As China's "new three" export items, EVs, lithium batteries, and PV products are expected to strongly support the internationalization of the yuan. During this year's Two Sessions, Liu Hanyuan, a deputy to the National People's Congress, vice chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and chairman of the board of Tongwei Group, suggested that the government should support Chinese enterprises and capital in accelerating their efforts to go global by investing in and constructing new energy projects in underdeveloped countries and along the Belt and Road regions.
By the end of 2024, China's global market share in EVs, lithium batteries, and PV products is expected to reach 85%, 79.8%, and 70.4%, respectively, demonstrating a significant leading advantage. In the PV industry, China's capacity for high-purity polysilicon and silicon wafers accounts for over 95% of the global total, batteries exceed 90%, and modules surpass 85%.
Liu Hanyuan believes that China's PV industry holds a leading advantage. On the application side, China's new PV installations have ranked first globally for 11 consecutive years, and cumulative installations have led the world for 9 consecutive years. PV has become China's second-largest power supply in terms of installations and is expected to become the largest by next year or the year after, gradually evolving into a primary power supply.
Cost side, over the past decade, PV power generation costs have dropped by more than 90%, with global PV power generation costs falling to $0.01 to $0.02 per kWh, making it the most economical power generation method. From an energy input-output perspective, the electricity consumed during the entire manufacturing process of PV systems can be fully recovered within six months after the power station is completed. Over its entire life cycle, the electricity generated is 50 to 100 times the energy invested, making it a typical "small energy" to "large energy" industry.
According to institutional estimates, achieving the 2050 carbon neutrality target on schedule will require a total global investment of $215 trillion. With the "new three" industry chains going global, it is expected to drive 50 trillion to 100 trillion yuan overseas in the next two to three decades, strongly supporting the yuan in becoming a global currency on par with the US dollar.
In this regard, Liu Hanyuan suggested increasing efforts to support the "new three" industry chains in going global to advance the internationalization of the yuan. He proposed that the government actively guide and strengthen policy-driven measures to promote the global expansion of China's "new three" products, production lines, technologies, talent, services, and EPC, enabling the entire industry chain to go global collectively, thereby strongly supporting and accelerating the yuan's internationalization process.
His specific measures include having relevant government departments take the lead in establishing a cross-border trade information-sharing platform for the "new three," providing timely interpretations and dissemination to enterprises regarding technical trade barriers, regulatory measures, and carbon footprint certifications to enhance their early warning and response capabilities. He also suggested simplifying customs clearance processes, improving efficiency, and reducing export costs for enterprises; guiding effective supply-demand alignment across the industry chain to form close supporting relationships; focusing on enhancing the driving force of "chain leader" enterprises; promoting complementary advantages between upstream and downstream players; and significantly improving the resilience and overall competitiveness of the industry chain. Additionally, he proposed setting up special funds to support enterprises in tackling key technologies and equipment.
Meanwhile, Liu Hanyuan also suggested further accelerating the expansion of domestic PV installation applications to meet the development pace required for achieving the "3060" targets. He believes that in the face of the urgent demand for energy transition and the risks posed by international trade barriers, policy support measures should be strengthened to further enhance and accelerate domestic PV power generation installations, expand installation scale, and simultaneously consider the development of other energy sources to strongly support the timely realization of China's carbon neutrality goals.
