SMM

The Market Awaits Specific News on the Resumption of Production in Wa State, Myanmar; SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Between 252,000-255,000 Yuan/mt in the Short Term [SMM Tin Morning Brief] SHFE tin market prices exhibited a high-level fluctuation followed by a weakening trend during February 21-28, 2025. Influenced by heightened expectations of production resumption in Wa State, a rebound in the US dollar index, and uncertainties in macro policies, SHFE tin prices fell back from highs, with the main trading range referenced at 252,000-268,000 yuan/mt. Supply side, news of production resumption in Wa State, Myanmar, intensified market concerns over increased supply. Meanwhile, the continuous decline in LME tin inventory contrasted with the inventory buildup in domestic social stocks, further impacting market sentiment. Technically, the most-traded SHFE tin contract broke below the key support level of 260,000 yuan/mt, fluctuating in the short term within the range of 252,000-255,000 yuan/mt. The MACD indicator showed strengthening bearish momentum. In the spot tin ingot market, trading activity was relatively subdued this week, with most downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach, anticipating further declines in tin prices before making purchases to replenish stocks. Although some enterprises made purchases after a significant pullback in tin prices, overall trading volume remained limited, and market activity was low. Most traders settled transactions using post-pricing methods, while the slower-than-expected recovery in downstream orders suppressed purchase willingness. As expectations for production resumption in Wa State strengthen, market sentiment turned bearish. Investors are advised to closely monitor subsequent policy developments and changes in supply and demand.