SMM

Lithium Ore:

At the beginning of this week, spodumene prices were basically flat WoW. Recently, overseas Australian ore with a grade of 5.5% saw transaction prices ranging from 850-880, showing a certain downward trend compared to earlier periods but still at a high level, with mediocre sentiment from buyers. Domestically, lithium ore circulation was limited, with most transactions for 5% grade concentrated at 1,080-1,100 yuan/mtu. Given the sideways movement in lithium carbonate prices, the fluctuation in spodumene concentrate prices was relatively small. Regarding lepidolite, due to the limited supply scale of small and medium-sized suppliers in the current market and the uneven quality, quotations for 2.5% grade were at 2,200 yuan/mt and above, with smelters showing mediocre acceptance. Lithium ore prices are expected to continue lagging behind lithium carbonate prices in their downward trend.

Lithium Carbonate:

At the beginning of this week, spot lithium carbonate prices remained stable. Early in the week, upstream and downstream quotations showed no significant changes WoW, and market transactions were scarce. Considering the still ample supply in the spot lithium carbonate market, the supply surplus in lithium carbonate remains difficult to reverse. Spot lithium carbonate prices are expected to have further downside room.

Lithium Hydroxide:

This week, lithium hydroxide prices edged down slightly WoW. Demand side, ternary cathode material plants met current production needs through long-term contracts and customer-supplied volumes, with limited spot order demand and weak purchase willingness. Supply side, high inventory levels led to a slight loosening of sentiment to stand firm on quotes, with stronger willingness to sell and a downward trend in discounts during transactions. Lithium hydroxide prices are expected to remain in a mild downward trend in the short term.

Refined Cobalt:

This week, refined cobalt prices rose significantly. Supply side, refined cobalt producers maintained high operating rates, and some producers suspended quotations due to raw material constraints. Demand side, trading volume did not expand significantly, but downstream inquiries were active. Market-wise, raw material price increases driven by geopolitical factors continued to support refined cobalt prices. Upstream producers showed a clear sentiment to hold back cargoes, leading to sustained increases in spot quotations. This week, refined cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, constrained by raw material factors.

Intermediate Products:

This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to rise. Supply side, disruptions in the DRC heightened suppliers' expectations of supply contraction, intensifying sentiment to hold back cargoes, with scarce spot availability in the market and few quotations from producers. Demand side, downstream inquiries were generally active. Cobalt intermediate product spot prices are expected to continue rising this week.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):

This week, cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride prices continued to rise. Smelters' expectations of supply contraction for cobalt salts and intermediate products intensified, with a clear sentiment to stand firm on quotes and hold back cargoes, and some suspending quotations. Demand side, downstream precursor and Co3O4 enterprises maintained certain inventory levels but, driven by rapidly rising prices, considered additional restocking of cobalt salts beyond just-in-time needs. This drove a significant increase in downstream inquiry activity, with some spot orders transacted at high prices, further pushing prices upward. Cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride prices are expected to continue rising this week.

Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):

This week, Co3O4 prices showed a significant upward trend. Currently, most Co3O4 smelters have suspended quotations, with sentiment to hold back cargoes becoming increasingly intense. This has led to a notable increase in market inquiries. Although transaction volumes were limited, some high-price transactions effectively pushed spot prices higher. Meanwhile, as a key raw material, cobalt salt prices have risen sharply due to upstream cost increases, further exacerbating production cost pressures for Co3O4. Under the dual impact of supply tightening and cost increases, Co3O4 spot prices have significant room for further growth. Demand side, LCO producers have low inventory levels and will need to procure high-priced raw materials for subsequent production. Considering multiple factors, Co3O4 prices are expected to continue rising next week.

Nickel Sulphate:

As of Thursday this week, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,916 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 26,840-27,560 yuan/mt, and the average price increased WoW.
Supply side, the MHP coefficient continued to rise, coupled with stronger LME nickel prices, exacerbating losses for nickel salt smelters and intensifying sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Some nickel salt smelters, affected by rising MHP coefficients and losses, may consider production cuts. Demand side, fluctuations in cobalt prices further increased losses for precursor plants, slowing their nickel salt procurement pace. This week, sentiment for nickel salt procurement was weak, with reduced inquiry activity.
Overall, given the sentiment to stand firm on quotes due to losses at nickel salt smelters and the unfinished just-in-time restocking of nickel salts by precursor plants, there remains some procurement demand. Nickel sulphate prices are expected to continue rising next week.

Ternary Cathode Precursors:

This week, prices for 5-series consumer-grade, 6-series consumer-grade, and 8-series power-grade ternary cathode precursors continued to rise significantly.
Raw material costs, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices continued to rise slightly, while cobalt sulphate prices surged significantly, driven by the DRC's cobalt export ban, leading to varying degrees of price increases across precursor series.
Demand side, cathode material producers generally held sufficient precursor inventory to sustain production this week. Some material plants, anticipating further raw material price increases, showed certain purchase willingness and conducted limited restocking. Supply side, significant increases in raw material costs deepened losses for precursor producers, prompting them to raise spot order quotation coefficients. Currently, precursor producers and downstream material plants remain in a price negotiation phase, with overall order signing activity being mediocre.
Looking ahead to this week, given the sentiment to stand firm on quotes amid losses at precursor producers and expectations of rising raw material prices, precursor prices are likely to increase further.

Ternary Cathode Materials:

On Monday, prices for 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary cathode materials continued to rise significantly, driven by cobalt sulphate price increases. Market sellers showed a clear sentiment to raise prices, and some precursor and cathode enterprises suspended quotations, causing supply chain disruptions and posing challenges to stable production across various segments. Production costs are expected to rise in the short term.
Cathode enterprises are at a disadvantage in negotiating agreements with downstream clients, potentially facing another loss in 2025. As a result, order signing remains incomplete. With sulphate prices rising to some extent, driving up precursor procurement costs, ternary material enterprises have frequently stood firm on quotes and refrained from selling. Prices of ternary materials are expected to continue rising further this month. LFP: Lithium carbonate prices dropped by approximately 800 yuan/mt this week. LFP processing fees remained relatively stable overall, but some material manufacturers recently implemented price increases for processing fees, mainly targeting mid-to-high compaction products. SMM's LFP price processing fee component is expected to be adjusted soon. Regarding lithium carbonate discounts, negotiations have not been fully concluded. Downstream battery cell manufacturers still exhibit sentiment to lower discounts, while some material manufacturers have reduced customer-supplied lithium carbonate volumes, increasing the risk of potential losses for material manufacturers. Negotiations are ongoing. Supply side, LFP material manufacturers' operating rates were relatively stable this week, but some medium and small-sized LFP manufacturers reduced or halted production. Top-tier material manufacturers maintained stable production. Demand side, some downstream battery cell manufacturers slightly reduced February procurement volumes, causing minor adjustments in the supply chain structure and an overall inventory increase in February. Iron Phosphate: The iron phosphate market remained relatively stable this week. With the arrival of March, demand for iron phosphate is gradually rebounding, and most enterprises plan to increase production according to established targets. However, raw material supply remains tight, with industrial ammonium supply constrained and ferrous sulphate in a delicate balance. In this market environment, iron phosphate enterprises are seeking to enhance product differentiation and performance to increase selling prices and shorten payment cycles, ensuring stable and secure cash flow. These measures demonstrate the enterprises' market sensitivity and adaptability, reflecting their positive outlook on future market development. LCO: This week, LCO spot prices surged significantly. The latest prices for 4.2V, 4.4V, and 4.5V LCO were 152,000 yuan/mt, 156,000 yuan/mt, and 166,000 yuan/mt, respectively. The price increase was mainly driven by the DRC government's suspension of cobalt concentrate exports, leading to a spike in Co3O4 quotes. In the short term, cobalt salt prices are expected to continue rising. Although the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate declined, the risk premium for cobalt resource supply surged, and raw material costs for LCO are expected to rise further. Mainstream smartphone and laptop manufacturers maintained stable Q1 orders, with downstream LCO procurement driven by rigid demand. Top-tier battery enterprises indicated that a new product stockpiling cycle for tablets and wearable devices might emerge in late March, with marginal demand improvement expected. The market holds a bullish outlook on LCO prices, anticipating further policy support to drive market demand recovery and stabilize prices. Anode: This week, anode material prices showed an upward trend. Cost side, the previous surge in low-sulphur petroleum coke prices led anode enterprises to reduce procurement volumes due to losses. Meanwhile, many refineries entered a five-year major maintenance cycle, reducing petroleum coke supply. Despite weak supply and demand, low-sulphur petroleum coke prices only pulled back slightly this week and continued to fluctuate at highs. Needle coke prices, which had risen earlier, saw limited pullbacks this week due to low profitability at needle coke plants. Graphitisation costs remained stagnant as high electricity costs squeezed outsourcing profits, despite sufficient outsourcing supply. Demand side, the market gradually recovered from the off-season, with demand rebounding. Supply side, despite growing demand, anode material supply did not increase significantly due to high raw material costs. Looking ahead, with raw material costs remaining high and market recovery continuing, anode material prices are expected to rise further. Separator: This week, lithium battery separator prices remained stable. In the past, the separator industry experienced prolonged and intense price competition, pressuring enterprise profits and fostering a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. From a supply and demand perspective, while the market showed signs of recovery, downstream demand growth remained sluggish, and separator enterprises' operating rates did not increase significantly, resulting in weak supply and demand. In this context, downstream battery cell manufacturers, aiming to ensure supply chain stability, largely refrained from pressuring separator prices, keeping prices stable this week. Looking ahead, dry-process separators are unlikely to see further price reductions as profits have already fallen below cost lines. However, with the gradual release of new wet-process separator capacity, demand growth is expected to lag behind capacity expansion, perpetuating an oversupply market structure. In this scenario, wet-process separator enterprises may engage in another round of intense price competition to secure more market orders. However, given the already low prices of wet-process separators, further price reductions are expected to be minimal. Electrolyte: Electrolyte prices remained stable this week. Cost side, core raw material prices, including LiPF6, solvents, and additives, also remained stable, keeping overall electrolyte costs steady. Demand side, end-use demand recovered slowly, maintaining stable electrolyte procurement. Supply side, electrolyte manufacturers produced according to battery cell manufacturers' orders, while LiPF6 enterprises also produced based on electrolyte manufacturers' order demands. Both electrolyte and LiPF6 procurement remained stable. In the short term, cost fluctuations are expected to cause electrolyte prices to oscillate within a certain range. Sodium-Ion Battery: The sodium-ion battery market is expected to transition from demonstration projects to market-driven growth, achieving explosive growth. Although low lithium battery prices have impacted the economic advantages of sodium-ion batteries, their low cost, high performance, safety, and excellent low-temperature performance continue to offer broad application prospects. Significant progress was made this week in sodium-ion battery technology R&D, industrialisation, and market expansion. With continuous technological breakthroughs and gradual industry chain improvement, the future of sodium-ion batteries looks promising. Recycling: Supply side, with nickel salt and cobalt salt prices continuing to rise this week, ternary and LCO black mass prices also increased, with powdering plants and traders raising their psychological price levels. However, ternary and LCO black mass coefficients changed little WoW, rising by only 0.5-1 coefficient. For example, most enterprises maintained safe inventory levels for ternary pole piece black mass. Due to long-term cost-price inversions, enterprises were cautious about accepting high-priced black mass, resulting in mediocre market transactions. Demand side, the price increases for cobalt salt and nickel salt partially offset the costs of ternary and pure cobalt scrap at hydrometallurgical plants. However, hydrometallurgical costs remain below profitability. Downstream and Terminal: This week, DC-side battery cabin prices fluctuated slightly. The average price for 5MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.43 yuan/Wh, while 3.44/3.77MWh DC-side battery cabins averaged 0.438 yuan/Wh. Following the release of Document No. 136, most integrators scheduled production orderly based on pre-March 30 orders, while a few manufacturers aimed to rush installations before the deadline. Tightened supply of 314Ah ESS battery cells caused slight fluctuations in some ESS battery cell prices. Overall, battery cell prices remained relatively stable, with minimal impact on DC-side battery cabin prices. On March 3, the winning bid result for the 100MW/400MWh ESS project EPC contract by Karamay Ganghong Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd. was announced. The project plans to build a 100MW/400MWh ESS power station 120m southeast of the Bai Jiantan 220kV substation in Bai Jiantan District, Karamay City. The first bidder quoted 438 million yuan, equivalent to 1.095 yuan/Wh. The second bidder quoted 448.64 million yuan, equivalent to 1.1216 yuan/Wh. The third bidder quoted 449.223 million yuan, equivalent to 1.1231 yuan/Wh. 》Subscribe to view historical spot prices of SMM new energy products 》Click to view the SMM New Energy Industry Chain Database News: 【Shanghai: 30% Subsidy for Charging Equipment Investment in Demonstration Communities Built After April 1, 2025】 The "Shanghai Measures to Encourage the Development of EV Charging and Battery Swapping Facilities" was released. It proposes a 30% subsidy for charging equipment investment in demonstration communities built after the implementation of the measures. The subsidy cap for DC and AC facilities is 600 yuan/kW and 300 yuan/kW, respectively. For demonstration community owners' committees, a one-time subsidy will be provided based on the number of new charging parking spaces. For general-purpose battery swapping stations (capable of cross-brand and cross-model services, the same hereinafter) and non-general-purpose battery swapping stations built after the implementation of the measures, a subsidy of 40% and 20%, respectively, will be provided for charging system and battery replacement system equipment (excluding batteries). The subsidy cap for power is 600 yuan/kW and 300 yuan/kW, respectively. The measures will take effect on April 1, 2025, and remain valid for five years. 【NPC Deputy Hongmei Wang: Suggests Supporting Leading NEV Battery Enterprises in Strengthening Global IP Layout】 During this year's Two Sessions, NPC Deputy and CATL senior technician Hongmei Wang proposed eight suggestions. Wang suggested taking strong measures to support leading NEV battery enterprises in strengthening their global intellectual property layout through funding, talent, and policy support, further expanding their competitive edge. She also emphasized the importance of addressing major patent invalidation cases in the NEV battery industry, advocating for more thorough hearings and prudent handling of such cases. 【CPCA: China's Passenger Car Market Sales Expected to Maintain Strong Growth in March, NEVs to Be the Main Driver】 The CPCA released its March outlook for the national passenger car market. Following the Chinese New Year holiday, industries quickly resumed normal operations, leading to rapid MoM growth in production and sales in March. The external environment's dramatic changes and the emergence of unexpected multipolar phenomena are conducive to stabilizing consumption trends. As a result, China's passenger car market sales in March 2025 are expected to maintain strong growth, with NEVs as the main driver, while the traditional internal combustion engine vehicle market continues to shrink. SMM New Energy Research Team Cong Wang 021-51666838 Rui Ma 021-51595780 Ziya Lin 86-2151666902 Ye Yuan 021-51595792 Disheng Feng 021-51666714 Ying Xu 021-51666707 Yanlin Lü 021-20707875 Yujun Liu 021-20707895 Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711