SMM Tin Morning Brief on March 20, 2025: Powell's Press Conference: The US Fed does not need to rush to adjust its policy stance and should observe based on data. It can ease or maintain a restrictive stance as needed. It is at a stage where it can cut interest rates or maintain the current significantly tight policy stance. Inflation remains slightly elevated. Further progress on inflation this year may be delayed. The baseline forecast is that inflation will be temporary. The US economy is strong, but surveys indicate increased economic uncertainty. Recent signs suggest a slowdown in consumer spending. Close attention will be paid to signs of weakness in hard data. Forecasters have slightly raised the probability of a recession, but it remains low. Labour market conditions are solid, with the overall labour market remaining balanced. Both hiring and layoff rates are at low levels, and a significant increase in layoffs could quickly translate into unemployment. Layoffs are significant for those affected but are not notable at the national level. The impact of tariffs is uncertain, with attention on the net effect of policies. Short-term inflation expectations are rising. In the night session, SHFE tin prices opened lower and trended downward, with the price center falling to around 278,000 yuan/mt. In the tin ingot spot market, trading remained sluggish yesterday, with most traders reporting poor sales and low purchasing willingness from downstream enterprises. Considering the decline in SHFE tin prices during the night session, restocking sentiment among downstream and end-user enterprises may improve, and today's spot market transactions are expected to pick up.
The US Fed States No Urgency to Adjust Policy Stance; Night Session SHFE Tin Price Decline May Boost Spot Market Transactions [SMM Tin Morning Brief]
- Mar 20, 2025, at 12:53 am
The US Fed Indicates No Urgency to Adjust Policy Stance
Night Session SHFE Tin Prices Decline, Potentially Boosting Spot Market Transactions
[SMM Tin Morning Brief] Powell's Press Conference: The US Fed sees no urgency to adjust its policy stance and will observe based on data. It may ease or maintain a restrictive stance as needed. The current stage allows for either an interest rate cut or maintaining the current significantly tight policy stance. Inflation remains slightly elevated. Further progress on inflation this year may be delayed. The baseline forecast is that inflation will be transitory. The US economy is strong, but surveys indicate rising economic uncertainty. Recent signs suggest a slowdown in consumer spending. Close attention will be paid to signs of weakness in hard data. Forecasters have slightly raised the probability of a recession, but it remains low. Labour market conditions are solid, with the overall labour market remaining balanced. Both hiring and layoff rates are at low levels, and a significant increase in layoffs could quickly translate into unemployment. While layoffs are significant for those affected, they are not notable on a national scale. The impact of tariffs remains uncertain, with attention on the net effects of policies. Short-term inflation expectations are rising.
During the night session, SHFE tin prices opened lower and continued to decline, with the price center dropping to around 278,000 yuan/mt. In the tin ingot spot market, transactions remained sluggish yesterday, with most traders reporting poor sales and low purchasing willingness from downstream enterprises. Considering the downward movement of SHFE tin prices during the night session, restocking sentiment among downstream and end-user enterprises may improve, and spot market transactions are expected to recover today.
