SMM Morning Comment on Alumina for March 7
Futures market: During the night session, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at 3,290 yuan/mt, reached a high of 3,296 yuan/mt and a low of 3,270 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 3,287 yuan/mt, down 0.09%. Open interest increased by 62,310 lots to 192,000 lots. Regarding spot alumina prices, on March 5, SMM alumina was quoted at 3,381 yuan/mt, flat compared to the previous trading day.
Ore market: As of March 6, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $95.15/mt, up $0.01/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $93/mt, flat compared to the previous trading day, while the SMM Australia bauxite CIF average price was $91/mt, also unchanged from the previous trading day.
Industry dynamics: 1. According to SMM data, as of this Thursday, the national weekly operating rate of alumina remained flat WoW at 84.84%. Specifically, the weekly operating rate in Shandong remained flat WoW at 92.66%; in Shanxi, it was flat WoW at 79.00%; in Henan, it was flat WoW at 67.62%; and in Guangxi, it was flat WoW at 88.26%.
Spot-futures price spread daily report: According to SMM data, on March 6, the SMM alumina index showed a premium of 88 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30.
Warehouse warrant daily report: On March 6, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina increased by 1,203 mt compared to the previous trading day, reaching 153,100 mt. In Shandong, the total registered warehouse warrants remained flat at 4,513 mt. In Henan, the total registered warehouse warrants decreased by 3,907 mt to 16,500 mt. In Guangxi, the total registered warehouse warrants remained flat at 20,117 mt. In Gansu, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 1,200 mt to 7,814 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 3,910 mt to 10,420 mt.
Overseas market: As of March 6, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $472/mt, with ocean freight rates at $20.05/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.25. This price translates to an estimated selling price of approximately 4,114 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 733 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remains closed.
Summary: Recently, the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers in the alumina market has continued, with sluggish spot transactions and stable spot prices. Overseas alumina transaction prices have further declined, and the domestic alumina export window remains closed, making it difficult for exports to provide sustained demand. Fundamentals side, no large-scale production cuts have been reported in operating alumina capacity, and the alumina market remains in a slight surplus. In the short term, spot alumina prices are expected to fluctuate downward.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
