Lithium Ore:
This week, spodumene prices showed a slight downward trend WoW. The main reasons were the downward fluctuation of lithium carbonate prices and the pessimistic expectations of further declines, leading some buyers to show limited purchase willingness for high-priced spodumene, which in turn forced a slight decrease in overseas ore prices. Regarding lepidolite, this week, the auction transaction price of 2.5% grade by Yichun Mining was 2,260 yuan/mt, providing certain price guidance for small and medium-sized traders. Small and medium-sized suppliers faced a dilemma between cost pressure and market risks, with moderate willingness to sell. Constrained by the current undersupply of lithium concentrates, the downward trend is expected to lag behind lithium carbonate prices.
Lithium Carbonate:
This week, the transaction price center of spot lithium carbonate continued to decline, with a drop of around 300 yuan/mt. From the current market transactions, downstream material plants generally showed weak purchase willingness, with fewer inquiries and transactions compared to last week. Only some enterprises had just-in-time procurement restocking needs. On the supply side, the continued surplus of lithium carbonate dragged spot prices downward, reducing the production motivation of some lithium chemical plants. Weekly output struggled to increase further but remained at high levels. Considering the performance of both sellers and buyers, the surplus situation of lithium carbonate is difficult to reverse. Although upstream lithium chemical plants' strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes provided some price support, high inventory levels among traders might lower the transaction price center of lithium carbonate. Spot prices are expected to have further downside room, accompanied by sideways movement.
Lithium Hydroxide:
This week, lithium hydroxide prices continued to decline WoW. On the demand side, some ternary cathode material plants had decent orders, but as long-term contracts and customer-supplied lithium chemicals met current production needs, demand for spot lithium hydroxide was limited, with weak purchase willingness. On the supply side, due to high inventory levels and limited demand growth, the sentiment to stand firm on quotes softened, and willingness to sell increased. There was some room for negotiation during transactions, with discounts trending downward. In the short term, lithium hydroxide prices are expected to remain on a downward trend.
Refined Cobalt:
This week, refined cobalt prices continued to rise. On the supply side, refined cobalt supply was relatively sufficient, with smelters generally adopting a strategy of holding back goods to stand firm on quotes. On the demand side, downstream inquiries were active, with some follow-up transactions, and overseas traders showed strong purchase willingness. At the market level, smelters maintained a strong sentiment to hold back goods, coupled with some traders selling to transfer to delivery warehouses, leading to heightened speculative sentiment and continuously rising spot quotes. Next week, constrained by difficulties in upstream cobalt salt procurement, refined cobalt spot prices are expected to continue rising.
Intermediate Products:
This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to rise. On the supply side, logistics from South Africa to Chinese ports remained normal, but the supply contraction expectations triggered by the DRC's cobalt export suspension policy continued to ferment. Producers generally adopted a strategy of holding back inventory, leading to scarce market circulation. On the demand side, downstream salt plants had low long-term contract coverage rates, with active inquiries and just-in-time procurement needs. Currently, only sporadic spot orders were transacted, driving spot prices upward. Next week, the short-term supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to ease, and cobalt intermediate product prices are expected to remain on an upward trajectory.
Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):
This week, cobalt salt prices rose significantly. Following the DRC's announcement of a cobalt export suspension, market sentiment continued to heat up, intensifying the sentiment of cobalt salt producers to hold back goods, with spot quotes climbing by nearly 80%. Many enterprises adopted a strategy of small-volume, high-price transactions, further pushing up cobalt salt spot prices. Currently, the market has shown a situation of high quotes but no transactions. Next week, driven by the continued price increase, high-priced spot orders may emerge, and cobalt salt producers' sentiment to stand firm on quotes is expected to strengthen further, with cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride prices likely to continue rising.
Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):
This week, Co3O4 prices rose significantly, with market sentiment to hold prices firm continuing to strengthen. As smelters generally suspended quotes and held back inventory, the market increasingly showed a situation of high quotes but no transactions. As a result, inquiries from LCO producers increased, with some high-priced spot orders transacted, driving Co3O4 spot prices higher. Meanwhile, cobalt salt producers also strengthened their sentiment to hold back goods, further raising Co3O4 production costs. Under the dual pressures of tight supply and rising costs, Co3O4 spot prices have significant upward potential. On the demand side, LCO producers had low inventory levels and needed to procure high-priced raw materials for future production. Therefore, Co3O4 prices are expected to continue rising next week.
Nickel Sulphate:
As of Thursday this week, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 27,553 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 27,500-28,200 yuan/mt, and the average price increased WoW. On the supply side, LME nickel prices fluctuated at high levels this week, exacerbating the losses faced by nickel salt smelters, further driving their sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Currently, nickel salt smelters' inventory levels are low, and market circulation is relatively limited. Some nickel salt smelters, under pressure from losses, may consider production cuts. On the demand side, some precursor plants have yet to complete their March just-in-time restocking needs, with restocking demand still present. However, due to rising raw material costs, precursor plants faced significant losses, slowing their restocking pace. Overall, given the limited market circulation of nickel salts and the sentiment to raise prices driven by smelters' losses, nickel sulphate prices are expected to continue rising next week.
Ternary Cathode Precursors:
This week, prices of 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary cathode precursor products showed a significant upward trend.
In terms of raw material costs, influenced by the DRC's cobalt export ban and the overall sentiment to stand firm on quotes in the raw material market, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices continued to rise slightly, while cobalt sulphate prices rose sharply, driving up precursor prices across all series.
On the demand side, some material plants began small-scale stockpiling in anticipation of continued raw material price increases, while some small and medium-sized material plants, lacking back-to-back raw material support, showed certain purchase needs. Although the market overall remained cautious, purchase willingness increased significantly compared to last week. On the supply side, the sharp rise in raw material costs exacerbated the losses faced by precursor producers, leading to strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, with spot order coefficients adjusted upward.
Looking ahead to next week, sulphate prices are expected to continue rising. Under the combined influence of strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes among precursor producers and certain restocking demand downstream, precursor prices are likely to rise further.
Ternary Cathode Materials:
This week, prices of 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary cathode materials rose sharply due to increases in cobalt sulphate and nickel sulphate prices. Market sellers showed strong sentiment to raise prices, with some precursor and cathode enterprises halting quotes. Although some enterprises' spot quotes were far above the cost increase, transactions were limited in the absence of actual demand. Despite supply chain fluctuations, some leading cathode material enterprises maintained stable precursor supply, with no adjustments to long-term contract details or coefficients with downstream clients. Price changes were mainly concentrated in spot orders and new orders. For other enterprises needing precursor raw materials, production costs rose sharply in the short term.
In settlements with downstream battery manufacturers, some cathode material companies are at a disadvantage in negotiating agreements and may face the risk of losses again in 2025. Therefore, amid the recent rise in raw material prices, some ternary cathode material companies have adopted the stance of "preferring to halt production and incur losses rather than deliver at low prices," raising requirements for coefficients and details in agreements. However, as of mid-March, many companies have yet to finalize orders. With the widespread increase in sulphate prices, precursor procurement costs have risen, and ternary cathode material companies have shown a clear tendency to stand firm on quotes and hold back cargoes. It is expected that ternary cathode material prices will continue to rise further later this month.
LFP:
This week, LFP market prices continued the downward trend from last week. Raw material side, lithium carbonate prices fell by about 300 yuan/mt this week. Along with the recent implementation of price increases for processing fees of mid- to high-compaction products, LFP packaging processing fees increased slightly this week. Regarding lithium carbonate discounts, negotiations have not yet been fully concluded. Supply side, as of now, orders from some leading first- and second-tier LFP material manufacturers have declined compared to the full production plans at the beginning of the month, and actual production has not met production schedule expectations. However, overall production still increased compared to February. Demand side, downstream battery cell manufacturers' overall production schedules showed a significant increase compared to February, especially for high-compaction density products.
Iron Phosphate:
This week, the price of industrial-grade MAP, a key raw material for iron phosphate, rose significantly, with ex-factory prices once surpassing the 6,500 yuan/mt mark. This phenomenon is mainly attributed to the increased use of fertilizers for spring farming in the downstream agricultural sector, leading to higher phosphoric acid costs. Meanwhile, demand for iron phosphate is in a recovery phase, while the supply of industrial-grade MAP remains tight, with inventory levels staying low. As a result, iron phosphate companies face considerable challenges in procuring industrial-grade MAP. However, as it is still mid-month, most iron phosphate companies typically conduct business negotiations at the end of the month or the beginning of the next, so iron phosphate prices have not shown significant increases. Current market demand remains weak, which also makes price hikes challenging.
LCO:
This week, LCO prices were significantly affected by sharp fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, with the latest prices for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V LCO at 196,000/200,000/210,000 yuan/mt, respectively. Co3O4 prices rose from 160,000 yuan/mt, with some producers suspending quotes and holding back cargoes. Sporadic market transaction prices have exceeded 195,000 yuan/mt, with weekly increases of over 22%. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate slightly declined, mainly due to increased operating rates at lithium chemical companies and weak end-use demand. The 3C sector showed mixed performance, with stable Q1 orders from mobile phone and laptop manufacturers, and LCO procurement driven by rigid demand. In the short term, the risk premium for cobalt resource supply still has upside room, and LCO prices are expected to remain bullish.
Anode:
This week, anode material prices continued their upward trend. Supply and demand side, the market gradually emerged from the off-season, with both supply and demand showing growth. Cost side, low-sulphur petroleum coke prices declined recently due to weakened anode demand, while needle coke prices had previously risen, leading anode material companies to adopt a more conservative procurement approach and push for price reductions. However, as needle coke prices have been fluctuating at low levels for a long time, some needle coke manufacturers saw limited price pullbacks this week. Graphitisation electricity costs remained high, leaving narrow profit margins and generating upward pricing sentiment. Against the backdrop of increased demand in March, Acheson furnace graphitisation outsourcing prices rose. However, due to sufficient market supply, prices are unlikely to see significant increases. For box furnaces, as many integrated production lines of anode companies use box furnaces, demand for outsourcing box furnace services remains limited, and prices are relatively stagnant.
Separator: This week, dry-process lithium battery separator prices showed an upward trend, while wet-process separator prices remained stable.
From the perspective of market supply and demand, as the market recovers, downstream demand has increased, and separator manufacturers' operating rates have also risen. Separator material prices had been suppressed to low levels due to previous price wars, leaving separator manufacturers with limited profit margins. Separator companies have shown intentions to stand firm on quotes, particularly for dry-process separators, where material prices have already fallen below cost lines, leading to strong upward pricing sentiment. Looking ahead, some new wet-process separator capacities have not yet reached full production, and the market structure of oversupply is unlikely to change in the short term. Against this backdrop, wet-process separator manufacturers may engage in another round of intense price competition to secure more market orders. However, given that wet-process separator prices are already at low levels, the extent of future price reductions is expected to be very limited.
Electrolyte:
This week, electrolyte prices declined, with the average price for ternary power-use electrolyte at 24,500 yuan/mt and LFP-use electrolyte at 20,000 yuan/mt. Cost side: The price of its core raw material, LiPF6, dropped significantly, with an average price of 60,900 yuan/mt. Prices of solvents and FEC additives also declined, while VC prices remained stable, leading to an overall decrease in electrolyte costs. Demand side: End-use demand recovered slowly, maintaining stable electrolyte procurement. Supply side: Electrolyte manufacturers produced based on orders from battery cell manufacturers, while LiPF6 companies also produced according to the demand from electrolyte manufacturers. Both electrolyte and LiPF6 procurement remained stable. In the short term, cost-side fluctuations are expected to lead to further declines in electrolyte prices.
Sodium-Ion Battery:
This week, the sodium-ion battery market remained in a recovery phase, but all aspects showed positive development trends. As all segments of the industry chain gradually return to normal operations, with sodium-ion battery cathode and anode materials, battery cells, and other supporting production lines being launched successively in 2025, if mass production is successfully achieved, sodium-ion battery costs are expected to drop significantly, further enhancing its market competitiveness. Various market participants are closely monitoring industry dynamics and actively preparing to seize opportunities brought by the rapid development of the sodium-ion battery market, promoting its more significant role in the future energy sector.
Recycling:
This week, cascade utilization market prices remained stable. Raw material side, recent increases in nickel and cobalt prices led some battery manufacturers and traders to show a tendency to stand firm on quotes. However, cascade utilization companies showed low acceptance levels, as prolonged inventory holding would further reduce battery cell prices. Battery manufacturers cannot hold battery cells for extended periods without selling, resulting in overall stable cascade prices. Supply side, battery cell manufacturers' production increased MoM, with battery cell production rising accordingly. The production of A- and B-grade battery cells increased YoY. Additionally, local bus battery replacement projects began execution, bringing a certain volume of cascade battery cell supply. Demand side, cascade utilization companies maintained stable production, but downstream demand remained limited to streetlights, small power, small storage, and some electric equipment, with weak acceptance capacity. In the short term, the market may continue to see battery manufacturers and traders standing firm on quotes due to nickel and cobalt salt price impacts. However, as the cascade market is a supply-and-demand market, and cascade battery cells remain more profitable compared to crushed materials for powdering, cascade battery cell prices are expected to remain stable amid the tug-of-war between weak downstream demand and upstream firm quotes. In the longer term, as cascade utilization technology struggles to ensure comprehensive safety in the short term, downstream demand is unlikely to rise rapidly. With expected increases in battery cell production and retirement volumes, cascade battery cell prices face further downward pressure.
Downstream and End-Use:
This week, DC-side battery cabin prices remained stable. The average price for a 5MWh DC-side battery cabin was 0.43 yuan/Wh; for 3.44/3.77MWh DC-side battery cabins, the average price was 0.438 yuan/Wh. Following the release of Document No. 136, most energy storage system integrators scheduled production and shipments as needed. A small number of integrators rushed for installations after the June 1 power market reform period, causing tight supply-demand balance for 314 battery cells and resulting in price fluctuations. However, as DC-side costs have reached a certain bottleneck, battery cell price fluctuations had limited impact on the DC side, and overall DC-side battery cabin prices remained stable.
On March 10, the bid-winning candidates for the EPC general contracting of the 115.345MW/230.69MWh grid-side ESS project in Binhai New Area, Hai'an City, Jiangsu Province, were announced. The project is located in Binhai New Area, Hai'an City, Jiangsu Province. The first bid-winning candidate quoted 194.8844 million yuan, with a unit price of 0.8448 yuan/Wh. The second bid-winning candidate quoted 194.9428 million yuan, with a unit price of 0.845 yuan/Wh.
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SMM New Energy Research Team
Cong Wang 021-51666838
Rui Ma 021-51595780
Ziya Lin 86-2151666902
Disheng Feng 021-51666714
Yanlin Lü 021-20707875
Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711
