》View SMM Aluminum Product Prices, Data, and Market Analysis
SMM, March 3:
Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2504 contract opened at 20,595 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,725 yuan/mt and a low of 20,575 yuan/mt, closing at 20,670 yuan/mt, up 0.46%. Trading volume was 80,000 lots, and open interest was 196,000 lots.
SMM Comments: From a macro perspective, recent statements from the US Treasury indicate a cautious stance on the Ukraine issue. Treasury Secretary Yellen explicitly stated that the US is not currently negotiating a mineral agreement with Ukraine. Notably, there are new developments in US political circles regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with some officials suggesting resolving the conflict through a European-led security mechanism and hinting that Ukraine may require new political leadership. Against this backdrop, the White House meeting between Trump and Zelensky ended prematurely due to escalating disagreements, forcing the cancellation of the planned mineral cooperation agreement signing. On the economic data front, US personal consumption in January showed signs of weakness, declining by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the largest drop in 34 months and ending a 10-month growth streak. Inflation indicators showed mixed trends: the core PCE price index rose to 0.3% month-on-month (the highest since October 2024), while the year-on-year rate fell to 2.6% (the lowest since June 2024), overall aligning with market expectations. Domestically, during the latest Politburo meeting to review the draft of the "Government Work Report," emphasis was placed on implementing a more robust combination of proactive macro policies. This includes consolidating the economic foundation by expanding domestic demand and promoting the integration and innovation of the technology and industrial sectors, while also focusing on stabilizing the real estate and capital markets and systematically mitigating risks in key areas and external shocks. Fundamentals side, the industry is showing positive signals: cost support platforms are gradually solidifying, coupled with the approach of the "golden March and silver April" consumption peak season, and downstream operating rates are steadily recovering. Notably, with the traditional consumption peak season approaching, the turning point in the industry chain inventory cycle is near, and supply-side pressure is expected to be released in an orderly manner under policy guidance. The market's focus has shifted to the sustained realization of end-use demand in March. SMM believes that the current SHFE aluminum market exhibits a resonance between strong reality and strong expectations. From a macro perspective, attention should be paid to additional fluctuations caused by geopolitical factors (such as changes in tariff policies), but the continued efforts of domestic growth-stabilizing policies may generate demand exceeding expectations. Considering the characteristics of the industry cycle, aluminum prices are expected to remain at high levels with an upward fluctuation trend, and the logic of being more likely to rise than fall is unlikely to change in the short term.
Today, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at 3,365 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,395 yuan/mt and a low of 3,338 yuan/mt, closing at 3,344 yuan/mt, down 0.56%. Trading volume was 90,000 lots, and open interest was 174,000 lots.
SMM Comments: Recently, domestic spot alumina prices have stopped declining, mainly due to increased alumina export demand and transfer to delivery warehouse demand, which have supported alumina prices, leading to a slight rebound in spot alumina prices in some regions in the short term. However, overseas alumina prices have fallen, effectively closing the export window. Alumina transfer to delivery warehouse cannot provide sustained demand, and the market expects some new alumina capacity to gradually come online. From a medium and long-term perspective, spot alumina prices remain under pressure. In the short term, spot alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuating adjustments. Continuous attention should be paid to the profitability of alumina exports and changes in bauxite prices.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
