SMM

Silver production in March rebounded MoM but declined YoY. The sustainability of growth in April will depend on the grade of raw materials and the release of recycled silver capacity.

The structural characteristics of domestic silver production in March: silver production increased by 4.05% MoM, mainly due to the resumption of production at maintenance enterprises in north-west China (contributing the main increment) + the precious metal market driving smelters in Henan/Yunnan to prioritize processing high-grade silver ore. It decreased by 1.4% YoY, reflecting that local maintenance (e.g., some enterprises' operating rates dropped sharply by 30% in March) and raw material constraints still exist.

Silver production in 2025Q1 recorded a 7.4% YoY increase, mainly driven by the bull market of precious metal prices in Q1 2025, which stimulated enterprises to increase production.

Outlook for April's production: new capacity coexists with bottlenecks. On one hand, the end of maintenance + the increase in recycled silver operations support production. On the other hand, factors such as the decline in silver grade in mines and the expected decrease in imports of silver-containing mineral resources may continue to limit the increase in mined silver, and attention should be paid to the transmission of raw material costs.