Imported Lead Ingots Arrive in Ports Successively, Regional Disparities in Secondary Lead Become Prominent [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures Market: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,089.5/mt, briefly touched a high of $2,095.5/mt, and then fluctuated downward. Due to the strong rise in the US dollar index, LME lead continued to weaken after entering the European session, hitting a low of $2,048.5/mt before closing at $2,049.5/mt, down 1.89%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2505 contract opened lower with a gap at 17,580 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 17,620 yuan/mt, and was dragged down by LME lead, reaching a low of 17,550 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 17,580 yuan/mt, down 0.51%. Macro: Global Trade Tensions - ① Trump urged the US Fed to cut interest rate, stating that US tariffs were starting to impact the economy; ② Mexico's Minister of Economy: heading to Washington for trade talks on Thursday; ③ EU Trade Commissioner: considering postponing the implementation of the first round of retaliatory tariffs against the US until mid-April; ④ Trump: India will be subject to reciprocal tariffs from April 2. China's March LPR quotes: 1-year at 3.1%, over 5-year at 3.6%, unchanged for five consecutive months. PBOC: Preliminary statistics show that by the end of 2024, the total assets of China's financial institutions reached 49.559 trillion yuan, up 7.5% YoY. The State Administration for Market Regulation held a fair competition meeting for enterprises, planning to launch a special campaign against the abuse of administrative power to exclude or restrict competition. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at 17,625-17,645 yuan/mt, at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2504 contract. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, Tongguan, JCC, and Jinde lead were quoted at 17,615 yuan/mt, on parity with the SHFE 2504 contract. With SHFE lead maintaining a high-level consolidation, suppliers followed the market trend in their quotations, but due to the lack of delivery sources flowing into the market, there were fewer quotes. Additionally, some imported lead (mainly crude lead) entered the domestic market, with most going directly to factories, and a small amount also being quoted. Meanwhile, secondary lead smelters sold according to the market, but regional differences emerged. Mainstream areas saw secondary refined lead quotations at discounts of 75-0 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM 1# lead average price, while some regions saw lower prices at discounts of 200-180 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises mainly received long-term contracts at month-end, with limited spot orders, resulting in a lukewarm spot market. Inventory: On March 20, LME lead inventory increased by 3,200 mt to 232,425 mt. As of March 20, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations, as tracked by SMM, reached 74,000 mt, an increase of 2,300 mt from March 17 and 6,200 mt from March 13. Lead Price Forecast: This week, the SHFE 2503 lead contract completed delivery, and social lead ingot inventories accumulated. Recently, primary lead smelters in Henan entered maintenance, leading to a temporary tightening of lead supply. At the same time, some imported lead ingots completed customs clearance and entered the domestic market, with most going directly to factories. Some secondary lead smelters indicated that self-pick-up at ports was at a discount of 200 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price, and some downstream battery companies mentioned that a small discount could be delivered. Recently, SHFE lead has been fluctuating upward, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in refined lead supply.

SMM

Imported Lead Ingots Arrive in Ports Successively, Regional Disparities in Secondary Lead Become Prominent [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

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