SMM

[Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Price Index]

[Shanghai Market Analysis]
I. Price System

1. Main Grades: Baosteel B50A800 quoted at 5,230 yuan/mt, WISCO 50WW800 quoted at 5,080 yuan/mt (WoW 0%)
2. Price Spread Structure: State-owned resources premium at 150 yuan/mt, price difference with private resources widened by 50 yuan

II. Market Performance

1. Futures Linkage: The most-traded rebar contract fell 1.2% WoW, and the most-traded HRC contract dropped 0.8% WoW
2. Trading Characteristics: Daily average trading volume at 2,100 mt, down 9% WoW, with rigid demand accounting for 85%
3. Inventory Data: Total inventory at 56,300 mt (-5,500 mt WoW), inventory turnover days decreased to 18 days

III. Driving Factors

1. Supply Side: Baosteel Zhanjiang's No. 2 production line maintenance extended to the end of March
2. Demand Side: Operating rate of motor enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta at 72%, up 3% WoW
3. Cost Side: Ferrosilicon prices rose 2.1% WoW, supporting electric furnace steel costs

IV. Market Outlook
Prices may decline within a 50-yuan range, with focus on:
① Baosteel's April futures price policy
② Tesla's Shanghai plant expansion progress
③ Results of the US Fed's March meeting

The fundamentals of the steel market showed no significant improvement recently, with considerable resistance to price boosts for general steel products. Coupled with the continued weak fluctuation in the futures market, market sentiment remained cautious. Downstream motor enterprises mostly purchased on demand, with low willingness for bulk stockpiling. Overall, some specifications of silicon steel in the Shanghai market are expected to see slight downward adjustments next week, with key attention on the resumption of certain production lines and inventory changes in the market.

[Wuhan Market Analysis]
I. Price Dynamics

1. Main Grades: WISCO 50WW800 quoted at 5,100 yuan/mt (WoW 0%)
2. Regional Price Spread: 130 yuan/mt lower than Shanghai, 280 yuan/mt higher than Guangzhou

II. Market Characteristics

1. Inventory Level: Social inventory at 41,000 mt, at the 25th percentile of the past 12 months
2. Trading Structure: Traders accounted for 40%, while end-user direct purchases accounted for 60%
3. Logistics Index: Yangtze River shipping price index rose 1.5% WoW

III. Supply and Demand Logic

1. Supply Side: WISCO's planned shipments this month increased by 5% MoM
2. Demand Side: Gree's Wuhan base increased its March production schedule by 12%
3. Policy Side: Hubei's NEV subsidy policy extended

IV. Trend Forecast
Prices may remain rangebound, with focus on:
① WISCO's export orders for oriented silicon steel
② Start of the rainy season in Central China
③ Domestic wind power project tendering pace

Current market demand growth is limited, and merchants maintain a cautious wait-and-see sentiment toward the market outlook. Overall, the spot price of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Wuhan market is expected to remain stable next week.

[Guangzhou Market Analysis]
I. Price Fluctuation

1. Main Grades: Baosteel Zhanjiang B50A800 quoted at 4,850 yuan/mt (unchanged)
   Angang 50AW800 quoted at 4,820 yuan/mt, Shougang Group 50SW800 quoted at 4,970 yuan/mt (+50 yuan)
2. Price Spread System: Price difference between north and south China widened to 350 yuan/mt, hitting a new high for the year

II. Market Dynamics

1. Inventory Changes: Total inventory at 72,000 mt (+3,000 mt WoW), inventory days increased to 22 days
2. Supply Structure: Local enterprises in Guangdong accounted for 65% of production, with inflows from other provinces up 20%
3. Trading Sentiment: Purchasing index at 48.7, in contraction territory

III. Driving Factors

1. Cost Side: Indonesian ferronickel import prices rose 3.5% WoW
2. Demand Side: Foshan's home appliance export orders index at 51.2, up 2.3 MoM
3. Policy Side: Guangdong's "Carbon Peak" action plan implemented

IV. Trend Prediction
Prices may show an N-shaped trend, with focus on:
① Zhanjiang Steel's cold-rolling unit maintenance plan
② BYD's Huizhou plant expansion progress
③ Changes in Vietnam's HRC imports

Overall, silicon steel supply is increasing, with moderate total inventory levels. Merchants face average pressure to ship goods, leading to varying degrees of price reductions to stimulate sales. In summary, the spot price of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Guangzhou market is expected to continue fluctuating rangebound next week.