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Macro
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01
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【Government Work Report: The Long-Term Positive Trend of China's Economy Will Not Change】
The Government Work Report stated that while we must face difficulties and challenges, we should also strengthen our confidence in development. China has significant institutional advantages, a super-large-scale market, a complete industrial system, abundant human and talent resources, and other favorable conditions. It also has effective governance mechanisms characterized by long-term planning, scientific regulation, and coordinated efforts. With broad incremental space for demand upgrades, structural optimization, and momentum transformation, the long-term positive trend of China's economy has not changed and will not change. The economic ship of China will surely ride the waves and move steadily and far!
02
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【Government Work Report: Local Government Special Bonds Planned at 4.4 Trillion Yuan, Up 500 Billion Yuan from Last Year】
The Government Work Report proposed implementing a more proactive fiscal policy. It plans to coordinate various fiscal funds, including revenue and bonds, to ensure sustained and stronger fiscal policy efforts. This year, the deficit ratio is expected to be set at around 4%, up 1 percentage point from last year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year. The general public budget expenditure is planned at 29.7 trillion yuan, up 1.2 trillion yuan from last year. The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year. Special government bonds of 500 billion yuan are planned to support capital replenishment for large state-owned commercial banks. Local government special bonds are planned at 4.4 trillion yuan, up 500 billion yuan from last year, focusing on investment in construction, purchasing existing commercial housing, and addressing local government arrears to enterprises. The total new government debt this year is expected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from last year, significantly intensifying fiscal expenditure. Efforts will be made to accelerate the allocation and disbursement of funds to form actual expenditures as soon as possible. The expenditure structure will continue to be optimized, with greater emphasis on improving people's livelihoods, promoting consumption, and enhancing development potential, thereby improving the efficiency of fund utilization. The central government will increase general transfer payments to local governments, with a focus on supporting underdeveloped and struggling regions. Responsibilities for tiered guarantees will be strictly implemented to ensure the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level. The government will adhere to a frugal approach, promote scientific fiscal management, enforce strict financial discipline, prohibit extravagance and waste, and free up more funds for development needs and public expectations.
03
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【Government Work Report: Actively Expand Effective Investment, Central Budget Investment Planned at 735 Billion Yuan This Year】
The third session of the 14th National People's Congress opened at 9 a.m. on March 5 in Beijing, with Premier Qiang Li delivering the Government Work Report. The report proposed actively expanding effective investment. It emphasized aligning with national development strategies and people's livelihood needs, leveraging various government investment tools, strengthening fiscal and financial coordination, enhancing project reserves and resource guarantees, and accelerating the implementation of key projects to ensure the successful conclusion of major projects under the 14th Five-Year Plan. Efforts will be made to select and manage projects effectively, ensure funding for ongoing projects, and resolutely prevent inefficient and ineffective investments. This year's central budget investment is planned at 735 billion yuan. Ultra-long-term special government bonds will be utilized, and supporting financing such as ultra-long-term loans will be strengthened. Top-down organizational coordination will be enhanced to support the "two major" constructions more effectively. The management mechanism for local government special bonds will be optimized, with measures such as implementing negative list management for investment fields and delegating project approval authority. Investment approval processes will be simplified, and a cross-departmental and cross-regional coordination mechanism for major projects will be established and improved. Investment in the service sector will be increased. Private investment will be supported and encouraged, with new mechanisms for public-private partnerships implemented in a standardized manner. More private capital will be guided to participate in the construction of major infrastructure and social livelihood projects, providing greater development space for private capital.
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Industry and Downstream
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01
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【Director of the State Council Research Office, Dan Yang Shen: "Boost Consumption Special Action" to Be Implemented, Supporting Policies to Be Released Soon】
At a briefing held by the State Council Information Office today on key issues in promoting consumption, Dan Yang Shen, head of the drafting team for the Government Work Report and Director of the State Council Research Office, mentioned three main issues: first, addressing insufficient consumption capacity; second, addressing insufficient high-quality supply; and third, further improving the consumption environment. Therefore, this year, based on strengthening and expanding trade-in policies for consumer goods, efforts to boost or promote consumption will focus on "three key areas" and implement "one special action." Shen explained that the "three key areas" involve promoting income growth and reducing burdens to enhance consumption capacity, increasing high-quality supply to create effective demand, and improving the consumption environment to enhance willingness to consume. Additionally, a special action called the "Boost Consumption Special Action" will be implemented. The Government Work Report has already clarified this, and relevant departments are currently formulating action plans and supporting policies, which will be released and implemented soon.
02
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【CPCA: Preliminary Statistics Show February New Energy Vehicle Retail Sales at 720,000 Units, Up 85% YoY】
According to preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), from February 1 to 28, nationwide passenger car retail sales reached 1.397 million units, up 26% YoY but down 22% MoM. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales reached 3.191 million units, up 1% YoY. During the same period, nationwide passenger car wholesale sales reached 1.781 million units, up 35% YoY but down 15% MoM. Year-to-date cumulative wholesale sales reached 3.882 million units, up 13% YoY. Preliminary statistics for February 1-28 show new energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales at 720,000 units, up 85% YoY but down 3% MoM. Year-to-date cumulative NEV retail sales reached 1.465 million units, up 38% YoY. NEV wholesale sales for the same period reached 842,000 units, up 82% YoY but down 5% MoM. Year-to-date cumulative NEV wholesale sales reached 1.732 million units, up 49% YoY.
03
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【SMM HRC Inventory】Mainstream Cities See HRC Inventory Reduction
This week, Lecong's HRC inventory stood at 107.33 mt, down 4,100 mt WoW, a decline of 0.38%. Compared to the lunar calendar, it increased by 131,400 mt, up 13.95%.
This week, Shanghai's HRC inventory was 350,700 mt, down 12,200 mt WoW, a decline of 3.36%. The YoY decline based on the Gregorian calendar was 24.76%, while the lunar calendar YoY decline was 10.60%.
This week, Tangshan's HRC inventory was 739,300 mt, down 14,000 mt WoW, a decline of 1.86%. YoY, it decreased by 376,600 mt, down 33.75%.
04
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【State Council Research Office: Stabilizing the Real Estate and Stock Markets Included in the General Requirements of the Government Work Report for the First Time】
Chen Changsheng, Deputy Director of the State Council Research Office and a member of the drafting team for the Government Work Report, stated on March 5 that those who have been following or carefully reading the report will notice that this year's report fully reflects the Central Committee's innovative macro-control thinking since the Politburo meeting on September 26. For example, the report explicitly proposes strengthening the livelihood-oriented approach of macro policies. Upon closer examination, there are also some new expressions. For instance, it breaks the conventional notion that "consumption is a slow variable" by placing greater emphasis on boosting consumption and highlighting the interaction between promoting consumption and expanding investment. Additionally, the report emphasizes the importance of asset prices in macro-control, including stabilizing the real estate and stock markets in the general requirements, which is the first time this has been done. Furthermore, it stresses investing more policy resources in people and serving livelihoods, aiming to create a virtuous cycle between economic development and livelihood improvement, thereby better promoting high-quality development through stabilizing growth and employment.
05
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【Government Work Report: Adjust Restrictive Measures by City to Fully Unlock Rigid and Improved Housing Demand Potential】
The third session of the 14th National People's Congress opened at 9 a.m. on March 5 in Beijing, with Premier Qiang Li delivering the Government Work Report. The report proposed adjusting restrictive measures by city to fully unlock the potential of rigid and improved housing demand. Efforts will be made to strengthen the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, optimize urban spatial structures and land use methods, and reasonably control the supply of new real estate land. Existing land and commercial office housing will be revitalized, and the acquisition of existing commercial housing will be promoted, granting city governments greater autonomy in terms of acquisition entities, prices, and uses. The scope of re-lending for affordable housing will be expanded. The role of the real estate financing coordination mechanism will be leveraged to continue ensuring the delivery of housing and effectively prevent the risk of developer debt defaults. Relevant foundational systems will be built in an orderly manner, and a new model for real estate development will be accelerated. Standards and norms will be improved to meet the people's demand for high-quality living, promoting the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart "good houses."
06
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【SMM Rebar Inventory】Rebar Inventory Continues to Accumulate
As of March 4, 2025, Beijing's construction material inventory stood at 850,200 mt, up 10,400 mt from February 25, an increase of 1.24%. Inventory accumulation continued, but the rate of accumulation slowed.
This week, Hangzhou's inventory reached 1.199 million mt, up 31,000 mt WoW, an increase of 2.65%.
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Other Hot Topics
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⭕【Qiang Li Introduced in the Government Work Report: Significant Efforts Made Over the Past Year to Promote Innovation-Driven Development and Optimize Industrial Structure】Premier Qiang Li introduced in the Government Work Report on March 5 that over the past year, significant efforts were made to promote innovation-driven development and optimize the industrial structure. Efforts included advancing the construction of a strong science and technology nation, fully launching major national science and technology projects, accelerating the improvement of major scientific and technological infrastructure systems, and strengthening the cultivation of top-notch innovative talent. The stable operation of the industrial economy was maintained, and the technological transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry were promoted, with manufacturing investment growing by 9.2%. A new batch of national-level advanced manufacturing clusters was cultivated, and emerging industries such as commercial aerospace, Beidou applications, and new-type ESS experienced rapid development. Mandatory national standards for environmental protection and safety were formulated and revised. The construction of Digital China was accelerated, with the added value of the core industries of the digital economy accounting for approximately 10% of GDP.
⭕【Zhuhai Plans to Acquire Existing Commercial Housing for Allocation-Based Affordable Housing】According to Guangdong's official release, Zhuhai recently issued a notice soliciting opinions on the "Zhuhai City Allocation-Based Affordable Housing Management Measures (Draft for Comments)," which explicitly proposed converting "completed but unsold commercial housing" into affordable housing.
⭕ 【Director of the Financial Regulatory Administration: Real Estate Financing Coordination Mechanism Has Approved Loans Exceeding 6 Trillion Yuan】Li Yunze, Director of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, stated during the first "Ministerial Passage" of the third session of the 14th National People's Congress that the real estate financing coordination mechanism has approved loans exceeding 6 trillion yuan, involving over 15 million housing units that have been delivered or are under construction. This year, the focus will be on two areas: first, supporting the stabilization of the real estate market by continuously expanding and enhancing the financing coordination mechanism, extending the whitelist, enabling more eligible projects to obtain loans, and resolutely ensuring the delivery of housing.Second, to facilitate transformation, efforts will be made to promptly study and formulate supporting financing systems to support the establishment of new models for real estate development and promote the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market. According to his introduction, regarding small and micro enterprises, the Financial Regulatory Administration last year guided districts and counties to set up special task forces to carry out extensive visits to thousands of enterprises and millions of households, aiming to address financing blockages and bottlenecks. Since October last year, the task forces have cumulatively visited over 50 million households, with total credit granted exceeding 10 trillion yuan, initially achieving the goals of direct access to grassroots, speed and convenience, and appropriate interest rates.
⭕ 【Government Work Report: Resolutely Implement the Strategy of Expanding Domestic Demand and Strengthen the Domestic Economic Cycle】 The third session of the 14th National People's Congress opened at 9 a.m. on March 5 in Beijing, where Premier Qiang Li delivered the government work report. The report proposed resolutely implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand, strengthening the domestic economic cycle, and expanding international cooperation space through greater openness to achieve higher-level mutual promotion and positive interaction between domestic and international cycles. It emphasized continuously deepening supply-side structural reforms, focusing on addressing structural imbalances in consumption supply, and placing greater emphasis on guiding and creating demand through high-quality supply. It also stressed the importance of further comprehensively deepening reforms to mobilize enthusiasm from all sectors and stimulate the innovative and creative vitality of the entire society.
