2.18Morning Meeting Summary
Refined Nickel:
SMM February 17 News: Spot Premiums/Discounts: Mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan Nickel No. 1 were quoted in the range of 2,000-2,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,150 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan compared to the previous trading day. Russian nickel premiums/discounts were quoted in the range of -100 to 100 yuan/mt, at parity, up 50 yuan compared to the previous trading day. Futures: Nickel prices fell today, down 0.32%, reaching a low of 123,260 yuan/mt. Regarding spot premiums, Jinchuan brand nickel premiums rose slightly compared to last week, likely influenced by relatively tight supply in the nickel spot market and expectations of potential tightening in nickel ore supply from Indonesia, providing cost support. Nickel prices declined steadily after the market opened today. On one hand, US inflation data heightened market risk aversion; on the other hand, with the Two Sessions approaching in China, investors adopted a cautious stance, awaiting more policy signals. Regarding the price spread with nickel sulphate: Nickel briquette prices were 122,800-123,300 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,050 yuan/mt, down 950 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day's spot price. Nickel sulphate remains at a discount to refined nickel.
Nickel Ore:
Supply side, Indonesia has approved 207 RKAB quotas, with APNI data indicating that the approved RKAB quota for 2025 is 298 million wmt. In January, most mines passed SIMBARA system reviews, and shipments proceeded normally. Demand side, temporary quotas issued in Q4 2024 and reduced premiums left downstream smelters with about one month of raw material inventory. From a supply-demand perspective, domestic trade nickel ore supply in Indonesia is relatively ample, with increased market circulation. Compared to the same period early last year, the supply looseness is more pronounced. However, as downstream smelters deplete their inventories, SMM expects concentrated stockpiling after the Chinese New Year. Market transactions: Upstream and downstream negotiations were active this month, with market sentiment significantly improving compared to the previous week. In January, mainstream transaction premiums for Indonesian medium- to high-grade nickel ore were concentrated at $15-17, rising to $17-18 in early February, with some transactions exceeding $20 premiums. SMM expects Indonesian nickel ore prices to fluctuate upward in the future.
Nickel Sulphate:
February 17, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,598 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 26,400-27,080 yuan/mt, and the average price remained unchanged from the previous day. Cost side, LME nickel prices fluctuated rangebound recently. Demand side, some precursor plants still have February inventory stockpiles, while others plan to start purchasing nickel salts for March this week. Supply side, some nickel salt smelters have not resumed operations, and current smelter quotations are mostly unchanged from last week, with spot order transactions sluggish. Comprehensive analysis suggests that sentiment to stand firm on quotes due to cost losses and existing procurement demand may lead to a slight price increase in the near term.
Nickel Pig Iron:
February 17 News: SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 965.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 1 yuan/mtu from the previous working day. Supply side, domestically, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to rise, pushing up costs for domestic smelters, which face expanding losses and are expected to operate at low production schedules. In Indonesia, a major production area adjusted its production pace to reduce operating loads, and high-grade nickel ore resources are currently tight, with declining grades in major production areas, leading to expectations of reduced metal content. Demand side, stainless steel spot prices remained stable, with sluggish market transactions. Stainless steel mills, having stocked up inventories earlier and benefited from improved stainless steel scrap economics, showed weaker demand for high-grade NPI. In the short term, the high-grade NPI market sentiment is expected to pull back, but prices are likely to remain relatively stable with a strong trend due to cost support and tight circulating resources.
Stainless Steel:
February 17, stainless steel electronic futures contract SS2505 continued to fluctuate rangebound, with spot prices remaining stable. A steel mill in South China plans equipment maintenance and upgrades from March to June, expected to impact 200-series production by 300,000 mt, potentially supporting 200-series prices. 304 cold-rolled in Wuxi was quoted at 12,950-13,350 yuan/mt, 304 HRC in Wuxi at 12,450-12,600 yuan/mt, 316L cold-rolled in Wuxi at 23,800-24,200 yuan/mt, 201J1 cold-rolled in Wuxi at 7,700-7,800 yuan/mt, and 430 cold-rolled in Wuxi at 7,300-7,450 yuan/mt. SHFE 10:30 SS2505 contract price was 13,025 yuan/mt, with Wuxi stainless steel spot premiums at 95-445 yuan/mt (spot trimmed = untrimmed + 170 yuan/mt).
