US Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Metals Show Mixed Performance, Alumina Falls Below 3,000 Yuan, Gold Price Hits New High [Overnight Market]

Overnight, the overseas and domestic markets showed mixed performance. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.02% increase, while LME tin and LME zinc both fell by over 1%, with LME tin down 1.11% and LME zinc down 1.2%. SHFE tin dropped 0.95%, and SHFE copper rose 0.72%. Other metals saw minor fluctuations in % change. The main alumina contract fell 1.97% overnight, breaking below the key level of 3,000 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday low of 2,970 yuan/mt, the lowest since December 2023. Most items declined, with stainless steel being the only one to rise, up 0.04%. Iron ore fell 0.98%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal dropped 0.63%, and coke fell 1.27%. On March 19, COMEX gold rose 0.55% overnight, and after opening on March 20, it continued to climb, repeatedly hitting new historical highs. As of 8:22, COMEX gold reached an intraday high of $3,063.2/oz. COMEX silver fell 1.14% overnight. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.16%, while SHFE silver fell 0.64%. >> Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard The People's Bank of China held the 2025 Payment and Settlement Work Conference. The meeting emphasized coordinating government and market efforts to enhance regulatory efficiency in the payment industry, balancing costs and benefits to improve the quality and efficiency of payment services for the real economy, and integrating compliance with innovation to strengthen payment and clearing infrastructure. It also stressed balancing development and security to promote high-level opening-up in the payment sector and fostering a loyal, clean, and responsible payment talent team by correctly understanding the relationship between compliance and proactive action. The General Offices of the Ministry of Transport, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Finance issued the "2025 Implementation Details for Subsidies on New Energy Urban Buses and Power Battery Replacement." Using ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, subsidies will be provided to urban bus companies for updating new energy urban buses and replacing power batteries. The average subsidy per vehicle is 80,000 yuan, with 42,000 yuan per vehicle specifically for power battery replacement. The US dollar rose 0.21% overnight. The US Fed kept its target range for the benchmark overnight interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% and hinted at two potential interest rate cuts later this year, each by 25 basis points, consistent with the median forecast three months ago. The Fed also projected slower economic growth and higher inflation. Additionally, the Fed announced it would slow the pace of balance sheet reduction, faced challenges in assessing market liquidity, and noted the US Congress's deadlock over raising the government borrowing limit. Traders still expect the Fed to cut interest rates at least twice by December, each by 25 basis points, with a 62.2% probability of at least a 25-basis-point cut in June. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday that the current uncertainty is "exceptionally high," describing the challenges Fed officials face in making new economic forecasts amid a series of new government policies. The Fed also indicated it would slow its ongoing balance sheet reduction, known as quantitative tightening. (Compiled by Wenhua) The euro fell 0.3% against the US dollar to $1.0912, having earlier dropped to $1.086. Federal funds futures, which measure interbank unsecured overnight lending rates, indicate a 64-basis-point rate cut this year, equivalent to two rate cuts, aligning with the Fed's rate forecast released on Wednesday. The US dollar rose 3.6% against the Turkish lira to 37.97, having earlier reached a record high of 42. The US dollar fell 0.3% against the Japanese yen to 148.85 yen after the Bank of Japan kept its interest rates unchanged earlier on Wednesday. The Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, highlighting policymakers' preference to take more time to assess the impact of US tariff hikes on global economic risks, which could affect Japan's fragile economic recovery. (Compiled by Wenhua) Today, China will release the March one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the March five-year LPR, and Hong Kong's March 20 base rate. The US will release data on the upper and lower bounds of the federal funds rate target as of March 19, Q4 current account, March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, initial jobless claims for the week ending March 15, and February existing home sales annualized total. The UK will release January unemployment rate (ILO standard), March CBI Industrial Orders Balance, January three-month average earnings growth rate including bonuses, and March Bank of England base rate. Australia will release February seasonally adjusted unemployment rate and employment change. Switzerland will release Q1 central bank policy rate, and New Zealand will release Q4 GDP annual growth rate (production method, seasonally adjusted). Additionally, the US Fed FOMC will announce its rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak at the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee hearing. The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England will also announce their rate decisions. Overnight, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI crude up 0.45% and Brent crude up 0.28%. Earlier, US government data showed a decline in fuel oil inventories, but the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged limited the gains. US government data showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week to 437 million barrels, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 512,000-barrel increase. However, distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.8 million barrels to 114.8 million barrels, far exceeding the expected 300,000-barrel decline. "The EIA data shows a net decline in inventories, including oil products, which is gradually bullish," said Josh Young, Chief Investment Officer at Bison Interests. Investors are also focusing on Ukraine ceasefire negotiations. Xinhua News Agency reported on March 19 that the US White House issued a statement saying US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky had a phone call that morning, agreeing on a "partial ceasefire" to stop attacks on energy facilities by Russia and Ukraine. Analysts noted that this move increases the possibility of peace and could eventually bring Russian oil back to the global market. However, achieving a full ceasefire remains highly uncertain. Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty stated, "Even if an agreement is reached, a significant increase in Russian energy exports will still take time to materialize. In the short term, the impact will mainly be on adjusting energy flows to secure more favorable prices." Russia, one of the world's largest oil suppliers, has seen its production decline due to restrictions on Russian energy. (Compiled by Wenhua)

US Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Metals Show Mixed Performance, Alumina Falls Below 3,000 Yuan, Gold Price Hits New High [Overnight Market]

US Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Metals Show Mixed Performance, Alumina Falls Below 3,000 Yuan, Gold Price Hits New High [Overnight Market]

Record-Breaking COMEX-LME Copper Price Spread Drives SHFE Copper Higher [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]