[SMM Analysis] Nickel Prices Fluctuate Considerably in the Short Term

March 10-14 Nickel Market Overview: Nickel Prices Fluctuate Considerably in the Short Term, Facing Surplus Pressure in the Medium Term This week, nickel prices remained strong, successfully breaking through 135,000 yuan today, driven by other metals. Spot prices fluctuated between 130,700-135,900 yuan/mt, while SHFE nickel futures prices ranged from 129,450-135,550 yuan/mt. This week, nickel prices continued to perform strongly in the market, breaking through the 135,000 yuan mark on March 14. This increase was mainly driven by the tin market. In the short term, nickel prices remain relatively strong, but the upside room is limited. From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's February CPI data came in below market expectations, fueling expectations of an interest rate cut. Meanwhile, developments in Indonesia have drawn attention: on one hand, the new nickel ore tax policy has impacted market sentiment; on the other hand, adjustments to the calculation method for nickel ore HPM prices have strengthened expectations for policy implementation. As a result, nickel ore prices are expected to remain supported in the short term, with a slight upward trend possible, though the overall upside is limited. On the supply and demand side, nickel fundamentals remain weak, with an expected MoM growth of 13.56% in March. Downstream purchasing sentiment is poor, and despite recent reductions in premiums and discounts by traders, the market remains largely in a wait-and-see mode, with limited restocking driven by rigid demand. Overall, the impact of speculation around Indonesian policies on the market is diminishing, while fundamentals remain weak. Short-term prices are firm, but the upside room is constrained. As of March 14, Jinchuan brand premiums and discounts ranged from 1,150-1,500 yuan/mt, with an average of 1,250 yuan/mt. Recently, nickel prices have been influenced by overseas macro factors, and prices are expected to remain firm next week, though the upside room is limited. In summary, nickel prices showed slight strength this week under the combined influence of macro and micro factors. However, the surplus situation in the market has not improved, and downstream sentiment remains cautious, with some rigid demand restocking observed. In the short term, sentiment's impact on nickel prices is gradually weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels next week. Spot nickel prices are forecast to range between 131,000-139,400 yuan/mt, while futures prices are expected to move within the 131,000-138,000 yuan/mt range. Bonded Zone Inventory Remained Flat WoW In terms of inventory, according to the latest SMM survey data, nickel inventory in the bonded zone this week stood at 5,500 mt, unchanged from last week. Inventory SMM's six-region inventory totaled 49,238 mt, up 4,461 mt WoW. In the short term, the impact of sentiment on nickel prices has weakened but remains stronger than the influence of fundamentals. Downstream sentiment remains cautious, with some rigid demand restocking observed.

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[SMM Analysis] Nickel Prices Fluctuate Considerably in the Short Term

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