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Short-term Tight Balance and Medium and Long-term Easing Expectations Intertwined SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Upward [SMM Tin Futures Brief]
Mar 06, 2025, at 9:53 am
SMM Tin Futures Brief: Short-term Tight Balance and Medium and Long-term Easing Expectations Intertwined SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Upward
The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2504) fluctuated upward today, with significant intraday volatility. It opened higher at 257,900 yuan/mt in the morning session, boosted by macro sentiment to a high of 259,000 yuan/mt. Gains narrowed slightly in the afternoon, closing at 257,980 yuan/mt, up 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a turnover of 14.647 billion yuan. During the night session, it maintained high-level fluctuations, with the most-traded contract closing at 257,330 yuan/mt, up 0.24%. The US February ADP employment data added 77,000 jobs, significantly lower than the expected 140,000, causing the US dollar index to pull back to the 104 level, boosting non-ferrous metals. Additionally, LME tin, influenced by overseas funds' net long positions reaching a five-year high, closed at $32,000/mt, with the SHFE/LME price ratio remaining at a high level...
March 6, 2025 SHFE Tin Futures Most-Traded Contract Daily Review
The most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2504) fluctuated upward today with significant intraday volatility. It opened higher at 257,900 yuan/mt in the morning, boosted by favorable macro sentiment to a high of 259,000 yuan/mt. Gains narrowed slightly in the afternoon, closing at 257,980 yuan/mt, up 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a turnover of 14.647 billion yuan. During the night session, it maintained high-level fluctuations, closing at 257,330 yuan/mt, up 0.24%.
Macro Drivers: Synergy of Domestic and Overseas Policy Benefits
International Level: The US February ADP employment data added 77,000 jobs, significantly lower than the expected 140,000, causing the US dollar index to pull back to 104, boosting non-ferrous metals. Additionally, LME tin, influenced by overseas funds' net long positions reaching a five-year high, closed at $32,000/mt, with the SHFE/LME price ratio remaining high.
Domestic Policies: During the Two Sessions, the government work report proposed issuing 300 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support trade-in policies for consumer goods, along with a fiscal deficit target of 4%, warming expectations for stable growth, and strengthening Chinese assets.
Short-Term Tight Balance and Medium-Long Term Easing Expectations Intertwined: Expectations of resumed production at Myanmar's Wa State tin mines continue to ferment, but actual resumption requires a three-month preparation period, leaving the short-term supply tight. The escalation of armed conflicts in DRC's M23 region threatens tin ore transportation, exacerbating supply disruptions. Indonesia's March exports may further increase, but supply-demand imbalance has not yet intensified.
Technical Formations: On the daily chart, the rebound trend continues, but MACD momentum has slightly slowed, with strong resistance near 260,000 yuan/mt. The hourly chart shows a bullish short-term moving average arrangement, with support at 255,000 yuan/mt. Open interest in the most-traded contract decreased by 1,553 lots to 30,520 lots, as some longs took profits, but trading remained active, increasing market divergence.
Outlook: Overall, SHFE tin is supported by favorable macro conditions and low inventory in the short term, but caution is needed regarding the progress of Wa State's production resumption and the sustainability of downstream consumption, which could bring pullback risks. Investors are advised to operate within a range in the short term, focusing on the 255,000-262,000 yuan/mt fluctuation range, and wait for clearer supply-demand imbalances in the medium term.
