In February, automobile production and sales increased by over 30% YoY. This year, NEV production and sales may reach 16 million units? [SMM Special Topic]

On March 11, 2025, CAAM released the operation status of the automotive industry for February 2025, and the Passenger Car Association also released relevant data for the passenger car market in February 2025. According to CAAM, after the Chinese New Year in February this year, corporate production and business activities accelerated, with new product launches and promotional campaigns intensifying, significantly boosting market vitality. Automotive production and sales in February saw rapid YoY growth... SMM has compiled relevant data on the power battery and NEV markets for February 2025 for readers' reference. Automotive Sector: CAAM: February Automotive Production and Sales Both Surged Over 34%, January-February Production and Sales Increased Over 13% In February, automotive production and sales reached 2.103 million and 2.129 million units, down 14.1% and 12.2% MoM, respectively, but up 39.6% and 34.4% YoY. From January to February, automotive production and sales totaled 4.553 million and 4.552 million units, up 16.2% and 13.1% YoY, respectively. The production growth rate expanded by 14.5 percentage points compared to January, while the sales growth rate expanded by 13.7 percentage points. CAAM: February NEV Production and Sales Up 91.5% and 87.1% YoY, January-February NEV Production and Sales Both Up 52% In February, NEV production and sales reached 888,000 and 892,000 units, up 91.5% and 87.1% YoY, respectively. NEV sales accounted for 41.9% of total new car sales. From January to February, NEV production and sales totaled 1.903 million and 1.835 million units, both up 52% YoY, with NEV sales accounting for 40.3% of total new car sales. CAAM: February Automotive Exports Down 6.2% MoM, Up 16.9% YoY CAAM data shows that automotive exports in February reached 441,000 units, down 6.2% MoM but up 16.9% YoY. NEV exports in February were 131,000 units, down 12.6% MoM but up 60.5% YoY. From January to February, automotive exports totaled 911,000 units, up 10.9% YoY, while NEV exports reached 282,000 units, up 54.5% YoY. The Passenger Car Association also released data on the passenger car market for February 2025. According to the association, retail sales of passenger cars in February reached 1.386 million units, up 26.0% YoY but down 22.8% MoM. Cumulative retail sales from January to February totaled 3.179 million units, up 1.2% YoY. February retail sales were at a historical high for the month, and the market showed strong performance with positive growth in January-February. In the NEV sector, retail sales of passenger NEVs in February reached 686,000 units, up 79.7% YoY but down 7.8% MoM. Cumulative retail sales from January to February totaled 1.43 million units, up 35.5%. On the export front, the Passenger Car Association noted that as China's NEV scale advantage becomes evident and market expansion continues, Chinese-made NEV brands are increasingly recognized overseas. Despite recent external disruptions, exports of self-developed plug-in hybrids to developing countries have grown rapidly, with a bright outlook. In February, passenger NEV exports reached 118,000 units, up 27.8% YoY but down 15.2% MoM, accounting for 33.9% of total passenger car exports, up 4.4 percentage points YoY. Pure electric vehicles accounted for 59% of NEV exports (84% YoY), with A0+A00 class pure electric vehicles, a core focus, making up 50% of NEV exports (31% YoY). Regarding the passenger car market in February 2025, the Passenger Car Association commented that as the Chinese New Year fell on January 29, 2025, February marked the post-holiday opening month. With the gradual launch of the 2025 scrappage and renewal policies and automakers actively stabilizing price expectations, the overall price war in the car market was milder compared to previous years. According to the association's data tracking, the promotional intensity in the passenger car market increased by 5.7 percentage points in 2023, slowed to 3.2 percentage points in 2024, and further weakened significantly in January-February 2025, especially in the internal combustion engine vehicle market, where price promotions remained stable. Recent changes in the domestic and overseas macro environment have been better than expected, with consumer sentiment relatively stable. Coupled with automakers' marketing efforts during the Chinese New Year and the low sales base in February 2024, the car market in February this year outperformed the sluggish trend after the 2024 Chinese New Year, achieving a strong start post-holiday in February 2025. The Passenger Car Association highlighted the following characteristics of the February 2025 passenger car market: 1. February passenger car manufacturer wholesale and exports both hit record highs, with manufacturers striving for a strong post-holiday sales start. 2. January 2025 passenger car retail sales were down 245,000 units YoY, while February saw an increase of 280,000 units YoY, achieving a cumulative 1.2% YoY growth in domestic retail sales for January-February. 3. The price war was relatively mild, with traditional internal combustion engine vehicle promotions at 21.7% in February, down 0.2 percentage points MoM. Non-direct sales model NEV promotions gradually reached a high of 12.5%, up 1.6 percentage points MoM. 4. Self-owned brand passenger car wholesale share exceeded 70% in February, with domestic retail share surpassing 65%, both up around 11 percentage points YoY. 5. The circulation mindset stabilized in February 2025, with manufacturer inventory down 40,000 units and channel inventory up 30,000 units, resulting in an overall inventory decrease of 10,000 units, compared to a 170,000-unit decrease YoY. 6. Domestic NEV retail penetration rebounded to 49.5%, driven by scrappage and trade-in policies boosting NEV growth. 7. From January to February 2025, self-owned internal combustion engine passenger car exports were 420,000 units, down 5% YoY from 440,000 units, while self-owned NEV exports grew 111%, with NEVs accounting for 35% of self-owned exports, though internal combustion engine vehicles remained the core export driver. Power Battery Sector: February 2025 Power and Other Battery Sales at 90.0GWh, Up 140.7% YoY In February, China's power and other battery sales reached 90.0GWh, up 12.0% MoM and 140.7% YoY. Power battery sales were 66.9GWh, accounting for 74.3% of total sales, up 6.4% MoM and 98.8% YoY. Other battery sales were 23.1GWh, accounting for 25.7% of total sales, up 32.2% MoM and significantly higher YoY. From January to February, China's power and other battery cumulative sales totaled 170.4GWh, up 80.3% YoY. Power battery cumulative sales were 129.8GWh, accounting for 76.2% of total sales, up 54.3% YoY. Other battery cumulative sales were 40.6GWh, accounting for 23.8% of total sales, up 291.1% YoY. February 2025 China Power Battery Installations at 34.9GWh, Up 94.1% YoY In February, China's power battery installations reached 34.9GWh, down 10.1% MoM but up 94.1% YoY. Ternary battery installations were 6.4GWh, accounting for 18.5% of total installations, down 24.6% MoM and 7.2% YoY. LFP battery installations were 28.4GWh, accounting for 81.5% of total installations, down 6.0% MoM but up 158.0% YoY. From January to February, China's power battery cumulative installations totaled 73.6GWh, up 46.5% YoY. Ternary battery cumulative installations were 15.0GWh, accounting for 20.4% of total installations, down 23.3% YoY. LFP battery cumulative installations were 58.6GWh, accounting for 79.6% of total installations, up 199.9% YoY. BYD Continues to Dominate in February, Xiaomi's New Car Sparks Over 300 Million Discussions! Recently, several automakers released their February sales data, with all 12 A/H-listed automakers tracked by Caixin reporters reporting YoY growth. Among them, BYD, XPeng Motors, Leap Motor, and BAIC BluePark achieved multiple-fold growth. As the leading EV manufacturer, BYD continued its dominance in January, securing the top spot in car sales with 322,800 units, up 163.95% YoY. Market expectations suggest that after launching the high-end autonomous driving system "Eye of Heaven" in February, BYD's overall sales may further increase with the release of new autonomous driving versions of its models. Among new automakers, XPeng Motors continued to lead with over 30,000 units delivered in February 2025, totaling 30,453 units, up 570% YoY. XPeng Motors has now exceeded 30,000 units in deliveries for four consecutive months. From January to February 2025, XPeng Motors delivered a total of 60,803 units, up 375% YoY. Li Auto delivered 26,263 units in February 2025, up 29.7% YoY. As of February 28, 2025, Li Auto's cumulative deliveries reached 1,190,062 units. Leap Motor delivered 25,287 units in February, up 285% YoY, highlighting its growing competitiveness and trust in the NEV market. NIO delivered 13,192 units in February, up 62.2% YoY. The NIO brand delivered 9,143 units, up 12.4% YoY, while the Ledao brand delivered 4,049 units. As of now, NIO's cumulative deliveries reached 698,619 units, with the NIO brand accounting for 667,897 units and the Ledao brand for 30,722 units. BAIC BluePark, though its February sales of 6,227 units were modest compared to other new automakers, saw a YoY increase of 401.77%, demonstrating its potential. Xiaomi Motors delivered over 20,000 units of the SU 7 in February, marking the fifth consecutive month of deliveries exceeding 20,000 units, with cumulative deliveries surpassing 180,000 units. On February 27, the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra was officially launched, priced at 529,900 yuan with a 20,000 yuan deposit refundable within 7 days if not locked in. Orders placed before 24:00 on March 31 enjoy benefits worth up to 90,000 yuan. The car's prototype, with a super horsepower of 1,548PS, ranked eighth in the 2025 global supercar horsepower top 10, yet its price is considered a "horizon" among the top 10 models. Its release sparked extensive discussions on social media, showcasing Xiaomi's inherent ability to generate buzz. Regarding the February car market, CAAM commented that after the Chinese New Year, corporate production and business activities accelerated, with new product launches and promotional campaigns intensifying, significantly boosting market vitality. Automotive production and sales in February saw rapid YoY growth.In January-February, the new round of trade-in policy was expanded and implemented early, stimulating demand through enterprise technology upgrades and product renewals, leading to steady growth in auto production and sales. Among them, passenger vehicles continued to perform well, the commercial vehicle market showed signs of recovery, and NEVs stood out with rapid growth in production and sales. The strong start of the automotive industry laid the foundation for a successful Q1. Looking ahead to March, the CPCA expects 21 working days in March 2025, the same as in March 2024. With industries quickly returning to normal operations after the Chinese New Year holiday, MoM growth in production and sales in March is expected to be robust. The post-Chinese New Year period is a crucial time for new product launches, with many producers introducing new models. Driven by national consumption promotion policies, many provinces and cities have introduced corresponding measures, and the full resumption of offline events such as auto shows will also accelerate the gathering of interest. With recent low prices of lithium carbonate and other materials, producers can continue to optimize the cost structure and product iterations of NEV models, and market attention is expected to remain high. Additionally, the CPCA predicts that policy subsidies and incentives in the automotive industry will reach new highs in 2025, becoming a key factor in driving overall market prosperity and accelerating the transition of NEV consumption to mass adoption. The expansion of scrappage policies is expected to result in 5 million units of scrappage and renewal this year, with scrappage subsidies amounting to around 90 billion yuan, while stable and strong replacement policies across regions are expected to facilitate the replacement of 10 million units, totaling nearly 130 billion yuan. In terms of NEVs, the CPCA stated that this year's NEV production and sales are expected to reach around 16 million units, generating over 2 trillion yuan in sales. 2025 is the final year of the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy, and under the current new car sales market size, it is estimated to release around 200 billion yuan in tax benefits. Combined, this amounts to over 400 billion yuan, which, relative to 5 trillion yuan in auto sales, represents a historically unprecedented level of subsidy support, providing an exceptionally strong boost to the development of the auto market. On March 8, CAAM released an article stating that since August 2024, the Canadian government has implemented a series of trade restrictions on Chinese imports, including a 100% tax surcharge on EVs imported from China. On March 8, the Ministry of Commerce issued its first anti-discrimination investigation ruling against Canada (Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 11 of 2025). CAAM believes that the Ministry of Commerce's ruling on Canada's restrictive measures against China complies with WTO rules and is a normal move to safeguard industry development. CAAM firmly supports the decision made in the announcement. Additionally, it stated that the development of China's EV industry is based on its comparative advantages and is the result of open competition. Chinese EVs are welcomed by global consumers, including those in Canada, and have made significant contributions to global climate change mitigation and green transformation. The association hopes that the Chinese government will continue to strengthen communication and consultation with relevant Canadian parties to jointly maintain global economic and trade cooperation order and make positive contributions to the sustainable development of the global automotive industry and energy transition. Additionally, this week coincided with the Two Sessions, where the automotive industry, as a pillar of the domestic economy, saw its manufacturing sector surpass real estate in GDP contribution in 2023. In recent years, national support for the automotive sector has continued to increase. During the Two Sessions, representatives naturally focused on the automotive industry, NEVs, solid-state batteries, ESS, and related fields, offering active suggestions. SMM compiled the relevant proposals from representatives during this year's Two Sessions. For details, please refer to "Two Sessions Automotive Industry Proposals Overview: Involving Orderly Competition in the Auto Market, Optimizing NEV License Plate Design, etc."

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In February, automobile production and sales increased by over 30% YoY. This year, NEV production and sales may reach 16 million units? [SMM Special Topic]

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