Daily Review of SHFE Tin Futures Most-Traded Contract on March 4, 2025
On March 4, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2504) fluctuated rangebound before closing slightly higher. By the close, the most-traded contract settled at 256,800 yuan/mt, up 0.49% from the previous trading day's settlement price, with a trading volume of 15.626 billion yuan. The intraday high reached 257,400 yuan/mt, while the low touched 256,180 yuan/mt, with a fluctuation range of 1,220 yuan/mt.
- Opening Price: 256,450 yuan/mt (up 0.21% from the previous day's closing price of 255,910 yuan)
- Closing Price: 256,800 yuan/mt (up 1,250 yuan or 0.49% from the previous day);
- Trading Volume: decreased by approximately 460 million yuan compared to the previous day, with market trading turning cautious.
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Macro Environment:
- The US tariff hike policy on China has raised concerns over trade frictions, heightening market risk aversion sentiment. However, policy expectations ahead of the Two Sessions still provided some support for metal prices.
- The resumption progress of Wa State tin mines and changes on the supply side have become the market's focus, with short-term bearish factors on supply partially digested.
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Supply and Demand Fundamentals:
- The spot market showed weak consumption, with downstream purchase willingness remaining low, limiting the rebound in tin prices.
- Technically, the range of 256,000-260,000 yuan/mt serves as a key resistance/support level in the near term, and caution is advised against the risk of a pullback from high levels.
In the short term, SHFE tin may continue its rangebound pattern. It is recommended to monitor: policy signals from the Two Sessions regarding industrial metal demand; domestic and overseas tin inventory changes and the resumption progress of Wa State tin mines; US Fed policy trends and the evolution of the global trade environment.
