Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract on March 11, 2025
The Most-Traded Contract: SN2504 (SHFE Tin 2504)Closing Price: 263,030 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan (+0.11%) from the previous trading day. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened higher in the morning and fluctuated throughout the session, with the intraday price center hovering around 263,000 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 263,030 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 59,819 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,248 lots to 30,052 lots, indicating some funds exited at high levels. Currently, the price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract is above the 20-day moving average, and the MACD indicator shows an intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The reduction in open interest suggests some bulls took profits, but overall, funds remain cautiously on the sidelines.
Overseas Market Linkage: The LME three-month tin contract closed at $32,650/mt, with the SHFE-LME price ratio declining as SHFE tin's gains lagged behind LME tin. On the day, total trading volume for all SHFE tin futures contracts reached 86,240 lots, while total open interest increased slightly by 824 lots to 60,474 lots, indicating stable market activity. In the spot market, downstream buyers exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment, and spot premiums/discounts remained at low levels, reflecting limited support from actual demand.
Myanmar Resumption Expectations: The process for obtaining permits for the resumption of Myanmar tin mines has been announced, heightening market expectations for a more relaxed supply of tin concentrates.
Indonesia Export Recovery: Indonesia's tin exports in March are expected to continue growing, further alleviating supply pressure.
Demand Side Performance:Currently, high tin prices are suppressing downstream restocking willingness, with end-use sectors such as electronic solder and tinplate primarily engaging in just-in-time procurement. However, policies promoting "trade-in" and high production schedules in the home appliance sector provide potential support for demand.
Macro and Capital MarketDomestic Policies: The Two Sessions have sent signals of stabilizing growth, and the central bank is encouraging medium and long-term funds to enter the market, boosting expectations for economic recovery.
Overseas Disturbances: US tariff policies and fluctuations in US equities are suppressing risk appetite for commodities, but expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts continue to provide bottom-line support for metal prices.
Trend Strategy: In the short term, it is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach, focusing on the resistance level at 265,000 yuan/mt and the support level at 260,000 yuan/mt.
