Macro Boost vs End-User Order Rejection Operating Rates May See Three Consecutive Drops Amid High Copper Prices [SMM Refined Copper Rod Weekly Review]

Mar 21, 2025, at 3:03 am

Macro Push vs End-User Order Rejection: Operating Rates May See a Third Consecutive Drop Amid High Copper Prices Copper Cathode Rod: The weekly (3.14-3.2) operating rate of major domestic copper cathode rod enterprises unexpectedly dropped to 69.93%, down 5.21 percentage points WoW, 2.31 percentage points lower than expected. During the week, under the combined influence of macro and fundamental factors, copper prices continued to rise. Only some downstream enterprises gradually accepted or released orders with a bullish outlook, while most reduced their orders and cargo pick-up due to high prices.

Copper Cathode Rod: The weekly (3.14-3.2) operating rate of major domestic copper cathode rod enterprises dropped more than expected to 69.93%, down 5.21 percentage points WoW, 2.31 percentage points lower than the forecast. During the week, under the resonance of macro and fundamental factors, copper prices continued to rise. Only some downstream enterprises gradually accepted or released bullish orders, while most reduced orders and cargo pick-up due to high prices. The current pickup volume still mainly consisted of previous low-price orders. On this basis, copper cathode rod enterprises faced inventory buildup pressure again, leading to a further decline in the operating rate. With limited opportunities for copper prices to correct, concerns over future consumption among copper rod enterprises intensified. In terms of specific inventories, due to the lower operating rate and firm premiums, raw material inventories of copper cathode rod enterprises continued to destock, down 1.68% WoW, recording 41,050 mt. This week, finished product inventories of copper cathode rod enterprises increased by 12.88% WoW, reaching 70,100 mt, affected by slower cargo pick-up from downstream. Looking ahead, with the increase in finished product inventories of copper cathode rod enterprises and the suppression of high copper prices, end-use consumption is unlikely to grow, and downstream purchasing will become even more cautious. It is expected that the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises will continue to decline by 1.19 percentage points WoW next week (3.21-3.27), recording 68.74%.

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Macro Boost vs End-User Order Rejection Operating Rates May See Three Consecutive Drops Amid High Copper Prices [SMM Refined Copper Rod Weekly Review]

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