SMM March 28 News:
In the metal market:
Overnight, most base metals in the domestic market fell, with SHFE tin up 0.55%. SHFE copper fell 0.93%. SHFE nickel slightly declined. SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.82%, and SHFE zinc fell 0.97%. Additionally, alumina fell 0.75%.
Overnight, most ferrous metals series fell, with iron ore down 0.38%, stainless steel slightly up, rebar down 0.53%, and HRC down 0.27%. In the coking coal and coke sector: coking coal fell 1.06%, and coke fell 0.52%.
Overnight, LME metals mostly fell, with LME copper down 0.81%. LME zinc fell 1.96%, LME tin rose 0.52%, LME lead fell 2.46%, LME aluminum fell 1.84%. LME nickel fell 0.06%.
In the precious metals sector: Overnight, COMEX gold rose 1.54%, hitting a new historical high during the session, and continued to rise in the early morning of March 28. As of 8:20 AM on March 28, COMEX gold hit a new historical high of $3,103.7 per ounce! COMEX silver rose 3.21%. SHFE gold rose 1.09%, and SHFE silver rose 1.77%. Goldman Sachs on Wednesday raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast from $3,100 to $3,300 per ounce, citing stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and sustained central bank demand.
As of 8:20 AM on March 28, the overnight closing market
》Click to view SMM futures data dashboard
On the macro front:
Domestically:
【Three Ministries: Focus on Cultivating Smart Home, Smart Wearables, Smart Cycling, and Smart Elderly Care Consumption Scenarios】 The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Education, and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on the implementation plan for the digital transformation of the light industry. Deepen the application of AI empowerment. Support key enterprises in the home appliance, furniture, and lighting industries to develop data models and conduct application test verifications based on specific scenarios, creating a batch of AI technology application scenarios in intelligent manufacturing and smart homes. Encourage industry associations, research institutes, and other organizations to promote the scenario-based application of AI technology, focusing on cultivating production-side scenarios such as collaborative design, intelligent production, online detection, preventive maintenance, and smart marketing, as well as consumption-side scenarios such as smart homes, smart wearables, smart cycling, and smart elderly care. Conduct analysis and diagnosis of the industry chain and supply chain in the light industry based on AI technology, strengthen cross-regional industry chain cooperation, and enhance the resilience and security level of important industry chains and supply chains. 》Click for details
【PBOC Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng: Will Adjust RRR and Interest Rates Based on Domestic and International Economic and Financial Situations】 PBOC Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng stated at the Boao Forum for Asia sub-forum "Finding Monetary and Financial Stability in an Unstable World" that the current domestic and international environments are undergoing profound changes, with global supply chains continuously affected. China's domestic economic structure is also constantly adjusting. Against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty, China has clearly adopted a moderately loose monetary policy. The PBOC has repeatedly cut RRR and interest rates, supporting economic development through monetary policy adjustments. The policy stance is clear: China will adjust RRR and interest rates based on domestic and international economic and financial situations.
【National Energy Administration: Coordinate New Energy Local Consumption and Outbound Transmission Channel Construction】 On March 27, Wang Hongzhi, Party Secretary and Director of the National Energy Administration, led a team to Xinjiang to conduct on-site research on local energy enterprises and major energy projects, focusing on new energy local consumption and outbound transmission, clean and efficient development and utilization of traditional energy, energy technology innovation, and promoting the development of the private economy in the energy sector. Extensive exchanges and discussions were held to promote the energy industry to implement the new energy security strategy with higher standards. This year, the National Energy Administration will increase policy supply to promote the development of the private economy in the energy sector, actively respond to and solve prominent issues, encourage more private capital to participate in the development, construction, and operation of the energy sector, create a good industry ecosystem, continuously stimulate private investment vitality, and support the development of the private economy. (Cailian Press)
On the US dollar:
Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.28% to 104.26. The S&P 500 index closed lower on Thursday, as the latest US tariff measures hit General Motors and Ford Motor stocks hard. According to CCTV News, on March 26, US President Trump signed an executive order at the White House, announcing a 25% tariff on all imported cars. The related measures will take effect on April 2. Thursday's US data showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week declined, but the market reacted little. Other data showed that US economic growth in Q4 was slightly more robust than previously estimated. After the US Fed decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged last week, the market is now waiting for the US personal consumption expenditure data to be released on Friday to determine the future monetary policy path.
On other currencies:
Recently, the market remains skeptical about the tariff policies continuously promoted by US President Trump, while the situation in Ukraine is not yet completely clear, and the European economic recovery also faces multiple challenges. Against this backdrop, the upward momentum of the euro is temporarily limited. Market sentiment is relatively cautious, focusing on the speeches of ECB and US Fed officials. The latest statement from ECB President Lagarde is the focus of the market, which may provide new guidance for exchange rates. (Huitong Finance)
On data:
Today, the UK January goods trade balance - seasonally adjusted, UK January seasonally adjusted trade balance, UK February seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate, Germany April Gfk consumer confidence index, UK Q4 production method GDP annual rate final, Germany March seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone March economic sentiment index, Eurozone March industrial sentiment index, Eurozone March consumer confidence index final, US February personal spending monthly rate, US February PCE price index annual rate, US February core PCE price index annual rate, Canada January seasonally adjusted GDP monthly rate, US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final, and other data will be released.
Additionally, It is worth noting that 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will speak on the economy; the Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from the March monetary policy meeting; the 2025 Zhongguancun Forum Annual Meeting will be held in Beijing from March 27 to 31, co-hosted by the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the China Association for Science and Technology, and the Beijing Municipal Government.
On crude oil:
Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US oil up 0.37% and Brent oil up 0.4%. The market is assessing the impact of tightening crude oil supply and US tariff policies on the global economy.
Market participants are weighing the risks of escalating trade conflicts. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said: "The biggest downside risk for the oil market right now is concerns about tariffs, which could slow demand." Suvro Sarkar, head of the energy industry team at DBS Bank in Asia, said that due to the uncertainty of US policies and pressure on demand, the bank does not expect oil prices to return to the higher levels at the beginning of 2025.
US crude oil inventory data released on Wednesday showed that US supply is tightening, with last week's inventory decreasing by 3.3 million barrels, compared to an expected decrease of 956,000 barrels. (Webstock Inc.)
