SMM Analysis: A Weekly Review of the Electrolytic Cell Industry, 2025-03-14-2025-03-20

Capacity-wise, the domestic alkaline electrolyzer market maintained 35.77 GW this week, with no new capacity added. In terms of deliveries, Ansjor Hydrogen Energy delivered one 1,000 Nm³/H alkaline unit to Australia, while Xibeiyou Hydrogen Energy delivered one 1,000 Nm³/H unit to a green hydrogen project in Jilin. On the PEM front, Hydrogen Hui Energy delivered one 50 Nm³/h unit to Europe. As of March 20, 2025, domestic companies (including overseas deliveries) have delivered a total of 10 MW of alkaline electrolyzers (data sourced from public information). Regarding electrolyzer orders, 46 units of 1,000 Nm³/H were confirmed this week, including 10 units for Xin Gong Green Hydrogen, 16 units for SunHydro, 12 units for CRRC Zhuzhou, and 8 units for Sany Hydrogen. Assuming all 46 orders are delivered by December 31, 2025, the total delivery volume of alkaline electrolyzers in 2025 will reach 1,350 MW, representing an increase of about 30%. Here are the key highlights of the electrolyzer sector this week: I. Corporate Collaboration and Project Implementation: Leading Players Accelerate Capacity Integration - Hydrogen Tong Energy's Jinhu Headquarters Launched - The first phase of the Jiangsu Jinhu Hydrogen Equipment Manufacturing Project, with an investment of 950 million yuan, is scheduled to start in H2 2025, with plans for batch delivery of alkaline/PEM electrolyzers in 2026-2027. - Core Data: Alkaline electrolyzers achieve a current density of 8,000 A/m², with a comprehensive energy consumption of 4.5 kWh/Nm³, having operated stably for three months; - PEM electrolyzers target off-grid hydrogen production, supported by the Yangtze River Delta R&D center and the Jinhu testing platform, leveraging local wind and solar power resources to form a "R&D-manufacturing-application" loop. II. Electrolysis Water Hydrogen Forum Fosters Cooperation Opportunities - The Wuxi forum from March 12-14 gathered companies such as Tianji Hydrogen, Shanghai Zhongqing, and Keri Power Conversion, focusing on four areas: - Technical Bottlenecks: Cost optimization of PEM electrolyzer membrane electrodes, material selection for AEM electrolyzers; - Engineering Challenges: Safety and current density balance of large-scale electrolyzers (inviting Peric Hydrogen and Shuangliang Hydrogen for roundtable discussions); - Application Scenarios: Off-grid hydrogen production, progress in direct seawater electrolysis technology; - Industry Chain Synergy: Breakthroughs in the localization of core components like catalysts and bipolar plates. III. Corporate Developments: Parallel Technological Iteration and Capacity Expansion - China Huaneng Patent Breakthrough - On March 14, it released a patent for "Electrolytic Hydrogen Production System Process Control Method," with core innovations: - Algorithm Optimization: Dynamically adjusting hydrogen storage tank pressure and electrolyzer electrical parameters based on a reinforcement learning model; - Response Speed: Addressing the issue of insufficient control accuracy under renewable energy fluctuations, enhancing system stability. - Dongfang Electric Zigong Production Line Tender - Public tender for the construction of one hydrogen electrolyzer production line, with an investment of 10 million yuan, covering design, manufacturing, and installation, with a delivery date of 60 days. Technical Specifications: - Production Line Positioning: Supporting the production of alkaline/PEM electrolyzers, suitable for large-scale green hydrogen projects; - Qualification Threshold: Bidders must have at least three cases of electrolyzer production lines worth over 2 million yuan each (post-2020). IV. Electrolyzer Tenders and Procurement: Accelerated Demand Release and Localization - Yumen Oilfield Tender Results - Two electrolyzer bids (Qing Qiji, SunHydro, Hydrogen Era) were announced, with a unit price of approximately 4.13 million yuan, including 13% VAT and on-site commissioning services. Industry Observations: - Price Trends: Compared to similar projects in 2024, prices have decreased by 8%-10%, reflecting accelerated localization; - Technology Preference: Alkaline electrolyzers remain dominant, but interest in PEM equipment is increasing. - Hebei Construction Investment Material Inquiry - On March 16, a pre-announcement for electrolyzer equipment inquiries was issued, involving purchases by the Taiyuan Coal Trading Center. Significance: - Traditional Energy Transition: Coal companies are accelerating their layout in green hydrogen application scenarios; - Regional Synergy: Concentrated release of electrolyzer demand in North China, with supporting policies likely to follow. V. Industry Trend Outlook - Technology Route Competition: - Alkaline Electrolyzers: Significant cost advantages, but efficiency bottlenecks need to be addressed (current density limit of 8,000 A/m²); - PEM Electrolyzers: Suitable for off-grid scenarios, but membrane electrode costs need to decrease by more than 40% for widespread adoption. - Policy Support Directions: - Post-Subsidy Phase: Companies need to focus on optimizing "electricity cost ratio," as demonstrated by Huaneng's patent; - Local Pilots: Regions like Jiangsu and Shanxi are promoting local industry chain development through project implementation. - Market Concentration: - Head Effect: Order volumes for companies like Hydrogen Tong and SunHydro are growing, potentially leading to industry consolidation; - Localization: The localization rate of core components (catalysts, bipolar plates) has increased from 30% in 2024 to over 50% in 2025.

SMM

SMM Analysis: A Weekly Review of the Electrolytic Cell Industry, 2025-03-14-2025-03-20

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