Wh. The third candidate was Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 257.2968 million yuan, translating to 0.643 yuan/Wh.
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News:
【Qinghai Province: Accelerating the Construction of Salt Lake Co.'s 40,000 mt Basic Lithium Chemicals and Huixin's 20,000 mt Lithium Carbonate Projects】
The General Office of the People's Government of Qinghai Province issued "Several Measures for a 'Good Start' in Q1 2025." It proposed promoting stable, full-capacity production of key projects. The minimum annual production plan for potash fertilizer in 2025 was set to ensure an annual output of over 7 million mt. Support was given for the orderly release of Xigang's crude steel capacity to achieve stable production growth. Projects such as Chalco Qinghai Branch's 600kA electrolytic cell capacity replacement, Zhongtai Qingduan's annual production of 40,000 titanium alloy extrusion dies for intelligent manufacturing, and Sinopharm Plant Pharmaceutical's 500 mt Chinese medicine formula granule technical transformation were encouraged to reach full production as soon as possible. The construction of projects such as Haidong Hongshi's 100,000 mt polysilicon, Dongyao Zhixian's new display module, Nanbo Risheng's 100,000 mt polysilicon, and Laidebao's 20GW monocrystalline pulling rods was accelerated. The construction of Salt Lake Co.'s 40,000 mt basic lithium chemicals and Huixin's 20,000 mt lithium carbonate projects was also expedited.
【SK On, a New Energy Battery Company Under SK Group, Completes Triangular Merger】
According to SK China, SK On, a new energy vehicle battery manufacturing company under South Korea's SK Group, announced on February 1 that it had completed a triangular merger, officially starting as a "global battery and trading company." SK On merged with SK Trading International last November. Post-merger, SK Trading International operates under the name "SK On Trading International" within the company's internal CIC system. SK Enterm, South Korea's largest commercial tank terminal operator, will continue to operate as part of SK On Trading International after the merger.
【Hyundai to Suspend Some EV Production in South Korea Due to Weak Demand】
According to Yonhap News Agency, due to weak domestic demand in South Korea, Hyundai Motor decided to adjust production and will suspend operations of the No. 12 production line at Ulsan Plant 1, which produces Ioniq 5 and Kona EVs, from February 24 to 28.
SMM New Energy Research Team
Cong Wang 021-51666838
Rui Ma 021-51595780
Ziya Lin 86-2151666902
Ye Yuan 021-51595792
Disheng Feng 021-51666714
Ying Xu 021-51666707
Yanlin Lü 021-20707875
Yujun Liu 021-20707895
Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711
