March 7, 2025, Midday Commentary on SHFE Tin Futures Most-Traded Contract
In the morning session, the SHFE tin futures most-traded contract (SN2504) maintained a strong trend, opening at 262,800 yuan/mt. Driven by macro sentiment and the overseas market, prices remained in a high-level consolidation, closing at midday at 262,670 yuan/mt, up 2.02%. The trading volume exceeded 23 billion yuan, and open interest increased slightly to 32,800 lots
. The US Dollar Weakened: The weak US February ADP employment data (77,000 new jobs) continued to weigh, coupled with Germany's announcement of a large-scale infrastructure plan, pushing the US dollar index down to around 103.9 and driving the overall rise in the non-ferrous metals sector. Domestic Policy Expectations
: During the Two Sessions, details of the "trade-in" policy were gradually clarified, boosting market expectations for a recovery in tin demand on the consumption side. Combined with the issuance plan for ultra-long-term special government bonds, market sentiment leaned optimistic. Supply Disruptions Persist
: The resumption of tin mining in Wa State, Myanmar, remains in the preparation phase (requiring three months), while M23 armed conflicts in the DRC have hindered tin ore transportation, leaving the short-term tight supply situation unchanged. However, the operating rate of domestic smelters rebounded, limiting price increases. On the daily chart, the MACD red bars expanded, and the moving average system showed a bullish alignment, but strong resistance was observed at the 260,000 yuan mark. The hourly chart indicated that the RSI approached the overbought territory, suggesting the need to guard against short-term technical pullback risks, with support at 257,000 yuan/mt. In summary, the morning strength in SHFE tin was mainly driven by macro bullish factors and low inventory, with resistance near 260,000 yuan. In the medium term, the market awaits clarity on the supply-demand imbalance, with a reference range of 258,000-265,000 yuan/mt.
