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US Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged at March Meeting SHFE Tin Prices Continue Weak Consolidation [SMM Tin Noon Commentary]
Mar 20, 2025, at 3:42 am
SMM Tin Noon Review: US Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged in March Meeting, SHFE Tin Prices Continue Weak Consolidation The most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2504) showed a low opening and fluctuating trend in the morning session. By midday close, the price was at 280,380 yuan/mt, down 0.35% from yesterday, with an intraday range of 278,800-281,200 yuan/mt. Open interest decreased slightly by 1,843 lots to 24,300 lots, as the market traded cautiously and funds continued to flow out. In the overseas market, LME tin rebounded slightly to $35,195/mt due to the impact of the US Fed's policy, but the price spread between domestic and overseas markets remained high, keeping the import window closed.
March 20, 2025 Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract
The most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2504) exhibited a low opening and fluctuating trend in the morning session. By midday close, the price was at 280,380 yuan/mt, down 0.35% from yesterday, with an intraday range of 278,800-281,200 yuan/mt. Open interest decreased slightly by 1,843 lots to 24,300 lots, indicating cautious trading and continued capital outflow. In the overseas market, LME tin rebounded slightly to $35,195/mt due to US Fed policy, but the price spread between domestic and overseas markets remained high, keeping the import window closed.
Interest Rate Decision "Hawkish with a Dovish Tilt": The US Fed's March meeting kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, but lowered the 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.7% (from 2.1%) and raised the inflation forecast (PCE to 2.7%). The dot plot indicated two rate cuts within the year, but there was increased divergence among officials, with four members supporting no rate cut.
Adjustment in Balance Sheet Reduction Pace: Starting April, the cap on US Treasury reductions will be lowered from $25 billion/month to $5 billion/month, signaling marginal easing in liquidity. However, concerns over policy lag led to a slight pullback in the US dollar index to 103.6, with gold hitting a record high and industrial metals under pressure.
The ongoing suppressive effect of the US Fed's policy on industrial metals, coupled with a marginally alleviated supply-demand imbalance in SHFE tin, contributed to the weak price performance in the morning. In the afternoon, attention should be paid to the technical support validity at 278,000 yuan/mt and whether LME tin can hold above the $35,000/mt level.
