Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract on March 17, 2025
On March 17, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin SN2504 contract opened higher in the morning session but pulled back during the day, closing at 283,520 yuan/mt, up 0.27% from the previous day. The intraday fluctuation range was 282,490-285,000 yuan/mt. Open interest decreased by 7,078 lots to 77,928 lots, indicating a capital outflow trend in the market. LME tin also pulled back to 35,490 US dollars/mt.
Policy Support Boosts Sentiment: The State Council Information Office held a press conference signaling efforts to stabilize consumption, and the central bank is studying the introduction of financial measures to support consumption expansion, leading to a temporary improvement in market sentiment.
Key Technical Level Contest: The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated above the support level of 285,000 yuan/mt, with significant resistance at the psychological level of 300,000 yuan/mt, requiring stronger momentum to break through.
Short-Term Risks: Visible inventory increases (e.g., higher LME transfers to delivery warehouses), easing tensions in Congo, or potential policy relaxation in Indonesia could trigger a pullback, possibly testing the cost line of 260,000-270,000 yuan/mt. The SHFE tin market is currently in a phase of contention between supply-driven events and weak demand realities, and it may continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term.
